Biggest surprise in the 2008 presidential election?
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  Biggest surprise in the 2008 presidential election?
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Question: The result in which state was, in your personal view, the biggest surprise?
#1
Alaska
#2
Arkansas
#3
Colorado
#4
Florida
#5
Georgia
#6
Indiana
#7
Kentucky
#8
Louisiana
#9
Montana
#10
Nebraska's 2nd CD
#11
Nevada
#12
North Carolina
#13
North Dakota
#14
Ohio
#15
Oklahoma
#16
Virginia
#17
West Virginia
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Author Topic: Biggest surprise in the 2008 presidential election?  (Read 10162 times)
diarrhea
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« on: April 14, 2012, 05:42:32 PM »

?
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #1 on: April 15, 2012, 05:39:44 AM »

Nevada, not for who won it but because the margin was far bigger than expected.
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Snowstalker Mk. II
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« Reply #2 on: April 15, 2012, 08:50:05 AM »

The Nebraska 2nd--I don't remember any talk about it. IN and NC were tossups, so not surprising.
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FEMA Camp Administrator
Cathcon
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« Reply #3 on: April 15, 2012, 10:38:48 AM »

I didn't know enough about what were Republican and what were Democratic states back then (I had an idea, but nothing too nuanced), but in retrospect without any real thought, I guess I'd say Indiana.
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Miles
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« Reply #4 on: April 15, 2012, 01:21:33 PM »

Like Cathcon, I didn't really follow state-level polling in detail then, but I was amazed that Obama got 365 electoral votes. All of my predictions had him getting about 320.
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Cathcon
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« Reply #5 on: April 15, 2012, 02:09:26 PM »

I didn't even know there was a place you could go to look up electoral vote counts and stuff like that. Tongue My election night story is my history teacher giving each of us a blank US map and telling us to go home that night and fill it in as states were called. The only states I have any memory of are Ohio ("this is important!" I had no idea why), Missouri (Me: Shouldn't it go Republican? They still haven't called it. Uh-oh) and Florida (That's not going Republican either! They still haven't called it! No!). I remember filling in the vast majority of the map but for a few, FL, MO, and a couple others. I wish I could find that map and see how far I'd gotten.
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« Reply #6 on: April 15, 2012, 02:25:38 PM »

I actually found it in a stack of folders stashed in a part of my room. I guess I should actually throw that stuff away, but this is what I had down before I was sent to bed (in real life colors of course, as that was what I colored it in):


I guess at the tiem for me it was Florida given that I was really hoping it'd go for McCain. The next couple days or so I looked up the final results online and much to my dismay, it went for Obama.
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politicus
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« Reply #7 on: April 15, 2012, 04:44:55 PM »

Indiana.
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nclib
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« Reply #8 on: April 15, 2012, 06:11:35 PM »

The Nebraska 2nd--I don't remember any talk about it. IN and NC were tossups, so not surprising.

Would agree, but voted Indiana because it's easier to swing 1 CD than a state equal to 9 (or 13 CD's). Was impressed but not as surprised with NC since there are a lot of Northerners moving here and we have a higher black population to begin with.
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Del Tachi
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« Reply #9 on: April 15, 2012, 09:30:20 PM »

I'd say Florida. Just because it was not as close as it should have been.  Florida has never been a good state for Obama demographically.
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Chaddyr23
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« Reply #10 on: April 28, 2012, 12:47:16 AM »

Indiana simply for the fact at how sharply it swung and the President ended up winning it
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #11 on: April 28, 2012, 06:01:23 AM »

Difference between 538.com's forecasted margin and actual results :

- Grey : within 1%
- Between 1% and 2,5%
- Between 2,5% and 5%
- Between 5% and 7,5%
- Between 7,5% and 10%
- More than 10%

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rbt48
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« Reply #12 on: May 01, 2012, 03:30:50 PM »

Indiana totally surprised me.  I throught that McCain would, at worst, carry it by 1 or 2 %.

Since I live in Omaha and knew how close the Democrat came to unseating Lee Terry in 2006, this was not a big surprise.  But the margin was slim for Obama.  He trailed until the provisional ballots were tallied.
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Thomas_S_Richard106
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« Reply #13 on: January 16, 2013, 07:33:17 PM »

Indiana and Virginia suprised me. I thought McCain would win Indiana and Virginia.
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Oldiesfreak1854
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« Reply #14 on: May 30, 2013, 04:40:28 PM »

I remember plenty of analysts saying that Obama had a chance in NE-02, so I wasn't at all surprised when he won there.  I actually wasn't surprised by any of the results.  North Carolina, Virginia, and Indiana were all considered states where Obama had a chance.  Obama led in Virginia for much of the campaign, so that was probably one of the least surprising.  I would probably have to say Missouri, since it was really the only swing state that McCain carried, and that was only by the barest of margins, and even that wasn't a big surprise since it was close in the polls.
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JRP1994
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« Reply #15 on: July 15, 2013, 10:58:51 PM »

1) NE-2
2) Indiana
3) Missouri
4) North Carolina
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Flake
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« Reply #16 on: October 25, 2013, 03:05:43 PM »

1) NE-2
2) Indiana
3) Missouri
4) North Carolina
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TDAS04
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« Reply #17 on: December 28, 2013, 04:54:42 PM »

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Dancing with Myself
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« Reply #18 on: December 28, 2013, 07:05:40 PM »

NC going to Barry was a big surprise for almost everyone I know including me.  I knew a few pro Obama supporters but almost everyone in my county and those nearby were pro McCain for the most part. I remember at 8:30 seeing Obama up by 100,000 with near half in and  I just sat and stared at the TV for a while, I couldn't believe it.  Compared to 2004 it was a total change across the state and I couldn't believe it.

I didn't get into politics and this forum until the next year, and by 2012 I was ready for anything, but NC and VA going Dem was quite the surprise.  I wish I had tht awareness that year because it was a great year for politics.
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crash1984
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« Reply #19 on: December 28, 2013, 08:31:08 PM »

I was not following politics as much as I do now so then I would say Virginia. Now though I would say that Obama taking Indiana was a bit of a surprise especially when you consider that last year it was called for Romney at 7 p.m.
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old timey villain
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« Reply #20 on: December 28, 2013, 09:09:31 PM »

For me it was Georgia. I know Obama didn't win it but he came close without even contesting the state. All my life people had been telling me that Georgia was conservative/republican/red/bush country so it was a pleasant surprise to see a Democrat make inroads here. It made me hopeful for future elections in Georgia.

Besides that probably Indiana. Maybe I wasn't following the election as closely as I should have, but I never heard much about Indiana being a swing state.
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Supersonic
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« Reply #21 on: December 29, 2013, 08:40:36 AM »

Indiana definitely. That result came out of nowhere for me. I didn't really understand the splitting of electoral votes in Nebraska at the time so I can't vouch for that.
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MATTROSE94
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« Reply #22 on: February 13, 2014, 03:38:23 PM »

Probably Indiana, though my final prediction map looked like this (pretty bizzare in retrospect):


351 Obama-187 McCain
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