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April 28, 2024, 10:46:14 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

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  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Gubernatorial/State Elections (Moderators: Brittain33, GeorgiaModerate, Gass3268, Virginiá, Gracile)
  Your 2014 Targets: (search mode)
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Author Topic: Your 2014 Targets:  (Read 4091 times)
tmthforu94
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 22,402
United States


Political Matrix
E: -0.26, S: -4.52

P P P
« on: April 18, 2012, 05:57:54 PM »

Republicans certainly don't have as much room for growth.

I'm guessing Arkansas has term-limits, so that'd be a nice pickup. I think the GOP may pick up another seat or two, probably in the Northeast.

Gubernatorial races are very hard to predict this far out, as the economy is a huge factor, as well as who the President is. Republicans could gain 4 or 5 more seats, or Democrats would win 12 or so.

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tmthforu94
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 22,402
United States


Political Matrix
E: -0.26, S: -4.52

P P P
« Reply #1 on: April 19, 2012, 11:36:17 AM »

I think the GOP may pick up another seat or two, probably in the Northeast.

No.
Care to elaborate, or are you going to just continue sticking to short, one-word answers so frequently?

If Obama's in his second term and the economy is still down, I think Republicans could certainly get a couple pickups in an environment similar to 2010. New Hampshire for one, which could go as early as 2012. In the right circumstances, Republicans could be in a position like 2010 where they had a shot in every state up there.
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tmthforu94
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 22,402
United States


Political Matrix
E: -0.26, S: -4.52

P P P
« Reply #2 on: April 23, 2012, 11:45:33 AM »

Republicans certainly don't have as much room for growth.

I'm guessing Arkansas has term-limits, so that'd be a nice pickup. I think the GOP may pick up another seat or two, probably in the Northeast.

Gubernatorial races are very hard to predict this far out, as the economy is a huge factor, as well as who the President is. Republicans could gain 4 or 5 more seats, or Democrats would win 12 or so.


If Republicans gained four or five more seats, the Democrats would be down to a record low 11 or 12 seats out of 50. 
Democrats may trend near that historic low.  A 10 to 15 state party will naturally have problems winning 25 governor-ships.  Although it is possible, but not likely.  Financial problems in traditionally blue states will continue to produce GOP governors as democrats refuse to confront math.         
The Senate should also trend this way, but it hasn't.  I'm guessing that because a Senator doesn't actually have to do anything, is why democrats fair better.     
Democrats also have a better history of nominating decent candidates. I hate saying this, but I sometimes wish we nominated Senate candidates at the state convention. We would have most likely won in Nevada, Colorado, and Delaware if so, putting us at 50 seats. That being the case, there would be no doubt the GOP would take the Senate in 2012.
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