CNN: Romney close to 60%, as almost all Santorum-voters go for Romney

[Tender Branson]

BASED ON 473 REPUBLICANS -- SAMPLING ERROR: +/- 4.5 PERCENTAGE PTS.

57% Romney (+21)
19% Gingrich (+4)
18% Paul (+1)
  3% Someone else (+2)
  3% None of them (+1)

http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2012/images/04/16/rel4a.pdf

[IDS Speaker Ben Kenobi]

Interesting. My model had 20/30/30 with 20 undecided.

Looks like all the undecided went Romney, along with the 30 that I had going to Paul.

70/30 Romney split. Basically Newt is back up to his former support as of a month ago, but nobody else. Seems like the late Romney breakers from Newt have gone back to Newt, and all of the Santorum supporters have gone to Romney/Paul rather than support Newt.

This is a disaster for Newt.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Well, there you have it folks. The Republican party decided to go with a Massachusetts flip flopper who wants to repeal the national version of his signature law.

[All life is a blur of Republicans and meat.]

This is a disaster for Newt.

You say that like he's still running a real campaign.

[IDS Speaker Ben Kenobi]

I'm still arguing with Newtbots on Freerepublic who believe that he's still viable.

This is devastating evidence to the contrary.

I have him down 10 in TX based on this model  43-33 and that's the best performance of Newt.

Does anyone want to check my numbers? I'm pretty sure that a 57-19 split even given Newt's southern boost would give Mitt + 10 in TX.

[Tender Branson]

Don't think Newt & Paul will stay in much longer after the primaries in 1 week.

If they do, Romney still wins every state - probably even AR, KY and WV.

[IDS Speaker Ben Kenobi]

Well I think Newt does better in TX than in WV, AR and KY.

Does Romney +10 in TX seem reasonable? You folks know more than me.

[Tender Branson]

Well I think Newt does better in TX than in WV, AR and KY.

Does Romney +10 in TX seem reasonable? You folks know more than me.

More like Romney by 20 in TX.

50% Romney
25% Newt
15% Paul
10% Undecided

Romney ends up winning with about 55% of the vote.

[IDS Speaker Ben Kenobi]

Ok, so I'm erring on the side of Newt.

Thanks. Appreciate it. Glad to know I'm not completely out to lunch.

[Senator Napoleon]

This is a disaster for Newt.

You say that like he's still running a real campaign.

You say that like he was ever running a "real campaign."

[All life is a blur of Republicans and meat.]

This is a disaster for Newt.

You say that like he's still running a real campaign.

You say that like he was ever running a "real campaign."

Touche.

[IDS Speaker Ben Kenobi]

I'm still arguing with Newtbots on Freerepublic who believe that he's still viable.

This is devastating evidence to the contrary.

I have him down 10 in TX based on this model  43-33 and that's the best performance of Newt.

Does anyone want to check my numbers? I'm pretty sure that a 57-19 split even given Newt's southern boost would give Mitt + 10 in TX.

Not too shabby!