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Author Topic: Your 2014 Targets:  (Read 1584 times)
morgieb
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« on: April 16, 2012, 12:54:05 am »
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Based on the 2016 Senate targets, who are your targets for the Governorship?

For me:

Maine (LePage)
Rhode Island (Chafee)
Pennsylvania (Corbett)
Florida (Scott)
Ohio (Kasich)
Michigan (Snyder)
Arizona (Brewer)
Texas (Perry)
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Joe Republic
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« Reply #1 on: April 16, 2012, 01:00:12 am »

Arizona (Brewer)

Ineligible, so this race will be open.
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Real Americans (and Big Sky Bob) demand to know.


I just slept for 11 hours, so I should need a nap today, but we'll see.
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« Reply #2 on: April 16, 2012, 07:43:03 am »
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Obviously way too early for such a list, but what the heck, in no particular order:

Paul LePage

Ovide Lamontagne (if he wins in 2012)

Maybe Lincoln Chaffee (although I'm not terribly invested in beating him tbh, but if someone must than better it be a Democrat than a Republican)

Maybe Nikki Haley (and only if Vincent Sheheen runs again, b/c correct me if I'm wrong, he's basically our best statewide candidate here)

Rick Scott (and still target the open seat if Scott loses his primary or doesn't run for reelection)

Maybe Rick Perry (depending on what the polls show, fundraising, and candidate quality, the Democrat would have to prove that he has a real chance of winning first)

John Kasich (if this isn't low hanging fruit, I don't know what is)

Rick Snyder

Maybe Terry Bransted (depending on candidate quality, polling, and fundraising)

Scott Walker (if he wins the recall, which I don't think he will if he faces Barrett)

Maybe Arizona's open seat (depending on candidate quality, fundraising, and polling)

Maybe Brian Sandoval (depending on candidate quality, fundraising, and polling)

Maybe Susanna Martinez (depending on candidate quality, fundraising, and polling)
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Miles
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« Reply #3 on: April 16, 2012, 11:52:32 pm »
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Obviously way too early for such a list, but what the heck, in no particular order:

Paul LePage

Ovide Lamontagne (if he wins in 2012)

Maybe Lincoln Chaffee (although I'm not terribly invested in beating him tbh, but if someone must than better it be a Democrat than a Republican)

Maybe Nikki Haley (and only if Vincent Sheheen runs again, b/c correct me if I'm wrong, he's basically our best statewide candidate here)

Rick Scott (and still target the open seat if Scott loses his primary or doesn't run for reelection)

Maybe Rick Perry (depending on what the polls show, fundraising, and candidate quality, the Democrat would have to prove that he has a real chance of winning first)

John Kasich (if this isn't low hanging fruit, I don't know what is)

Rick Snyder

Maybe Terry Bransted (depending on candidate quality, polling, and fundraising)

Scott Walker (if he wins the recall, which I don't think he will if he faces Barrett)

Maybe Arizona's open seat (depending on candidate quality, fundraising, and polling)

Maybe Brian Sandoval (depending on candidate quality, fundraising, and polling)

Maybe Susanna Martinez (depending on candidate quality, fundraising, and polling)


This.
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cope1989
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« Reply #4 on: April 17, 2012, 12:49:35 am »
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Hopefully we can get rid of Ol' Saxby Chambliss here in Georgia. We came close in 2008, but by 2014 I think the demographics might be favorable to oust him.

Of course if he retires and it's an open election, our chances are even better.
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jfern
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« Reply #5 on: April 17, 2012, 12:57:23 am »
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PA, OH, FL, and MI have one party Republican rule, and enacted horrid gerrymanders.

Florida made it almost impossible to do voter drives. Rick Scott is terrible, but we knew that before he got elected. Florida voters are just complete retards.

Kasich - Maybe Strickland can make a comeback.

Corbett - I'm sure he's awful too.

Wisconsin would be listed but they're now a 2012 target.

In addition:

Maine - If the vote isn't split, I assume he goes down.

New Mexico - Should be a winnable governorship.
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SJoyce
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« Reply #6 on: April 17, 2012, 07:16:17 am »
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PA, OH, FL, and MI have one party Republican rule, and enacted horrid gerrymanders.

Florida made it almost impossible to do voter drives. Rick Scott is terrible, but we knew that before he got elected. Florida voters are just complete retards.

Kasich - Maybe Strickland can make a comeback.

Corbett - I'm sure he's awful too.

Wisconsin would be listed but they're now a 2012 target.

In addition:

Maine - If the vote isn't split, I assume he goes down.

New Mexico - Should be a winnable governorship.

Yes we are. But if y'all want to unseat Lord Voldemort in 2014, you have to get somebody to run who can win statewide. Unfortunately, the closest things you have to that are non-Democrat Charlie Crist and retiree Bob Graham (I guess you could get Bill Nelson too, if he loses re-election, or maybe even Reubin O'D. Askew). Better find someone... otherwise we could very well be looking at 4 more years of Governor Skeletor.
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jdb
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« Reply #7 on: April 17, 2012, 04:19:38 pm »
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Obviously way too early for such a list, but what the heck, in no particular order:

Paul LePage

Ovide Lamontagne (if he wins in 2012)

Maybe Lincoln Chaffee (although I'm not terribly invested in beating him tbh, but if someone must than better it be a Democrat than a Republican)

Maybe Nikki Haley (and only if Vincent Sheheen runs again, b/c correct me if I'm wrong, he's basically our best statewide candidate here)

Rick Scott (and still target the open seat if Scott loses his primary or doesn't run for reelection)

Maybe Rick Perry (depending on what the polls show, fundraising, and candidate quality, the Democrat would have to prove that he has a real chance of winning first)

John Kasich (if this isn't low hanging fruit, I don't know what is)

Rick Snyder

Maybe Terry Bransted (depending on candidate quality, polling, and fundraising)

Scott Walker (if he wins the recall, which I don't think he will if he faces Barrett)

Maybe Arizona's open seat (depending on candidate quality, fundraising, and polling)

Maybe Brian Sandoval (depending on candidate quality, fundraising, and polling)

Maybe Susanna Martinez (depending on candidate quality, fundraising, and polling)


This.

I forgot, add Corbett to the list
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tmthforu94
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« Reply #8 on: April 18, 2012, 05:57:54 pm »
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Republicans certainly don't have as much room for growth.

I'm guessing Arkansas has term-limits, so that'd be a nice pickup. I think the GOP may pick up another seat or two, probably in the Northeast.

Gubernatorial races are very hard to predict this far out, as the economy is a huge factor, as well as who the President is. Republicans could gain 4 or 5 more seats, or Democrats would win 12 or so.

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Mr.Phips
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« Reply #9 on: April 18, 2012, 07:06:46 pm »
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Republicans certainly don't have as much room for growth.

I'm guessing Arkansas has term-limits, so that'd be a nice pickup. I think the GOP may pick up another seat or two, probably in the Northeast.

Gubernatorial races are very hard to predict this far out, as the economy is a huge factor, as well as who the President is. Republicans could gain 4 or 5 more seats, or Democrats would win 12 or so.





If Republicans gained four or five more seats, the Democrats would be down to a record low 11 or 12 seats out of 50. 
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Miles
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« Reply #10 on: April 18, 2012, 07:14:44 pm »
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I'm guessing Arkansas has term-limits, so that'd be a nice pickup.


Except it will be pretty favorable to the Ds with Mike Ross or Dustin McDaniel as the nominee.
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Scott
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« Reply #11 on: April 18, 2012, 07:54:15 pm »
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I think the GOP may pick up another seat or two, probably in the Northeast.

No.
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morgieb
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« Reply #12 on: April 18, 2012, 08:03:43 pm »
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fwiw Nebraska, Arizona, Arkansas, Maryland and Massachusetts are open seats.

I think that some of those seats can become competitive with the right candidate. Don't see us winning Nebraska, but Arizona's achievable, although the midterm factor could wreck it.

Maryland and Massachusetts need a white knight, Arkansas doesn't.

(potentially) competitive Democrat seats:

Arkansas
Massachusetts
Maryland
Connecticut
Hawaii
Illinois

(potentially) competitive Republican seats:

Arizona
Florida
Georgia
Iowa
Maine
Michigan
Ohio
Oklahoma
Pennsylvania
South Carolina
Texas
(Wisconsin doesn't count due to the recall)
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tmthforu94
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« Reply #13 on: April 19, 2012, 11:36:17 am »
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I think the GOP may pick up another seat or two, probably in the Northeast.

No.
Care to elaborate, or are you going to just continue sticking to short, one-word answers so frequently?

If Obama's in his second term and the economy is still down, I think Republicans could certainly get a couple pickups in an environment similar to 2010. New Hampshire for one, which could go as early as 2012. In the right circumstances, Republicans could be in a position like 2010 where they had a shot in every state up there.
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Miles
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« Reply #14 on: April 19, 2012, 11:47:17 am »
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I think the GOP may pick up another seat or two, probably in the Northeast.

No.
Care to elaborate, or are you going to just continue sticking to short, one-word answers so frequently?

If Obama's in his second term and the economy is still down, I think Republicans could certainly get a couple pickups in an environment similar to 2010. New Hampshire for one, which could go as early as 2012. In the right circumstances, Republicans could be in a position like 2010 where they had a shot in every state up there.


All the New England seats have the potential to go R. Other than NH, CT and MA are the most likely to me; Malloy is really unpopular and Scott Brown could run for Governor if he loses this year.
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« Reply #15 on: April 19, 2012, 05:12:49 pm »
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Hickenlooper is a popular CO governor, so he'll probably win reelection in 2014.  He's quite popular with Republicans also, I don't have any problems with the guy.
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OC
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« Reply #16 on: April 19, 2012, 08:36:01 pm »
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Chafee, Corbett (Sestak), LePage, Kasick(Strickland) and Brewer (Goddard rematch). As far as SB Chambliss the hit list for the Senate is SD, LA, NJ and ME Chambliss should win comfortably.
« Last Edit: April 19, 2012, 08:55:28 pm by OC »Logged
RodPresident
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« Reply #17 on: April 20, 2012, 10:02:10 pm »
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WI, OH, FL, IA, PA, ME, NE, AZ and TX.
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AmericanNation
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« Reply #18 on: April 23, 2012, 11:34:33 am »
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Republicans certainly don't have as much room for growth.

I'm guessing Arkansas has term-limits, so that'd be a nice pickup. I think the GOP may pick up another seat or two, probably in the Northeast.

Gubernatorial races are very hard to predict this far out, as the economy is a huge factor, as well as who the President is. Republicans could gain 4 or 5 more seats, or Democrats would win 12 or so.


If Republicans gained four or five more seats, the Democrats would be down to a record low 11 or 12 seats out of 50. 
Democrats may trend near that historic low.  A 10 to 15 state party will naturally have problems winning 25 governor-ships.  Although it is possible, but not likely.  Financial problems in traditionally blue states will continue to produce GOP governors as democrats refuse to confront math.         
The Senate should also trend this way, but it hasn't.  I'm guessing that because a Senator doesn't actually have to do anything, is why democrats fair better.     
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tmthforu94
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« Reply #19 on: April 23, 2012, 11:45:33 am »
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Republicans certainly don't have as much room for growth.

I'm guessing Arkansas has term-limits, so that'd be a nice pickup. I think the GOP may pick up another seat or two, probably in the Northeast.

Gubernatorial races are very hard to predict this far out, as the economy is a huge factor, as well as who the President is. Republicans could gain 4 or 5 more seats, or Democrats would win 12 or so.


If Republicans gained four or five more seats, the Democrats would be down to a record low 11 or 12 seats out of 50. 
Democrats may trend near that historic low.  A 10 to 15 state party will naturally have problems winning 25 governor-ships.  Although it is possible, but not likely.  Financial problems in traditionally blue states will continue to produce GOP governors as democrats refuse to confront math.         
The Senate should also trend this way, but it hasn't.  I'm guessing that because a Senator doesn't actually have to do anything, is why democrats fair better.     
Democrats also have a better history of nominating decent candidates. I hate saying this, but I sometimes wish we nominated Senate candidates at the state convention. We would have most likely won in Nevada, Colorado, and Delaware if so, putting us at 50 seats. That being the case, there would be no doubt the GOP would take the Senate in 2012.
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AmericanNation
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« Reply #20 on: April 23, 2012, 01:02:29 pm »
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Republicans certainly don't have as much room for growth.

I'm guessing Arkansas has term-limits, so that'd be a nice pickup. I think the GOP may pick up another seat or two, probably in the Northeast.

Gubernatorial races are very hard to predict this far out, as the economy is a huge factor, as well as who the President is. Republicans could gain 4 or 5 more seats, or Democrats would win 12 or so.


If Republicans gained four or five more seats, the Democrats would be down to a record low 11 or 12 seats out of 50. 
Democrats may trend near that historic low.  A 10 to 15 state party will naturally have problems winning 25 governor-ships.  Although it is possible, but not likely.  Financial problems in traditionally blue states will continue to produce GOP governors as democrats refuse to confront math.         
The Senate should also trend this way, but it hasn't.  I'm guessing that because a Senator doesn't actually have to do anything, is why democrats fair better.     
Democrats also have a better history of nominating decent candidates. I hate saying this, but I sometimes wish we nominated Senate candidates at the state convention. We would have most likely won in Nevada, Colorado, and Delaware if so, putting us at 50 seats. That being the case, there would be no doubt the GOP would take the Senate in 2012.

A state convention can officially endorse a candidate for the primary, so maybe that could be looked at as more of a king-making process.  It typically requires about a 75% vote of official delegates?  Of course the people at the convention would have to get more serious and the primary voters would have to react accordingly. 

In 2010 , Wisconsin's convention shocked people by endorsing Walker over Mark Neumann.  It was surprising given that at the time the primary was perhaps 55/45 or even 50/50.  So, clearing a 75% threshold means something.  Ron Johnson was also endorsed despite being an unknown and he only declared his candidacy the week before. 

So I think you are right that state conventions can play a role in states that have their acts together.  Candidate recruitment is most important.  I always like selling something that sells itself.           
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olawakandi
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« Reply #21 on: April 23, 2012, 01:55:49 pm »
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Most likely: NJ Corey Booker, OH Strickland, ME, RI and PA Sestak and WI Barrett.
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A-Bob
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« Reply #22 on: April 29, 2012, 06:05:51 pm »
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1. Connecticut (Malloy)
2. Illinois (Quinn)
3. New Hampshire (If the Dems win)
4. Oregon
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hopper
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« Reply #23 on: April 29, 2012, 07:39:45 pm »
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I think the GOP may pick up another seat or two, probably in the Northeast.

No.
Care to elaborate, or are you going to just continue sticking to short, one-word answers so frequently?

If Obama's in his second term and the economy is still down, I think Republicans could certainly get a couple pickups in an environment similar to 2010. New Hampshire for one, which could go as early as 2012. In the right circumstances, Republicans could be in a position like 2010 where they had a shot in every state up there.


All the New England seats have the potential to go R. Other than NH, CT and MA are the most likely to me; Malloy is really unpopular and Scott Brown could run for Governor if he loses this year.
Really, I thought on a couple polls on this site he was at 51% approval. I know he had a tough time early in his first several months as governor with raising taxes. He was mayor of Stamford, CT for like 15 years. 
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hopper
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« Reply #24 on: April 29, 2012, 07:49:35 pm »
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Republicans certainly don't have as much room for growth.

I'm guessing Arkansas has term-limits, so that'd be a nice pickup. I think the GOP may pick up another seat or two, probably in the Northeast.

Gubernatorial races are very hard to predict this far out, as the economy is a huge factor, as well as who the President is. Republicans could gain 4 or 5 more seats, or Democrats would win 12 or so.


If Republicans gained four or five more seats, the Democrats would be down to a record low 11 or 12 seats out of 50.  
Democrats may trend near that historic low.  A 10 to 15 state party will naturally have problems winning 25 governor-ships.  Although it is possible, but not likely.  Financial problems in traditionally blue states will continue to produce GOP governors as democrats refuse to confront math.          
The Senate should also trend this way, but it hasn't.  I'm guessing that because a Senator doesn't actually have to do anything, is why democrats fair better.    
Democrats also have a better history of nominating decent candidates. I hate saying this, but I sometimes wish we nominated Senate candidates at the state convention. We would have most likely won in Nevada, Colorado, and Delaware if so, putting us at 50 seats. That being the case, there would be no doubt the GOP would take the Senate in 2012.
No Buck was leading the whole time until the last 2 weeks before Election Day 2010. The Colorado liberal media hit him kinda hard too. He totally screwed up the question in "The Meet The Press" TV Debate with Bennet too. David Gregory asked him that question about people being gay and he was like its like achoholism. I put my hand on my head when Buck answered that question and was like are you kidding. I couldn't believe he answered that question like that. Buck got totally pissed when one of the moderators in another debate in Colorado with Bennet asked him a question about him being pro-life. You can't get mad in a debate like that in my opinion.
« Last Edit: April 29, 2012, 07:51:37 pm by hopper »Logged
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