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Vosem
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« Reply #50 on: April 17, 2012, 08:30:58 pm »
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Read a bit more about Kelly Ayotte, she seems like she'd be a pretty good pick (although somebody who has been in the Senate for just 2 years clearly requires vetting). Some of her background (suing Planned Parenthood) would work very well with conservatives -- she's a woman, pushing back on the "War on Women" line -- she's from a swing state. It'd be kinda funny to see the Republicans nominate a Massachusetts/New Hampshire ticket. Some poster earlier in the thread said the South could be offended, but the South will vote Republican anyway and in any case I don't think regionalization is so strong in the US as this being a disqualifier.
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Carlos Danger
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« Reply #51 on: April 17, 2012, 08:35:14 pm »
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Ayotte is probably too strident a SoCon to be appealing.  It's not like conservatives won't vote for Mitt, so his running mate has to be someone with legitimate crossover appeal.
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« Reply #52 on: April 17, 2012, 08:37:34 pm »
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Rubio and Martinez apparently both came from working-class backgrounds.

And both of them are Shermanesque. (Martinez is the legal guardian of her developmentally disabled sister)

It won't be a 20-monther. Especially not an unknown woman, given that the word "Palin" will (unjustly) appear somewhere in the first paragraph of every media story.
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7.35, 3.65

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Iron King SJoyce
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« Reply #53 on: April 17, 2012, 08:40:54 pm »
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Why are all the pundits so convinced it'll be Rob Portman?  Isn't he unpopular in Ohio?

He's from Ohio (swing state), so Romney wants that. He was director of the Office of Management and Budget, which reinforces their economic as opposed to social message with the voters. And he's not a loose cannon and is unlikely to cause any issues.

Portman is the "SAFEST" choice in "do no harm" with a decent upside if he can bring in enough voters to win Ohio.  However, He's not a strong choice to guarantee Ohio because he's a new Senator and not as popular in Ohio as you need to win the state. 

The other VP possibilities all carry High Risk, with very little electoral upside.  The only risk for Portman is how much dirt the liberal media can tie him to with the Bush White House.  If they can tie him to some budget fiascos, then Portman is sunk as VP.

It is interesting thought that a lot of media pundits and liberals are talking up Portman, probably because he is such an obvious choice.  But another reason to talk him up in the media, is to see how he does with the Spotlight on him, and see what dirt bloggers can dig up.  He's still nationally unknown, and reporters are now seeing him as a valuable candidate for VP. 

If Portman survives the media spotlight for the next couple of months, without any past scandals, he will probably be the VP choice.  If the Portman possibility improves the Romney Poll Numbers in Ohio, then it will almost guarantee him the VP. 

I agree that the 2nd strongest choice on paper would be Jeb.  He's far more popular among republicans and indepedent catholics than portman, and he has no obvious scandals, besides his drug addict children. 

Portman isn't popular, but he's bland, and after Sarah, what they want is bland. As for Jeb Bush, the issue with him has been highlighted.

I think Bland White Guy is probably what Romney will go for -- it is after all the key demographic for the Republican Party, and no presidential candidate wants someone who will upstage him, seem more exciting than him, or highlight his weaknesses.

My free advice for Romney? Pick someone who grew up in a working-class family.

Which means Portman or Ryan.

Looked them up on Wikipedia (I know...). Ryan's family's construction business has been around for four generations. Portman's father was a successful entrepreneur, successful enough to send his son to a private day school, and then to Dartmouth. Neither is really that working-class.

Pawlenty was the son of a milk truck driver and was the only one of his siblings to attend college. Is that working-class enough?
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« Reply #54 on: April 17, 2012, 08:43:31 pm »
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Grey-collar should be sufficient, and at any rate the narrative is more important. (Obama doesn't qualify under the purist blue-collar label either. Nor was/is it relevant.) Both of them have the narrative.
Not sure what narrative you had in mind, but I was thinking that someone who'd actually had to work his way up would be a more credible spokesperson for Romney's economic policies. Someone who can say "I've lived the American dream -- I started with nothing, and through hard work and skill I've made it." Romney can't really claim that, and neither, it seems can Portman or Ryan.
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« Reply #55 on: April 17, 2012, 08:44:18 pm »
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Ayotte is probably too strident a SoCon to be appealing.  It's not like conservatives won't vote for Mitt, so his running mate has to be someone with legitimate crossover appeal.

She did get 60% in her first run for Senate.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #56 on: April 17, 2012, 09:59:19 pm »
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Barone makes some good points about suburbia.

http://campaign2012.washingtonexaminer.com/article/win-burbs-mitt-may-pick-double-vanilla-veep/485831
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7.35, 3.65

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« Reply #57 on: April 17, 2012, 10:20:30 pm »
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Larry Craig(R-ID)
A Monty Burns/Waylon Smithers Ticket.
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« Reply #58 on: April 17, 2012, 10:24:19 pm »
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Again, I endorse Kelly Ayotte.
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AmericanNation
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« Reply #59 on: April 18, 2012, 12:27:04 pm »
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Ryan doesn't have any negatives because the democrats haven't passed (or seriously proposed) a budget in three years... They can't criticize a serious budget without drawing attention to the fact that they aren't serious.  That is a major bonus not a negative.  The democrats will not be able to resist creating their own death spiral.  If he isn't the VP Romney risks not being able to defend the slander on Ryan.        

You want to stop the lying?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2010_United_States_federal_budget

Typically when you accuse someone of lying you state something contrary to what they said...  I can't even respond because you have failed to do so.  I'm guessing that you think A budget passed in 2009 (3 years ago) is relevant to something, but I'm not sure what as that confirms what I said.

Here is an outline of everything:
 http://budget.house.gov/News/DocumentSingle.aspx?DocumentID=252305



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AmericanNation
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« Reply #60 on: April 18, 2012, 01:02:31 pm »
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It has been 1,085 days since the Senate passed a budget, which is 2.97 years.  Want to apologize?
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AmericanNation
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« Reply #61 on: April 18, 2012, 01:22:59 pm »
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Portman, Ryan, and everyone else.   
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« Reply #62 on: April 18, 2012, 01:32:29 pm »
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The 2012 and 2013 Budget proposals were serious proposals. The 2013 budget proposal has a projected deficit $500 BILLION less than 2012. Just because they originated with the opposition party doesn't render them as a joke. I suggest you get a new prescription for your glasses, with 90% less hackery.

Democrats can't pass their pure budget because they are a minority in the house and the rules of filibuster in the Senate mean they can't pass it there either (despite holding a majority). The house has more lax rules, enabling Republicans to "pass" their pure budgets (which are swiftly defeated in the Senate/Oval Office). Of course, neither Democrats nor Republicans have passed a budget that is 100% pure to their party in the past 18 months, because surprise! We have a divided government.

Again, you are lying if you think Democrat proposals "aren't serious." As I would be if I said the Republican (Ryan) plan wasn't serious either.
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« Reply #63 on: April 18, 2012, 01:34:33 pm »
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This has what, exactly, do to with the Veepstakes? :puzzled:

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7.35, 3.65

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« Reply #64 on: April 18, 2012, 01:36:24 pm »
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This has what, exactly, do to with the Veepstakes? :puzzled:



It was a response to AmericaNation's fallacious statements earlier in the thread.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #65 on: April 18, 2012, 01:41:25 pm »
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Whatev. My bracketology remains remains unchanged: the final 4, alphabetically, are Jindal/McDonnell/Portman/Ryan.
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7.35, 3.65

« Les plus nobles principes du monde ne valent que par l’action.  »

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Is it excessive to hold a politician's feet to the fire for giving his base the run around at every turn?
Chris B
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« Reply #66 on: April 18, 2012, 03:20:03 pm »
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My money is on Portman or Thune.
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Iron King SJoyce
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« Reply #67 on: April 18, 2012, 03:51:43 pm »
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My money is on Portman or Thune.

Mine's on Daniels or Pawlenty.
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« Reply #68 on: April 18, 2012, 06:46:32 pm »
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My money is on Portman or Thune.

I agree.
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« Reply #69 on: April 18, 2012, 08:09:39 pm »
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CNN GOP VP Poll(Republicans only)....

Rice 26%
Santorum 21%
Christie 14%
Rubio 14%
Ryan 8%
Jindal 5%
McDonnell 1%
Portman *
Someone else (vol.) 4%
None/no one (vol.) 2%
No opinion 4%


http ://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2012/images/04/18/rel4g. pdf
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milhouse24
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« Reply #70 on: April 18, 2012, 11:02:35 pm »
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Why are all the pundits so convinced it'll be Rob Portman?  Isn't he unpopular in Ohio?

He's from Ohio (swing state), so Romney wants that. He was director of the Office of Management and Budget, which reinforces their economic as opposed to social message with the voters. And he's not a loose cannon and is unlikely to cause any issues.

Portman is the "SAFEST" choice in "do no harm" with a decent upside if he can bring in enough voters to win Ohio.  However, He's not a strong choice to guarantee Ohio because he's a new Senator and not as popular in Ohio as you need to win the state. 

The other VP possibilities all carry High Risk, with very little electoral upside.  The only risk for Portman is how much dirt the liberal media can tie him to with the Bush White House.  If they can tie him to some budget fiascos, then Portman is sunk as VP.

It is interesting thought that a lot of media pundits and liberals are talking up Portman, probably because he is such an obvious choice.  But another reason to talk him up in the media, is to see how he does with the Spotlight on him, and see what dirt bloggers can dig up.  He's still nationally unknown, and reporters are now seeing him as a valuable candidate for VP. 

If Portman survives the media spotlight for the next couple of months, without any past scandals, he will probably be the VP choice.  If the Portman possibility improves the Romney Poll Numbers in Ohio, then it will almost guarantee him the VP. 

I agree that the 2nd strongest choice on paper would be Jeb.  He's far more popular among republicans and indepedent catholics than portman, and he has no obvious scandals, besides his drug addict children. 

Portman isn't popular, but he's bland, and after Sarah, what they want is bland. As for Jeb Bush, the issue with him has been highlighted.

I don't really see an issue with Jeb Bush on the ticket.  A lot of people love Jeb Bush in Florida. 

But at least with Jeb Bush on the ticket, you know how the election will play out.

Liberals and Democrats hate Dubya Bush, Cheney, Condi Rice, GHW Bush, the entire Bush Family, and even Sophia Bush.

The media hates Dubya Bush, the entire Bush family, and Jeb Bush for no reason other than his last name is Bush, and that he love middle east oil and wars just like his brother. 

Unaffiliated Indepedent voters:  Some indepdents are dumb and don't care about politics so they probably think Jeb Bush is the same person as Dubya Bush.  But if they don't care about politics, then they probably don't "hate" the Bush family. 

Other independents are smarter and cynical of both Dems and Repubs.  But these "smart independents" know that Jeb is a governor from Florida and fairly competent and socially moderate.  These indepdents may also hate the Bush family, but they might not hate Jeb Bush as much. 

These independents may also be white Catholics, and Jeb Bush is a socially moderate white Catholic as well.  While, Dubya Bush was a born again Christian who pandered to christian conservatives, Jeb is a Catholic who will pander to moderate white Catholics. 

Then you have Republicans of all ages, shapes, and sizes who love the Bush family and Jeb Bush. 

So, basically the media and Obama campaign will purposed confuse voters into believing Jeb is the same person as Dubya and that the Bush family is pure evil. 

But Republicans and moderate Catholics will determine that Jeb Bush is a different human being than Dubya. 

The polling will show Obama/Biden losing to Romney/Bush and that the "Bush" name recognition will actually "IMPROVE" voter turnout for Romney in Ohio and Florida. 

While the "Bush" name will have little to no effect on "Bush haters" turning out for Obama. 

In conclusion, the Bush name will actually help increase voter turnout for Romney, rather than hurt him or drive voters away to Obama.  The Bush name recognition is far stronger than any of the other weaker VP options like Portman, Thune, or Rubio. 

This is politics, and in politics "Name Recognition" will win every time.
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milhouse24
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« Reply #71 on: April 18, 2012, 11:09:29 pm »
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My money is on Portman or Thune.

Mine's on Daniels or Pawlenty.

Daniels will never do it because his wife will literally be destroyed and ruined by the liberal media covering her first divorce. 

If you weren't sickened, shocked, amused, satisfied by the media's Sarah Palin family massacre, then you will be prepared for the politics of personal destruction that will befall on Mitch Daniel's family. 

I don't know how many sick Feminists love to see Sarah Palin personally ruined, but it shows how much worse women have it in politics and the political media.  Maybe its just all about abortion, but it proves how awful it is to be a woman in politics. 
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« Reply #72 on: April 18, 2012, 11:10:32 pm »
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Why are all the pundits so convinced it'll be Rob Portman?  Isn't he unpopular in Ohio?

He's from Ohio (swing state), so Romney wants that. He was director of the Office of Management and Budget, which reinforces their economic as opposed to social message with the voters. And he's not a loose cannon and is unlikely to cause any issues.

Portman is the "SAFEST" choice in "do no harm" with a decent upside if he can bring in enough voters to win Ohio.  However, He's not a strong choice to guarantee Ohio because he's a new Senator and not as popular in Ohio as you need to win the state. 

The other VP possibilities all carry High Risk, with very little electoral upside.  The only risk for Portman is how much dirt the liberal media can tie him to with the Bush White House.  If they can tie him to some budget fiascos, then Portman is sunk as VP.

It is interesting thought that a lot of media pundits and liberals are talking up Portman, probably because he is such an obvious choice.  But another reason to talk him up in the media, is to see how he does with the Spotlight on him, and see what dirt bloggers can dig up.  He's still nationally unknown, and reporters are now seeing him as a valuable candidate for VP. 

If Portman survives the media spotlight for the next couple of months, without any past scandals, he will probably be the VP choice.  If the Portman possibility improves the Romney Poll Numbers in Ohio, then it will almost guarantee him the VP. 

I agree that the 2nd strongest choice on paper would be Jeb.  He's far more popular among republicans and indepedent catholics than portman, and he has no obvious scandals, besides his drug addict children. 

Portman isn't popular, but he's bland, and after Sarah, what they want is bland. As for Jeb Bush, the issue with him has been highlighted.

I don't really see an issue with Jeb Bush on the ticket.  A lot of people love Jeb Bush in Florida. 

But at least with Jeb Bush on the ticket, you know how the election will play out.

Liberals and Democrats hate Dubya Bush, Cheney, Condi Rice, GHW Bush, the entire Bush Family, and even Sophia Bush.

The media hates Dubya Bush, the entire Bush family, and Jeb Bush for no reason other than his last name is Bush, and that he love middle east oil and wars just like his brother. 

Unaffiliated Indepedent voters:  Some indepdents are dumb and don't care about politics so they probably think Jeb Bush is the same person as Dubya Bush.  But if they don't care about politics, then they probably don't "hate" the Bush family. 

Other independents are smarter and cynical of both Dems and Repubs.  But these "smart independents" know that Jeb is a governor from Florida and fairly competent and socially moderate.  These indepdents may also hate the Bush family, but they might not hate Jeb Bush as much. 

These independents may also be white Catholics, and Jeb Bush is a socially moderate white Catholic as well.  While, Dubya Bush was a born again Christian who pandered to christian conservatives, Jeb is a Catholic who will pander to moderate white Catholics. 

Then you have Republicans of all ages, shapes, and sizes who love the Bush family and Jeb Bush. 

So, basically the media and Obama campaign will purposed confuse voters into believing Jeb is the same person as Dubya and that the Bush family is pure evil. 

But Republicans and moderate Catholics will determine that Jeb Bush is a different human being than Dubya. 

The polling will show Obama/Biden losing to Romney/Bush and that the "Bush" name recognition will actually "IMPROVE" voter turnout for Romney in Ohio and Florida. 

While the "Bush" name will have little to no effect on "Bush haters" turning out for Obama. 

In conclusion, the Bush name will actually help increase voter turnout for Romney, rather than hurt him or drive voters away to Obama.  The Bush name recognition is far stronger than any of the other weaker VP options like Portman, Thune, or Rubio. 

This is politics, and in politics "Name Recognition" will win every time.

Name Recognition wins every time? There are some good counterexamples to that. The 1972 Delaware Senate race is one.
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Iron King SJoyce
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« Reply #73 on: April 19, 2012, 07:27:16 am »
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Why are all the pundits so convinced it'll be Rob Portman?  Isn't he unpopular in Ohio?

He's from Ohio (swing state), so Romney wants that. He was director of the Office of Management and Budget, which reinforces their economic as opposed to social message with the voters. And he's not a loose cannon and is unlikely to cause any issues.

Portman is the "SAFEST" choice in "do no harm" with a decent upside if he can bring in enough voters to win Ohio.  However, He's not a strong choice to guarantee Ohio because he's a new Senator and not as popular in Ohio as you need to win the state. 

The other VP possibilities all carry High Risk, with very little electoral upside.  The only risk for Portman is how much dirt the liberal media can tie him to with the Bush White House.  If they can tie him to some budget fiascos, then Portman is sunk as VP.

It is interesting thought that a lot of media pundits and liberals are talking up Portman, probably because he is such an obvious choice.  But another reason to talk him up in the media, is to see how he does with the Spotlight on him, and see what dirt bloggers can dig up.  He's still nationally unknown, and reporters are now seeing him as a valuable candidate for VP. 

If Portman survives the media spotlight for the next couple of months, without any past scandals, he will probably be the VP choice.  If the Portman possibility improves the Romney Poll Numbers in Ohio, then it will almost guarantee him the VP. 

I agree that the 2nd strongest choice on paper would be Jeb.  He's far more popular among republicans and indepedent catholics than portman, and he has no obvious scandals, besides his drug addict children. 

Portman isn't popular, but he's bland, and after Sarah, what they want is bland. As for Jeb Bush, the issue with him has been highlighted.

I don't really see an issue with Jeb Bush on the ticket.  A lot of people love Jeb Bush in Florida. 

But at least with Jeb Bush on the ticket, you know how the election will play out.

Liberals and Democrats hate Dubya Bush, Cheney, Condi Rice, GHW Bush, the entire Bush Family, and even Sophia Bush.

The media hates Dubya Bush, the entire Bush family, and Jeb Bush for no reason other than his last name is Bush, and that he love middle east oil and wars just like his brother. 

Unaffiliated Indepedent voters:  Some indepdents are dumb and don't care about politics so they probably think Jeb Bush is the same person as Dubya Bush.  But if they don't care about politics, then they probably don't "hate" the Bush family. 

Other independents are smarter and cynical of both Dems and Repubs.  But these "smart independents" know that Jeb is a governor from Florida and fairly competent and socially moderate.  These indepdents may also hate the Bush family, but they might not hate Jeb Bush as much. 

These independents may also be white Catholics, and Jeb Bush is a socially moderate white Catholic as well.  While, Dubya Bush was a born again Christian who pandered to christian conservatives, Jeb is a Catholic who will pander to moderate white Catholics. 

Then you have Republicans of all ages, shapes, and sizes who love the Bush family and Jeb Bush. 

So, basically the media and Obama campaign will purposed confuse voters into believing Jeb is the same person as Dubya and that the Bush family is pure evil. 

But Republicans and moderate Catholics will determine that Jeb Bush is a different human being than Dubya. 

The polling will show Obama/Biden losing to Romney/Bush and that the "Bush" name recognition will actually "IMPROVE" voter turnout for Romney in Ohio and Florida. 

While the "Bush" name will have little to no effect on "Bush haters" turning out for Obama. 

In conclusion, the Bush name will actually help increase voter turnout for Romney, rather than hurt him or drive voters away to Obama.  The Bush name recognition is far stronger than any of the other weaker VP options like Portman, Thune, or Rubio. 

This is politics, and in politics "Name Recognition" will win every time.

IF Jeb Bush is fairly competent and a social moderate, does that anger the Republican base? Isn't the conventional wisdom that he needs to pick a social conservative to appease the masses? And as to their being the same: Jeb Bush was a member of a significant neocon think tank (Project for a New American Century), which promoted the continuation, maintenance, and expansion of an empire throughout the world. Don't think too many voters will go for that.
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« Reply #74 on: April 19, 2012, 12:54:53 pm »
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Why are all the pundits so convinced it'll be Rob Portman?  Isn't he unpopular in Ohio?

He's from Ohio (swing state), so Romney wants that. He was director of the Office of Management and Budget, which reinforces their economic as opposed to social message with the voters. And he's not a loose cannon and is unlikely to cause any issues.

Portman is the "SAFEST" choice in "do no harm" with a decent upside if he can bring in enough voters to win Ohio.  However, He's not a strong choice to guarantee Ohio because he's a new Senator and not as popular in Ohio as you need to win the state. 

The other VP possibilities all carry High Risk, with very little electoral upside.  The only risk for Portman is how much dirt the liberal media can tie him to with the Bush White House.  If they can tie him to some budget fiascos, then Portman is sunk as VP.

It is interesting thought that a lot of media pundits and liberals are talking up Portman, probably because he is such an obvious choice.  But another reason to talk him up in the media, is to see how he does with the Spotlight on him, and see what dirt bloggers can dig up.  He's still nationally unknown, and reporters are now seeing him as a valuable candidate for VP. 

If Portman survives the media spotlight for the next couple of months, without any past scandals, he will probably be the VP choice.  If the Portman possibility improves the Romney Poll Numbers in Ohio, then it will almost guarantee him the VP. 

I agree that the 2nd strongest choice on paper would be Jeb.  He's far more popular among republicans and indepedent catholics than portman, and he has no obvious scandals, besides his drug addict children. 

Portman isn't popular, but he's bland, and after Sarah, what they want is bland. As for Jeb Bush, the issue with him has been highlighted.

I don't really see an issue with Jeb Bush on the ticket.  A lot of people love Jeb Bush in Florida. 

But at least with Jeb Bush on the ticket, you know how the election will play out.

Liberals and Democrats hate Dubya Bush, Cheney, Condi Rice, GHW Bush, the entire Bush Family, and even Sophia Bush.

The media hates Dubya Bush, the entire Bush family, and Jeb Bush for no reason other than his last name is Bush, and that he love middle east oil and wars just like his brother. 

Unaffiliated Indepedent voters:  Some indepdents are dumb and don't care about politics so they probably think Jeb Bush is the same person as Dubya Bush.  But if they don't care about politics, then they probably don't "hate" the Bush family. 

Other independents are smarter and cynical of both Dems and Repubs.  But these "smart independents" know that Jeb is a governor from Florida and fairly competent and socially moderate.  These indepdents may also hate the Bush family, but they might not hate Jeb Bush as much. 

These independents may also be white Catholics, and Jeb Bush is a socially moderate white Catholic as well.  While, Dubya Bush was a born again Christian who pandered to christian conservatives, Jeb is a Catholic who will pander to moderate white Catholics. 

Then you have Republicans of all ages, shapes, and sizes who love the Bush family and Jeb Bush. 

So, basically the media and Obama campaign will purposed confuse voters into believing Jeb is the same person as Dubya and that the Bush family is pure evil. 

But Republicans and moderate Catholics will determine that Jeb Bush is a different human being than Dubya. 

The polling will show Obama/Biden losing to Romney/Bush and that the "Bush" name recognition will actually "IMPROVE" voter turnout for Romney in Ohio and Florida. 

While the "Bush" name will have little to no effect on "Bush haters" turning out for Obama. 

In conclusion, the Bush name will actually help increase voter turnout for Romney, rather than hurt him or drive voters away to Obama.  The Bush name recognition is far stronger than any of the other weaker VP options like Portman, Thune, or Rubio. 

This is politics, and in politics "Name Recognition" will win every time.

Name Recognition wins every time? There are some good counterexamples to that. The 1972 Delaware Senate race is one.

Barring scandal association, name recognition is very helpful. 
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