Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
April 18, 2014, 03:52:37 pm
HomePredMockPollEVCalcAFEWIKIHelpLogin Register
News: Don't forget to get your 2013 Gubernatorial Endorsements and Predictions in!

+  Atlas Forum
|-+  Election Archive
| |-+  2012 Elections (Moderators: Mr. Morden, Bacon King, Sheriff Buford TX Justice)
| | |-+  Which Scenario Is Likely?
« previous next »
Pages: [1] Print
Poll
Question: Which Scenario Is Likely?
Scenario 1   -14 (37.8%)
Scenario 2   -19 (51.4%)
Scenario 3   -4 (10.8%)
Show Pie Chart
Total Voters: 37

Author Topic: Which Scenario Is Likely?  (Read 975 times)
Clinton 2016
diskymike44
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 803


View Profile
« on: April 13, 2012, 04:40:47 pm »
Ignore



Unemployment drops to 7.4,gas is around $2.56,Hiring picks up,Obama rating rises to mid to high 60s.









Unemployment rises to 9.4 and gas goes up but Obama wins by a smaller victory.
 







Everything goes bad Unemployment rises to 12+,Stocks plunge,War with Iran with them threatening to launch nukes everywhere results a romney landslide.
Logged
perdedor
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2628
United States


View Profile
« Reply #1 on: April 13, 2012, 04:56:41 pm »
Ignore

All indicators point to scenario 1 being the most likely, though I don't think Obama wins South Carolina.
Logged

TXMichael
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 797
United States


View Profile
« Reply #2 on: April 13, 2012, 05:16:55 pm »
Ignore

Not 3

Vermont goes Republican?  Massachusetts and Rhode Island go Republican?  However Maine (with all the electoral votes), Minnesota and one Nebraska elector go Democratic?

If there is a GOP landslide it will not be 3.
Logged

Proposed 2012 GOP election slogans

1.  Defeat the economy!  Defeat Obama!
2.  More government control over Women's bodies!
3.  Vote conservative, vote for failure!
4.  Vote weakness, vote Republican!
R2D2
20RP12
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 21656
Germany


View Profile
« Reply #3 on: April 13, 2012, 05:18:07 pm »
Ignore

Scenario 2 is the one that's going to happen.
Logged

Lt. Governor TJ
TJ in Cleve
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4370
United States


View Profile
« Reply #4 on: April 13, 2012, 05:21:54 pm »
Ignore

1 and 3 are pretty unlikely, so 2 by default. The employment rate isn't going back up to 12 and gas will not be $2.56 a gallon any time in the remote future without something crazy happening.
Logged
Fargobison
Jr. Member
**
Posts: 91
View Profile
« Reply #5 on: April 13, 2012, 05:22:57 pm »
Ignore

If unemployment went to 9.4 that map would look a lot worse for Obama. Give Romney SC and #1 would probably look ok but I don't see that happening(especially gas prices).
« Last Edit: April 13, 2012, 05:24:29 pm by Fargobison »Logged
IDS Ex-Speaker Ben Kenobi
Ben Kenobi
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2626
United States


View Profile
« Reply #6 on: April 13, 2012, 05:31:35 pm »
Ignore

Wow, is number 1 modest.
Logged

"By not voting, you would let someone win who wants to destroy the regions, raise taxes, remove guns from the street, nationalize transit, expand abortion coverage, a gut the military." - Hagrid
5280
MagneticFree
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2659
United States


View Profile
« Reply #7 on: April 13, 2012, 05:42:57 pm »
Ignore

Alot of Democrats on the forum are hopeful of their messiah, I don't buy it.

I would say option 2.5
Logged

Paul/Cruz 2016!
Del Tachi
Republican95
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1621


View Profile
« Reply #8 on: April 13, 2012, 05:45:53 pm »
Ignore

None of these scenarios are "likely".

The most likely, however, is option 3 just because it Option 1 is impossible (Obama winning SC but not MO) and Obama will not win re-election if unemployment jumps to 9.4%. 
Logged
D-MOcrat
Adam Griffin
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4487
Greece


Political Matrix
E: -7.10, S: -5.91

View Profile
« Reply #9 on: April 13, 2012, 05:46:48 pm »
Ignore

I picked Scenario 2, but I think it will be a bit more optimistic than that (Perhaps Scenario 1.5). I also can't see SC going before MO, MT, AZ and GA.
Logged



hopper
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1424


View Profile
« Reply #10 on: April 13, 2012, 06:36:22 pm »
Ignore

Scenario 2 though you flip Ohio to the Dems and Indiana to the Republicans.
Logged
R2D2
20RP12
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 21656
Germany


View Profile
« Reply #11 on: April 13, 2012, 06:38:41 pm »
Ignore

None of these scenarios are "likely".

The most likely, however, is option 3 just because it Option 1 is impossible (Obama winning SC but not MO) and Obama will not win re-election if unemployment jumps to 9.4%. 

You're saying it's more likely that all but apocalyptic conditions will occur, causing Romney to win all but four states and a congressional district in Nebraska than it is for Obama to win re-election with 9.4% unemployment?

>Republican logic
>Seems legit
Logged

Ray Goldfield
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 751


View Profile
« Reply #12 on: April 13, 2012, 06:46:21 pm »
Ignore

Option 2 or option 2.5, which basically looks like this.



Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Iowa, and Colorado could go Romney in a "landslide". Possibly Michigan or New Mexico, but I doubt it.
Logged
Frodo
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 13287
United States


View Profile WWW
« Reply #13 on: April 13, 2012, 06:48:57 pm »
Ignore



Unemployment drops to 7.4,gas is around $2.56,Hiring picks up,Obama rating rises to mid to high 60s.

Overall I agree with this map, but how is President Obama more likely to win South Carolina rather than Georgia in this scenario? 
Logged

R2D2
20RP12
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 21656
Germany


View Profile
« Reply #14 on: April 13, 2012, 06:52:52 pm »
Ignore

Option 2 or option 2.5, which basically looks like this.



Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Iowa, and Colorado could go Romney in a "landslide". Possibly Michigan or New Mexico, but I doubt it.

Uh, no.
Logged

Snowstalker
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 15442


Political Matrix
E: -8.39, S: -3.30

View Profile
« Reply #15 on: April 13, 2012, 09:31:52 pm »
Ignore

Why would Maine not flip before VT, MA, etc?
Logged

Easter Bushie
BushOklahoma
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 20421
Kenya


View Profile
« Reply #16 on: April 13, 2012, 09:58:55 pm »
Ignore

I'm going with option 2.5  I think Option 2 is the most likely, but I think a small Romney victory is definitely not out of the realm of possibility.  It will not be a landslide either way.
Logged

You are that rare species: a Bible-thumpin' Liberal.
Miles
MilesC56
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 12975
United States


Political Matrix
E: 0.26, S: 6.26

View Profile WWW
« Reply #17 on: April 13, 2012, 10:07:40 pm »
Ignore

Somewhere between 1 and 2.
Logged

Emperor Scott
Scott
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 17169
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.94, S: -5.74

View Profile WWW
« Reply #18 on: April 13, 2012, 10:08:28 pm »
Ignore

Obama wins Indiana but loses Ohio?  No.
Logged



Senator Alfred F. Jones
Alfred F. Jones
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 7545
United States


View Profile
« Reply #19 on: April 13, 2012, 10:22:10 pm »
Ignore

A slight tweaking of 2.
Logged



Alfred is the only acceptable option

Clinton they've discovered our lovechild Sad

LastVoter
seatown
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4469
Thailand


View Profile
« Reply #20 on: April 13, 2012, 10:45:58 pm »
Ignore

Option 2 with Ohio instead of Indiana.
Logged
Cory
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1121


P
View Profile
« Reply #21 on: April 14, 2012, 03:59:18 pm »
Ignore

Scenario 2 though you flip Ohio to the Dems and Indiana to the Republicans.
Logged
LastVoter
seatown
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4469
Thailand


View Profile
« Reply #22 on: April 14, 2012, 04:06:52 pm »
Ignore

Scenario 2 though you flip Ohio to the Dems and Indiana to the Republicans.
Now that I think about it the whole point of this exercise was to see if the moderate Obama victory is likelier with unusual states than the two extreme scenarios. If you are to take these at face-value, option 1 is most likely because in option 3 more states would go Democratic since the base is more enthusiastic about Obama than the GOP.
Logged
Antonio V
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 28712
France


Political Matrix
E: -6.45, S: -4.87

P P P

View Profile
« Reply #23 on: April 14, 2012, 04:08:53 pm »
Ignore

SC in the first map and IN in the second make no sense.
Logged

Quote from: IRC
22:15   ComradeSibboleth   this is all extremely terrible and in all respects absolutely fycking dire.
rbt48
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 741


View Profile WWW
« Reply #24 on: April 14, 2012, 04:27:32 pm »
Ignore

I think option 2.5 is the most realistic.  By the way, Obama is not going to carry Nebraska's CD-2.  The state legislature saw to that in redistricting last year.  The way they split up Sarpy County, Obama wouldn't have carried it in 2008 and he is much less popular here than he was 4 years ago.
Logged

Pages: [1] Print 
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Logout

Powered by SMF 1.1.19 | SMF © 2013, Simple Machines