Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
July 24, 2014, 02:08:51 pm
HomePredMockPollEVCalcAFEWIKIHelpLogin Register
News: Please delete your old personal messages.

+  Atlas Forum
|-+  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
| |-+  U.S. Presidential Election Results
| | |-+  2008 U.S. Presidential Election Results (Moderator: True Federalist)
| | | |-+  Biggest surprise in the 2008 presidential election?
« previous next »
Pages: [1] Print
Poll
Question: The result in which state was, in your personal view, the biggest surprise?
Alaska
Arkansas
Colorado
Florida
Georgia
Indiana
Kentucky
Louisiana
Montana
Nebraska's 2nd CD
Nevada
North Carolina
North Dakota
Ohio
Oklahoma
Virginia
West Virginia
Show Pie Chart

Author Topic: Biggest surprise in the 2008 presidential election?  (Read 3637 times)
diarrhea
Rookie
*
Posts: 26
View Profile
« on: April 14, 2012, 05:42:32 pm »
Ignore

?
Logged
Scottish Robb Stark
Antonio V
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 30157
France


View Profile
« Reply #1 on: April 15, 2012, 05:39:44 am »
Ignore

Nevada, not for who won it but because the margin was far bigger than expected.
Logged



Robb of the House Stark, First of his Name, Lord of Winterfell and King in the North



Quote from: IRC
22:15   ComradeSibboleth   this is all extremely terrible and in all respects absolutely fycking dire.

"A reformist is someone who realizes that, when you bang your head on a wall, it's the head that breaks rather than the wall."

Peppino, from the movie Baaria
A.G. Snowstalker
Snowstalker
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 16919
Palestinian Territory, Occupied


Political Matrix
E: -8.06, S: -4.96

View Profile
« Reply #2 on: April 15, 2012, 08:50:05 am »
Ignore

The Nebraska 2nd--I don't remember any talk about it. IN and NC were tossups, so not surprising.
Logged

#Ready4Nixon
Cathcon
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 14886
United States


View Profile
« Reply #3 on: April 15, 2012, 10:38:48 am »
Ignore

I didn't know enough about what were Republican and what were Democratic states back then (I had an idea, but nothing too nuanced), but in retrospect without any real thought, I guess I'd say Indiana.
Logged

Miles
MilesC56
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 14156
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.68, S: 3.65

View Profile
« Reply #4 on: April 15, 2012, 01:21:33 pm »
Ignore

Like Cathcon, I didn't really follow state-level polling in detail then, but I was amazed that Obama got 365 electoral votes. All of my predictions had him getting about 320.
Logged


#Ready4Nixon
Cathcon
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 14886
United States


View Profile
« Reply #5 on: April 15, 2012, 02:09:26 pm »
Ignore

I didn't even know there was a place you could go to look up electoral vote counts and stuff like that. Tongue My election night story is my history teacher giving each of us a blank US map and telling us to go home that night and fill it in as states were called. The only states I have any memory of are Ohio ("this is important!" I had no idea why), Missouri (Me: Shouldn't it go Republican? They still haven't called it. Uh-oh) and Florida (That's not going Republican either! They still haven't called it! No!). I remember filling in the vast majority of the map but for a few, FL, MO, and a couple others. I wish I could find that map and see how far I'd gotten.
Logged

#Ready4Nixon
Cathcon
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 14886
United States


View Profile
« Reply #6 on: April 15, 2012, 02:25:38 pm »
Ignore

I actually found it in a stack of folders stashed in a part of my room. I guess I should actually throw that stuff away, but this is what I had down before I was sent to bed (in real life colors of course, as that was what I colored it in):


I guess at the tiem for me it was Florida given that I was really hoping it'd go for McCain. The next couple days or so I looked up the final results online and much to my dismay, it went for Obama.
Logged

politicus
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3636
Denmark


View Profile
« Reply #7 on: April 15, 2012, 04:44:55 pm »
Ignore

Indiana.
Logged

Every time I see Denmark I just want to punch it in the face...
nclib
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 8761


View Profile
« Reply #8 on: April 15, 2012, 06:11:35 pm »
Ignore

The Nebraska 2nd--I don't remember any talk about it. IN and NC were tossups, so not surprising.

Would agree, but voted Indiana because it's easier to swing 1 CD than a state equal to 9 (or 13 CD's). Was impressed but not as surprised with NC since there are a lot of Northerners moving here and we have a higher black population to begin with.
Logged



[George W. Bush] has shattered the myth of white supremacy once and for all. -- Congressman Charles Rangel (D-NY)

"George Bush supports abstinence. Lucky Laura."
- sign seen at the March for Women's Lives, 4/25/04

Del Tachi
Republican95
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2212


View Profile
« Reply #9 on: April 15, 2012, 09:30:20 pm »
Ignore

I'd say Florida. Just because it was not as close as it should have been.  Florida has never been a good state for Obama demographically.
Logged

Chaddyr23
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 334
United States


Political Matrix
E: -0.19, S: -5.83

View Profile
« Reply #10 on: April 28, 2012, 12:47:16 am »
Ignore

Indiana simply for the fact at how sharply it swung and the President ended up winning it
Logged
Scottish Robb Stark
Antonio V
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 30157
France


View Profile
« Reply #11 on: April 28, 2012, 06:01:23 am »
Ignore

Difference between 538.com's forecasted margin and actual results :

- Grey : within 1%
- Between 1% and 2,5%
- Between 2,5% and 5%
- Between 5% and 7,5%
- Between 7,5% and 10%
- More than 10%

Logged



Robb of the House Stark, First of his Name, Lord of Winterfell and King in the North



Quote from: IRC
22:15   ComradeSibboleth   this is all extremely terrible and in all respects absolutely fycking dire.

"A reformist is someone who realizes that, when you bang your head on a wall, it's the head that breaks rather than the wall."

Peppino, from the movie Baaria
rbt48
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 755


View Profile WWW
« Reply #12 on: May 01, 2012, 03:30:50 pm »
Ignore

Indiana totally surprised me.  I throught that McCain would, at worst, carry it by 1 or 2 %.

Since I live in Omaha and knew how close the Democrat came to unseating Lee Terry in 2006, this was not a big surprise.  But the margin was slim for Obama.  He trailed until the provisional ballots were tallied.
Logged

Thomas_S_Richard106
ThomasSmith106
Newbie
*
Posts: 9
Canada


View Profile
« Reply #13 on: January 16, 2013, 07:33:17 pm »
Ignore

Indiana and Virginia suprised me. I thought McCain would win Indiana and Virginia.
Logged
Oldiesfreak1854
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 8626
United States


Political Matrix
E: 0.13, S: 1.91

P P P

View Profile WWW
« Reply #14 on: May 30, 2013, 04:40:28 pm »
Ignore

I remember plenty of analysts saying that Obama had a chance in NE-02, so I wasn't at all surprised when he won there.  I actually wasn't surprised by any of the results.  North Carolina, Virginia, and Indiana were all considered states where Obama had a chance.  Obama led in Virginia for much of the campaign, so that was probably one of the least surprising.  I would probably have to say Missouri, since it was really the only swing state that McCain carried, and that was only by the barest of margins, and even that wasn't a big surprise since it was close in the polls.
Logged

Quote from: Dwight D. Eisenhower
There is nothing wrong with America that the faith, love of freedom, intelligence, and energy of her citizens cannot cure.


JRP1994
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 726


View Profile
« Reply #15 on: July 15, 2013, 10:58:51 pm »
Ignore

1) NE-2
2) Indiana
3) Missouri
4) North Carolina
Logged
Flo
JacobTiver
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4915
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.39, S: -7.29

P P
View Profile WWW
« Reply #16 on: October 25, 2013, 03:05:43 pm »
Ignore

1) NE-2
2) Indiana
3) Missouri
4) North Carolina
Logged



Quote from: Nan Rich
I got my biggest compliment of the campaign today ... when I found out I got an attack email from the Republican Party of Florida.


TDAS04
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4074


View Profile
« Reply #17 on: December 28, 2013, 04:54:42 pm »
Ignore

1) NE-2
2) Indiana
3) Missouri
4) North Carolina
Logged

Economic:  -2.45
Social:  -6.26
tb78
tb75
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4669
United States


View Profile
« Reply #18 on: December 28, 2013, 07:05:40 pm »
Ignore

NC going to Barry was a big surprise for almost everyone I know including me.  I knew a few pro Obama supporters but almost everyone in my county and those nearby were pro McCain for the most part. I remember at 8:30 seeing Obama up by 100,000 with near half in and  I just sat and stared at the TV for a while, I couldn't believe it.  Compared to 2004 it was a total change across the state and I couldn't believe it.

I didn't get into politics and this forum until the next year, and by 2012 I was ready for anything, but NC and VA going Dem was quite the surprise.  I wish I had tht awareness that year because it was a great year for politics.
Logged
crash1984
Newbie
*
Posts: 10
View Profile
« Reply #19 on: December 28, 2013, 08:31:08 pm »
Ignore

I was not following politics as much as I do now so then I would say Virginia. Now though I would say that Obama taking Indiana was a bit of a surprise especially when you consider that last year it was called for Romney at 7 p.m.
Logged
old timey villain
cope1989
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1730


View Profile
« Reply #20 on: December 28, 2013, 09:09:31 pm »
Ignore

For me it was Georgia. I know Obama didn't win it but he came close without even contesting the state. All my life people had been telling me that Georgia was conservative/republican/red/bush country so it was a pleasant surprise to see a Democrat make inroads here. It made me hopeful for future elections in Georgia.

Besides that probably Indiana. Maybe I wasn't following the election as closely as I should have, but I never heard much about Indiana being a swing state.
Logged

Can't we all just get along?
Supersonic
SupersonicVenue
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4965
United Kingdom


Political Matrix
E: 3.61, S: 0.35


View Profile
« Reply #21 on: December 29, 2013, 08:40:36 am »
Ignore

Indiana definitely. That result came out of nowhere for me. I didn't really understand the splitting of electoral votes in Nebraska at the time so I can't vouch for that.
Logged

Being a Libertarian is like having a fever, either you sweat it out or you die from it.
MATTROSE94
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1558
United States


View Profile
« Reply #22 on: February 13, 2014, 03:38:23 pm »
Ignore

Probably Indiana, though my final prediction map looked like this (pretty bizzare in retrospect):


351 Obama-187 McCain
Logged

Term limits is used by those, who are bitter because they can't beat someone at the ballot box.

Like I said 1960 was a f***ing crazy election year. It's like everyone woke up and wondered "who the hell should I vote for?"
Pages: [1] Print 
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Logout

Powered by SMF 1.1.19 | SMF © 2013, Simple Machines