Where is the race now? Maps?

[Likely Voter]

Well the RNC is over and sinking in. Besides the tracking polls we may not see major pollsters in the field until after the DNC. Currently the tracking polls average to a tie with Romney +1 with Rasmussen and Obama +1 in Gallup (Romney's speech is not factored in yet).

So where do you think the race is right now with any Romney bounce? (in PV)

Any predicted maps as to the state of the race?

Edit: the last poll option should be Romney + 3 "or more"

[Likely Voter]

My guess is Romney +1

Map:

Romney: 273
Obama: 265

Tipping point state: WI

[jaichind]

Romney +1.  After Dem convention it will be Obama +1.  Debates will decide election.  I suspect in the end Romney will run away with it and win with a significant margin.

[Negusa Nagast 🚀]

The race didn't move much. They news this weekend needed to be about Romney's speech and his platform but instead it's about how embarrassing Eastwood is. Well done Republicans!

[pbrower2a]

My guess is Obama +1...between the GOP and Democratic Conventions. The GOP Convention has been a bust for viewership, indicating that Romney, Ryan, etc. have either been preaching to the crowd or getting derision from partisan Democrats. 

Map:

Obama: 303
Romney: 235

Tipping point state: VA

[Frozen Sky Ever Why]

My guess is Obama +1...between the GOP and Democratic Conventions. The GOP Convention has been a bust for viewership, indicating that Romney, Ryan, etc. have either been preaching to the crowd or getting derision from partisan Democrats. 

Map:

Obama: 303
Romney: 235

Tipping point state: VA

Agree with your map but I think FL would still go Obama.

[Lief 🗽]

Too early to tell, it hasn't even been 24 hours since Romney's speech.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Right now: Romney+1, not that it does him any good as Obama still wins in the Electoral College: 289-249.

And that's before the DNC counterbounce.

[Lambsbread]

Romney + 1

My best guess:

Romney/Ryan - 285
Obama/Biden - 253

With tossups:

Obama/Biden - 233
Romney/Ryan - 206
Tossups - 99

[sg0508]

I doubt Romney is getting much of a bounce. The convention didn't have the feeling of "success".

In the end, I think Romney flips NC and IN and that's it. Everything else is status quo and I wouldn't put it past Obama to possibly flip MO this time, although it's unlikely.

[5280]

[後援会]

My guess is Romney +1

Map:

Romney: 273
Obama: 265

Tipping point state: WI

This. Though I actually think VA will be the tipping point state.

[Yelnoc]

Using Gallup and Rasmussen as a baseline, I couldn't tell you where this race is.  Haven't their tilt been proven already?

My gut says Obama +2, but honestly most people (even most voters) are trying not to think about this election. 

[California8429]

This but flip CO, IA, VA

[J. J.]

I'd say Romney +2. 

Right now, I'd say this:

In a fortnight, I'd be stunned if this was the same map

[zorkpolitics]

Tied or Romney +1

Obama 280 EV
Romney 258 EV

[angus]

It is a popular vote tie as of today.  (Rasmussen gives it Romney +4, but I think that was from Romney's RNC convention bounce.)

The EC is not tied, however.  Something like this, I suppose:

Obama 287
Romney 251

Florida is tricky.  If it swings--and it might--then it would be Romney 280.  

I should add that I'm not really certain how Iowa, Virginia, New Hampshire, or Ohio would vote today, if the election were held today.  I gave VA and NH and OH the benefit of the Romney bounce.  IA people are square, so their votes will be less affected by short-term bounces.  That is why I discounted the bounce there.  But in all those states, and Florida, it could go either way.  I expect lots of money to be spent in those five.