2023-2024 College Basketball Discussion Thread

[GeorgiaModerate]

OK, UConn, I believe.

[JGibson]

The Fighting Illini's path to glory ends tonight with a 77-52 loss to defending champions UCONN. They managed to tie it 23-23 late in the first half, but after that, the wheels fell off for Illini.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Really enjoyable Elite Eight.  I'll be rooting for NC State to go all the way.

Bracket challenge standings (points earned / possible points remaining):

ER 73 / 48
OSR 70 / 0
GM 67 / 16
Ferguson 66 /48
JGibson 65 / 0
Harry 59 / 0
YE 56 / 48

OSR, JGibson, Harry, and YE are eliminated - the first three because they can't get any more points, and YE because he can only get some from UConn and will remain behind ER even if the Huskies win.

Possible outcomes:

If UConn beats Alabama, ER wins no matter what happens in the championship game.

If Alabama wins the championship, Ferguson wins.

If Alabama beats UConn and loses the championship game, I win (by one point).

[muon2]

For over 30 years I've tracked the rate of upsets in the men's tournament. By upset I mean a team winning that is at least two seeds lower, since statistically a game like 8 vs 9 or 4 vs 5 are even. I've found that the tournament upset rate tends to be between 20 and 25%.

This year the first round was upset-rich with 8 upsets in 28 possible games (8 vs 9 are excluded). That's almost 29% and explains the quickly busted brackets. The second round only had 1 upset in 15 possible games, bring the tournament to 9 out of 43 or 21%. That's right in line with historical averages, what in statistics is called the reversion to the mean.

There are 6 games in the next round I'll be watching to see if this is an average year for upsets or becomes an outlier.

Sweet sixteen: 4/6 upsets
Elite eight: 1/3 upset

New total 14/52 = 27% upset rate. Even if both number 1's win in the final four 14/54 is 26% so the year counts as above the normal range for upsets.

[YE]

For over 30 years I've tracked the rate of upsets in the men's tournament. By upset I mean a team winning that is at least two seeds lower, since statistically a game like 8 vs 9 or 4 vs 5 are even. I've found that the tournament upset rate tends to be between 20 and 25%.

This year the first round was upset-rich with 8 upsets in 28 possible games (8 vs 9 are excluded). That's almost 29% and explains the quickly busted brackets. The second round only had 1 upset in 15 possible games, bring the tournament to 9 out of 43 or 21%. That's right in line with historical averages, what in statistics is called the reversion to the mean.

There are 6 games in the next round I'll be watching to see if this is an average year for upsets or becomes an outlier.

Sweet sixteen: 4/6 upsets
Elite eight: 1/3 upset

New total 14/52 = 27% upset rate. Even if both number 1's win in the final four 14/54 is 26% so the year counts as above the normal range for upsets.

What’s the record? 2006 or the pandemic year?

[muon2]

For over 30 years I've tracked the rate of upsets in the men's tournament. By upset I mean a team winning that is at least two seeds lower, since statistically a game like 8 vs 9 or 4 vs 5 are even. I've found that the tournament upset rate tends to be between 20 and 25%.

This year the first round was upset-rich with 8 upsets in 28 possible games (8 vs 9 are excluded). That's almost 29% and explains the quickly busted brackets. The second round only had 1 upset in 15 possible games, bring the tournament to 9 out of 43 or 21%. That's right in line with historical averages, what in statistics is called the reversion to the mean.

There are 6 games in the next round I'll be watching to see if this is an average year for upsets or becomes an outlier.

Sweet sixteen: 4/6 upsets
Elite eight: 1/3 upset

New total 14/52 = 27% upset rate. Even if both number 1's win in the final four 14/54 is 26% so the year counts as above the normal range for upsets.

What’s the record? 2006 or the pandemic year?

I haven't saved my individual years, just the aggregate. I could go back and test past years to see.

[Illiniwek]

Go NC State. As a backup, go UConn.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Duke loss to NC State was embarrassing

[nclib]

So proud of my alma mater N.C. State.

Unfortunately, I did not see the link for the Atlas bracket in time, but did it on ESPN.com and am 97.1% percentile (79 points), and have UConn over Purdue in the Final game.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

UCONN V Purdue and UCONN wins

[JGibson]

The Illini ladies win the inaugural edition of the WBIT, as they beat Villanova 71-57. This is a big leap forward for their program, which lags behind their men's counterpart in prestige.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Seton Hall won the NIT final over Indiana State, 79-77, thanks to a closing 9-0 run in the last three minutes.  Indiana State had three chances to win in the final seconds, but two 3-pointers were blocked and a final desperation 3 was short.

[JGibson]

The Women's final is set: undefeated #1 South Carolina v. #1 Iowa. Can Caitlin Clark end her college career with a win? Stay tuned.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

For over 30 years I've tracked the rate of upsets in the men's tournament. By upset I mean a team winning that is at least two seeds lower, since statistically a game like 8 vs 9 or 4 vs 5 are even. I've found that the tournament upset rate tends to be between 20 and 25%.

This year the first round was upset-rich with 8 upsets in 28 possible games (8 vs 9 are excluded). That's almost 29% and explains the quickly busted brackets. The second round only had 1 upset in 15 possible games, bring the tournament to 9 out of 43 or 21%. That's right in line with historical averages, what in statistics is called the reversion to the mean.

There are 6 games in the next round I'll be watching to see if this is an average year for upsets or becomes an outlier.

Sweet sixteen: 4/6 upsets
Elite eight: 1/3 upset

New total 14/52 = 27% upset rate. Even if both number 1's win in the final four 14/54 is 26% so the year counts as above the normal range for upsets.

What’s the record? 2006 or the pandemic year?

I haven't saved my individual years, just the aggregate. I could go back and test past years to see.

My counter argument is that I think the upset stats should be reset around 2011.  First, that was the year that the NCAA Tournament expanded to 68 teams, which in effect moved the s-curve by two spots.  That made the low seeds slightly stronger than equivalent seeds would have been before*.

The second reason is that it roughly marks when college basketball went away from the traditional four years at one school.  High seeds that were older and had been playing together for longer were probably less susceptible to being upset.

*That's also why I oppose making the play-in games all at-large teams.  Eliminating a couple of the weakest teams before the Round of 64 will actually make the remaining lower seeds slightly stronger on aggregate and minimize the number of abject mismatches in the first round.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Can't wait for UConn v Purdue Mon

[GeorgiaModerate]

That was one of the fastest (i.e. shortest duration) games I've seen in a long time.

[GeorgiaModerate]

ER has clinched the bracket challenge.  Standings after the semifinals:

ER 89 (32 possible points remaining)
YE 72 (32)
OSR 70 (0)
GM 67 (0)
Ferguson 66 (0)
JGibson 65 (0)
Harry 59 (0)

This order of finish won't change, as ER and YE both picked UConn and nobody else did.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I am so glad for SC

[JGibson]

The South Carolina Gamecocks are perfect, as they beat Iowa Hawkeyes to win the 2024 Women's Tournament.

Caitlin Clark may have went without a national title, but there is no denying the success she imprinted into the records for college basketball, regardless of gender

[GeorgiaModerate]

There are reports that John Calipari is leaving Kentucky to become the next head coach at Arkansas.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

So much for Purdue, go Huskies