One thing about 2016 GOP presidential speculation

[Proud Lieberal from Northeast]

Assuming, of course, that field in 2016 will be widely open (AKA: no incumbent).

We seems to forget one key element while mentioning possible candidates like Marco Rubio or Rand Paul: 2010 freshmen class.

They are going to be up for reelection the very same year. And that is making a politician less likely to run for President. The most recent and most prominent example is John Edwards, retiring to run for President after one Senate term, thus skipping reelection. He didn't end up well.

[Chris B]

True.

That is why I think there's a decent chance Rubio may skip a 2016 Presidential run and focus on getting reelected to the Senate instead. Why give up a seat that is probably his as long as he wants it if he is young enough to conceivably hold off on running for President as far off a 2028?

Alternatively, I could see Paul deciding not to run for a second term to the Senate and just focusing on a Presidential run instead. Since his reelection prospects in KY may not be as bright.

[Emperor SJoyce]

True.

That is why I think there's a decent chance Rubio may skip a 2016 Presidential run and focus on getting reelected to the Senate instead. Why give up a seat that is probably his as long as he wants it if he is young enough to conceivably hold off on running for President as far off a 2028?

Alternatively, I could see Paul deciding not to run for a second term to the Senate and just focusing on a Presidential run instead. Since his reelection prospects in KY may not be as bright.

Paul's already filed to run for Senate; he could conceivably run for President and Senate at the same time a la Lieberman 2000, but it's not likely.

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0411/53404.html

[Assistant to the Regional Manager Cathcon]

I thought about this too and realized that. Still, if the opportunity presents itself, we could see at least one member of that class trying to run four years from now. I personally am waiting to jump on what Dallasfan termed the "Randwagon".

[RogueBeaver]

That why I never thought any Class of 2010ers would run, possibly excepting Paul.

[Proud Lieberal from Northeast]

Of course, in some states you can run for Senate and Presidency at the same time, but I don't think anyone would dear to pull "Lyndon Law" while running for President. Vice President is a diffrent thing, but that'd would certainly backfire.

[Mr. Morden]

Of course, it depends on whether Romney picks Rubio to be his running mate this time.  If he does, and he does an OK job on the campaign trail, then he'll be the early frontrunner for the 2016 nomination, and he'd be foolish to pass on a run in 2016.

Also, when is the Florida senate primary?  If Rubio runs for prez, but it's clear by March 2016 that he's not getting the nomination, couldn't he drop out of the presidential race and run for reelection for senate?  Couldn't Paul do so as well?  Haven't other candidates done that before?

[RogueBeaver]

Of course, it depends on whether Romney picks Rubio to be his running mate this time.  If he does, and he does an OK job on the campaign trail, then he'll be the early frontrunner for the 2016 nomination, and he'd be foolish to pass on a run in 2016.

Also, when is the Florida senate primary?  If Rubio runs for prez, but it's clear by March 2016 that he's not getting the nomination, couldn't he drop out of the presidential race and run for reelection for senate?  Couldn't Paul do so as well?  Haven't other candidates done that before?

In August. Rubio isn't getting the VP nod this year, he's been quite clear on that. As for candidates dropping out- sure, but Dole in '80 (IIRC) is the last time that happened.