Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
November 22, 2014, 04:23:27 pm
HomePredMockPollEVCalcAFEWIKIHelpLogin Register
News: Atlas Hardware Upgrade complete October 13, 2013.

+  Atlas Forum
|-+  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
| |-+  Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections (Moderator: Joe Republic)
| | |-+  Is Georgia the solid south for Republicans?
« previous next »
Pages: [1] Print
Author Topic: Is Georgia the solid south for Republicans?  (Read 704 times)
old timey villain
cope1989
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1747


View Profile
« on: April 13, 2012, 07:37:07 pm »
Ignore

After three Republican gubernatorial landslides and an increasingly Republican legislature, can Democrats make a comeback anytime soon? Should the democrats try to put together a new coalition?
Logged

Can't we all just get along?
Miles
MilesC56
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 16076
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.03, S: 5.74

P P P
View Profile
« Reply #1 on: April 13, 2012, 07:54:47 pm »
Ignore

For now, the Republicans will be safe b/c of redistricting. In the long run, the areas that are growing the fastest, like Gwinnett and Cobb counties will become friendlier to Democrats.
Logged


Yelnoc
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 6635
United States


View Profile WWW
« Reply #2 on: April 13, 2012, 07:55:28 pm »
Ignore

No, demographics will continue to trend D.  By the end of the decade, Georgia will be a swing state.  Next decade, I imagine the Republican gerrymanders will be reversed.
Logged

Your Atlas experience will be 100x better if you turn signatures off. Trust me.
Frodo
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 13800
United States


View Profile WWW
« Reply #3 on: April 13, 2012, 08:27:32 pm »
Ignore

No, demographics will continue to trend D.  By the end of the decade, Georgia will be a swing state.  Next decade, I imagine the Republican gerrymanders will be reversed.

I can only see Georgia being a swing state at the presidential level -perhaps as early as this year.  Obama did come remarkably close in 2008. 
Logged

Lowly Griff
Adam Griffin
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 6160
Greece


View Profile
« Reply #4 on: April 13, 2012, 08:36:02 pm »
Ignore

It will remain Republican-tilted in U.S. House races and a fair amount of the state legislative seats due to redistricting. Senators, Governor, President and all statewide offices will be an open game by 2016. I expect that a bad result for Democrats in 2016 will be comparable to the 2008 result. It'll be an uphill battle, though. All of the statewide offices and alternating Senators are elected during midterms, which obviously favors Republicans.
Logged

The Obamas and Joe Biden visit the state in a highly publicized campaign event for Landrieu. Barack proudly declares Mary Landrieu to be a vital ally, reminding the audience that Obamacare wouldn't have passed without her vote, and Michelle accidentally calls her "Molly Langrove". Biden makes an offensive gaffe about Cajuns.

They call me PR
Progressive Realist
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 5525
United States


View Profile
« Reply #5 on: April 14, 2012, 11:53:53 pm »
Ignore

No, demographics will continue to trend D.  By the end of the decade, Georgia will be a swing state.  Next decade, I imagine the Republican gerrymanders will be reversed.

What about the growth of the exurbs?
Logged
Lowly Griff
Adam Griffin
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 6160
Greece


View Profile
« Reply #6 on: April 15, 2012, 07:52:44 pm »
Ignore

No, demographics will continue to trend D.  By the end of the decade, Georgia will be a swing state.  Next decade, I imagine the Republican gerrymanders will be reversed.

What about the growth of the exurbs?

The rapid growth in the exurbs is fueled mainly by new settlers to the area. Statistical advantage for the Democrats. Cobb and Gwinnett (suburbs) are already close to flipping. Cherokee, Forsyth and Hall (~600,000 people) will remain heavily Republican probably forever and will probably remain split across 2 CDs in order to bolster Republican support in the area (the new 9th and 11th CDs). Cobb and Gwinnett (~1,600,000) will cancel out any of the exurb growth as it trends Democratic.

The Democrats' floor in Georgia is quickly improving. Look at the 2010 Governor's race. Roy Barnes, who was chastised out of office in 2002 by teachers and Confederate fools, still managed to get 43% of the vote. In a mid-term. In 2010. Deal barely got 53% (with a 4% diversion to Monds). Republicans - generally speaking - who aren't facing an incompetent Democrat are now topping out in Georgia at 51-53%.

Barnes was highly unpopular outside Democratic circles here. With his efforts to furlough teachers and his success in finally removing the Stars and Bars, he was about as well-liked as Joe Lieberman. Even though he's a "state" candidate and former governor, he was probably as unpopular as a national candidate, and yet did better than Kerry did here in an election cycle that significantly favored Republicans.

What percentage of the vote did the previous gubernatorial candidate get? 38.22%. In 2006, which was a good national year for Democrats. The Libertarian candidate also got around 4% this time, too. To close the margin ten points between 2006 in 2010 at the state level in Georgia is huge, especially when you consider that 2006 was a +D year and 2010 was a +R year.
« Last Edit: April 16, 2012, 01:03:23 am by Mittosis »Logged

The Obamas and Joe Biden visit the state in a highly publicized campaign event for Landrieu. Barack proudly declares Mary Landrieu to be a vital ally, reminding the audience that Obamacare wouldn't have passed without her vote, and Michelle accidentally calls her "Molly Langrove". Biden makes an offensive gaffe about Cajuns.

freepcrusher
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2332
United States


View Profile
« Reply #7 on: April 15, 2012, 08:10:34 pm »
Ignore

For now, the Republicans will be safe b/c of redistricting.

It's hard for the republicans to gerrymander southern states. Democrats are stronger at the local level then they are at the national level.
Logged

-1.38, -1.38
Sibboleth
Realpolitik
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 57019
Saint Helena


View Profile WWW
« Reply #8 on: April 16, 2012, 12:34:58 pm »
Ignore

Cobb and Gwinnett (suburbs) are already close to flipping.

McCain polled 54% in both. Of course that's very low for the way things had been, but Obama did stunningly well in places like that pretty much everywhere.
Logged

"I have become entangled in my own data, and my conclusion stands in direct contradiction to the initial idea from which I started. Proceeding from unlimited freedom, I end with unlimited despotism. I will add, however, that there can be no solution of the social formula except mine."
Lowly Griff
Adam Griffin
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 6160
Greece


View Profile
« Reply #9 on: April 16, 2012, 11:55:03 pm »
Ignore

Cobb and Gwinnett (suburbs) are already close to flipping.

McCain polled 54% in both. Of course that's very low for the way things had been, but Obama did stunningly well in places like that pretty much everywhere.

Definitely. I'm not necessarily sure there will be huge gains in those counties between 2008 and 2012. It's possible though that the result could be preserved or even improved upon; there are some interesting things to observe:

Election Results - Gwinnett:

2002 - Governor

Barnes (D) - 36.74%
Perdue (R) - 59.77%

2004 - President

Kerry (D) - 33.46%
Bush (R) - 65.71%

2006 - Governor

Taylor (D) - 29.02%
Perdue (R) - 66.19%

2008 - President

Obama (D) - 44.35%
McCain (R) - 54.56%

2010 - Governor

Barnes (D) - 37.65%
Deal (R) - 57.48%

Census Demographics - Gwinnett:

2000:

Total Population: 588,488

White: 373,315 (63.4%)
Black: 81,804 (13.9%)
Latino: 64,137 (10.9%)
Asian: 45,993 (7.8%)

2010:

Total Population 805,321 (+36.9%)

White: 322,128 (44.0%)
Black: 190,051 (23.6%)
Latino: 161, 870 (20.1%)
Asian: 85,364 (10.6%)

----

Gwinnett's a majority-minority county now. Cobb's demographics are similar, but it's still 56% white and the rate of change is occurring more slowly; however, the whites are more progressive in Cobb than in Gwinnett.

The Republican gains in 2010 compared to 2008 results are not bad given the candidate issues I mentioned earlier, the fact that Republicans always slaughter Democrats in mid-terms in Georgia now, and the heavy national and state Republican advantages in 2010. Yet they were unable to make it back to their 2004/2006 results, which would have been easily obtainable if there was a huge backlash present and waiting in these areas. The whites may be mad, but they matter less than ever.
Logged

The Obamas and Joe Biden visit the state in a highly publicized campaign event for Landrieu. Barack proudly declares Mary Landrieu to be a vital ally, reminding the audience that Obamacare wouldn't have passed without her vote, and Michelle accidentally calls her "Molly Langrove". Biden makes an offensive gaffe about Cajuns.

Pages: [1] Print 
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Logout

Powered by SMF 1.1.20 | SMF © 2013, Simple Machines