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|-+  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
| |-+  Presidential Election Trends (Moderators: Mr. Morden, Bacon King)
| | |-+  What scenario is the unlikeliest?
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Question: What scenario is the unlikeliest in terms of a presidential election?
Vermont and Georgia vote for the same candidate.
Virginia and Indiana vote for different candidates.
Ohio and Missouri both vote for the losing candidate.
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Author Topic: What scenario is the unlikeliest?  (Read 700 times)
diarrhea
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« on: April 16, 2012, 11:35:04 am »
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tough
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Carlos Danger
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« Reply #1 on: April 16, 2012, 11:50:49 am »
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1, obviously.
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diarrhea
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« Reply #2 on: April 16, 2012, 12:06:09 pm »
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1, obviously.

But it happened quite often: 1840, 1848, 1972, 1984, 1988, 1992.

I'd say it's not likely to happen again in the near future, but it's not "obviously" unlikely, since Georgia has been trending blue.
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« Reply #3 on: April 16, 2012, 12:14:45 pm »
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In 2012? Option 1.
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lawlz
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« Reply #4 on: June 07, 2012, 06:04:25 pm »
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1, obviously.

But it happened quite often: 1840, 1848, 1972, 1984, 1988, 1992.

I'd say it's not likely to happen again in the near future, but it's not "obviously" unlikely, since Georgia has been trending blue.
Actually, Georgia has been trending red over the past few election cycles.
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« Reply #5 on: June 08, 2012, 05:11:14 pm »
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tough
No. Vermont will vote D and the chance of Georgia going to the Dems in this election is extremely small. Both the other scenarios are unlikely, but not nearly as unlikely as that one.
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« Reply #6 on: June 10, 2012, 12:43:17 am »
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1, obviously.

But it happened quite often: 1840, 1848, 1972, 1984, 1988, 1992.

I'd say it's not likely to happen again in the near future, but it's not "obviously" unlikely, since Georgia has been trending blue.

#2 happened in 1824, 1836, 1840, 1848, 1860, (VA not voting in 1864/8) 1880, 1888, 1896, 1900, 1904, 1908, 1916, 1920, 1924, 1940, 1994, 1948. It hasn't happened recently, but it nearly did in 2008 and could easily do so this year.

#3 only happened in 1824 and 1848, which makes sense because voting together AND for the loser are quite stringent conditions, especially as Missouri has historically had a bit of a Democratic lean and Ohio a bit of Republican one. Now that they both have Republican leans, it's quite plausible. Obama could win without Ohio this year, which would likely have him lose Missouri too, satisfying the condition.
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« Reply #7 on: June 10, 2012, 03:04:26 pm »
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It's an interesting question.

I'll go with #1.

Ohio and Missouri are both more right-leaning than the rest of the country, so it's possible for the states to support a Republican candidate who loses a general election.

Virginia is the ultimate swing state. In 2008, it was closer to the national average than any other state. And it's been leaning more Democratic lately. Hell, in a close election it's possible for Obama to win Virginia, and lose the electoral college. It's something the Romney campaign has to consider in their strategy.

The least likely event is a candidate winning Vermont and Georgia. But Georgia's still in play for a Democrat during a major landslide. And we've all been spoiled by close elections in 2000 and 2004, so it's easy to forget that landslides are the norm.
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