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| | |-+  2008 U.S. Presidential Election Results (Moderator: Delicious Steak Pentagram)
| | | |-+  Biggest surprise in the 2008 presidential election?
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Question: The result in which state was, in your personal view, the biggest surprise?
Alaska
Arkansas
Colorado
Florida
Georgia
Indiana
Kentucky
Louisiana
Montana
Nebraska's 2nd CD
Nevada
North Carolina
North Dakota
Ohio
Oklahoma
Virginia
West Virginia
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Author Topic: Biggest surprise in the 2008 presidential election?  (Read 5250 times)
diarrhea
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« on: April 14, 2012, 05:42:32 pm »
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?
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« Reply #1 on: April 15, 2012, 05:39:44 am »
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Nevada, not for who won it but because the margin was far bigger than expected.
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« Reply #2 on: April 15, 2012, 08:50:05 am »
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The Nebraska 2nd--I don't remember any talk about it. IN and NC were tossups, so not surprising.
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« Reply #3 on: April 15, 2012, 10:38:48 am »
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I didn't know enough about what were Republican and what were Democratic states back then (I had an idea, but nothing too nuanced), but in retrospect without any real thought, I guess I'd say Indiana.
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« Reply #4 on: April 15, 2012, 01:21:33 pm »
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Like Cathcon, I didn't really follow state-level polling in detail then, but I was amazed that Obama got 365 electoral votes. All of my predictions had him getting about 320.
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« Reply #5 on: April 15, 2012, 02:09:26 pm »
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I didn't even know there was a place you could go to look up electoral vote counts and stuff like that. Tongue My election night story is my history teacher giving each of us a blank US map and telling us to go home that night and fill it in as states were called. The only states I have any memory of are Ohio ("this is important!" I had no idea why), Missouri (Me: Shouldn't it go Republican? They still haven't called it. Uh-oh) and Florida (That's not going Republican either! They still haven't called it! No!). I remember filling in the vast majority of the map but for a few, FL, MO, and a couple others. I wish I could find that map and see how far I'd gotten.
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« Reply #6 on: April 15, 2012, 02:25:38 pm »
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I actually found it in a stack of folders stashed in a part of my room. I guess I should actually throw that stuff away, but this is what I had down before I was sent to bed (in real life colors of course, as that was what I colored it in):


I guess at the tiem for me it was Florida given that I was really hoping it'd go for McCain. The next couple days or so I looked up the final results online and much to my dismay, it went for Obama.
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« Reply #7 on: April 15, 2012, 04:44:55 pm »
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Indiana.
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« Reply #8 on: April 15, 2012, 06:11:35 pm »
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The Nebraska 2nd--I don't remember any talk about it. IN and NC were tossups, so not surprising.

Would agree, but voted Indiana because it's easier to swing 1 CD than a state equal to 9 (or 13 CD's). Was impressed but not as surprised with NC since there are a lot of Northerners moving here and we have a higher black population to begin with.
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« Reply #9 on: April 15, 2012, 09:30:20 pm »
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I'd say Florida. Just because it was not as close as it should have been.  Florida has never been a good state for Obama demographically.
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« Reply #10 on: April 28, 2012, 12:47:16 am »
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Indiana simply for the fact at how sharply it swung and the President ended up winning it
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« Reply #11 on: April 28, 2012, 06:01:23 am »
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Difference between 538.com's forecasted margin and actual results :

- Grey : within 1%
- Between 1% and 2,5%
- Between 2,5% and 5%
- Between 5% and 7,5%
- Between 7,5% and 10%
- More than 10%

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« Reply #12 on: May 01, 2012, 03:30:50 pm »
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Indiana totally surprised me.  I throught that McCain would, at worst, carry it by 1 or 2 %.

Since I live in Omaha and knew how close the Democrat came to unseating Lee Terry in 2006, this was not a big surprise.  But the margin was slim for Obama.  He trailed until the provisional ballots were tallied.
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« Reply #13 on: January 16, 2013, 07:33:17 pm »
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Indiana and Virginia suprised me. I thought McCain would win Indiana and Virginia.
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« Reply #14 on: May 30, 2013, 04:40:28 pm »
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I remember plenty of analysts saying that Obama had a chance in NE-02, so I wasn't at all surprised when he won there.  I actually wasn't surprised by any of the results.  North Carolina, Virginia, and Indiana were all considered states where Obama had a chance.  Obama led in Virginia for much of the campaign, so that was probably one of the least surprising.  I would probably have to say Missouri, since it was really the only swing state that McCain carried, and that was only by the barest of margins, and even that wasn't a big surprise since it was close in the polls.
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« Reply #15 on: July 15, 2013, 10:58:51 pm »
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1) NE-2
2) Indiana
3) Missouri
4) North Carolina
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« Reply #16 on: October 25, 2013, 03:05:43 pm »
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1) NE-2
2) Indiana
3) Missouri
4) North Carolina
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« Reply #17 on: December 28, 2013, 04:54:42 pm »
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1) NE-2
2) Indiana
3) Missouri
4) North Carolina
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« Reply #18 on: December 28, 2013, 07:05:40 pm »
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NC going to Barry was a big surprise for almost everyone I know including me.  I knew a few pro Obama supporters but almost everyone in my county and those nearby were pro McCain for the most part. I remember at 8:30 seeing Obama up by 100,000 with near half in and  I just sat and stared at the TV for a while, I couldn't believe it.  Compared to 2004 it was a total change across the state and I couldn't believe it.

I didn't get into politics and this forum until the next year, and by 2012 I was ready for anything, but NC and VA going Dem was quite the surprise.  I wish I had tht awareness that year because it was a great year for politics.
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« Reply #19 on: December 28, 2013, 08:31:08 pm »
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I was not following politics as much as I do now so then I would say Virginia. Now though I would say that Obama taking Indiana was a bit of a surprise especially when you consider that last year it was called for Romney at 7 p.m.
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« Reply #20 on: December 28, 2013, 09:09:31 pm »
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For me it was Georgia. I know Obama didn't win it but he came close without even contesting the state. All my life people had been telling me that Georgia was conservative/republican/red/bush country so it was a pleasant surprise to see a Democrat make inroads here. It made me hopeful for future elections in Georgia.

Besides that probably Indiana. Maybe I wasn't following the election as closely as I should have, but I never heard much about Indiana being a swing state.
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« Reply #21 on: December 29, 2013, 08:40:36 am »
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Indiana definitely. That result came out of nowhere for me. I didn't really understand the splitting of electoral votes in Nebraska at the time so I can't vouch for that.
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« Reply #22 on: February 13, 2014, 03:38:23 pm »
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Probably Indiana, though my final prediction map looked like this (pretty bizzare in retrospect):


351 Obama-187 McCain
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