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| | | |-+  CNN: Romney close to 60%, as almost all Santorum-voters go for Romney
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Author Topic: CNN: Romney close to 60%, as almost all Santorum-voters go for Romney  (Read 1104 times)
Tender Branson
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« on: April 17, 2012, 12:49:10 am »

BASED ON 473 REPUBLICANS -- SAMPLING ERROR: +/- 4.5 PERCENTAGE PTS.

57% Romney (+21)
19% Gingrich (+4)
18% Paul (+1)
  3% Someone else (+2)
  3% None of them (+1)

http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2012/images/04/16/rel4a.pdf
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IDS Ex-Speaker Ben Kenobi
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« Reply #1 on: April 17, 2012, 01:15:14 am »
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Interesting. My model had 20/30/30 with 20 undecided.

Looks like all the undecided went Romney, along with the 30 that I had going to Paul.

70/30 Romney split. Basically Newt is back up to his former support as of a month ago, but nobody else. Seems like the late Romney breakers from Newt have gone back to Newt, and all of the Santorum supporters have gone to Romney/Paul rather than support Newt.

This is a disaster for Newt.
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"By not voting, you would let someone win who wants to destroy the regions, raise taxes, remove guns from the street, nationalize transit, expand abortion coverage, a gut the military." - Hagrid
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« Reply #2 on: April 17, 2012, 01:17:44 am »
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Well, there you have it folks. The Republican party decided to go with a Massachusetts flip flopper who wants to repeal the national version of his signature law.
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« Reply #3 on: April 17, 2012, 01:21:01 am »
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This is a disaster for Newt.

You say that like he's still running a real campaign.
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IDS Ex-Speaker Ben Kenobi
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« Reply #4 on: April 17, 2012, 01:22:59 am »
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I'm still arguing with Newtbots on Freerepublic who believe that he's still viable.

This is devastating evidence to the contrary.

I have him down 10 in TX based on this model  43-33 and that's the best performance of Newt.

Does anyone want to check my numbers? I'm pretty sure that a 57-19 split even given Newt's southern boost would give Mitt + 10 in TX.
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"By not voting, you would let someone win who wants to destroy the regions, raise taxes, remove guns from the street, nationalize transit, expand abortion coverage, a gut the military." - Hagrid
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #5 on: April 17, 2012, 01:26:36 am »

Don't think Newt & Paul will stay in much longer after the primaries in 1 week.

If they do, Romney still wins every state - probably even AR, KY and WV.
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IDS Ex-Speaker Ben Kenobi
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« Reply #6 on: April 17, 2012, 01:28:38 am »
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Well I think Newt does better in TX than in WV, AR and KY.

Does Romney +10 in TX seem reasonable? You folks know more than me.
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"By not voting, you would let someone win who wants to destroy the regions, raise taxes, remove guns from the street, nationalize transit, expand abortion coverage, a gut the military." - Hagrid
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #7 on: April 17, 2012, 01:30:28 am »

Well I think Newt does better in TX than in WV, AR and KY.

Does Romney +10 in TX seem reasonable? You folks know more than me.

More like Romney by 20 in TX.

50% Romney
25% Newt
15% Paul
10% Undecided

Romney ends up winning with about 55% of the vote.
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IDS Ex-Speaker Ben Kenobi
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« Reply #8 on: April 17, 2012, 01:32:15 am »
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Ok, so I'm erring on the side of Newt.

Thanks. Appreciate it. Glad to know I'm not completely out to lunch.
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"By not voting, you would let someone win who wants to destroy the regions, raise taxes, remove guns from the street, nationalize transit, expand abortion coverage, a gut the military." - Hagrid
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« Reply #9 on: April 17, 2012, 01:39:42 am »
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This is a disaster for Newt.

You say that like he's still running a real campaign.

You say that like he was ever running a "real campaign."
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When I was in the third grade, I thought that I was Jewish
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I told my mom, tears blurring my vision
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« Reply #10 on: April 17, 2012, 07:00:50 pm »
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This is a disaster for Newt.

You say that like he's still running a real campaign.

You say that like he was ever running a "real campaign."

Touche.
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IDS Ex-Speaker Ben Kenobi
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« Reply #11 on: April 24, 2012, 09:34:36 pm »
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I'm still arguing with Newtbots on Freerepublic who believe that he's still viable.

This is devastating evidence to the contrary.

I have him down 10 in TX based on this model  43-33 and that's the best performance of Newt.

Does anyone want to check my numbers? I'm pretty sure that a 57-19 split even given Newt's southern boost would give Mitt + 10 in TX.

Not too shabby!
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"By not voting, you would let someone win who wants to destroy the regions, raise taxes, remove guns from the street, nationalize transit, expand abortion coverage, a gut the military." - Hagrid
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