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| | |-+  Predict the percentages in the general for the following states
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Author Topic: Predict the percentages in the general for the following states  (Read 881 times)
They call me PR
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« on: April 17, 2012, 11:26:18 pm »
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Yeah, I know we still have several months til November, but this is the Atlas Forum, where people are making predictions about 2016 and 2020 already. So whatever.

Predict the following states in the 2012 general election:

Ohio
Missouri
North Carolina
Colorado
Indiana
Virginia
Florida

Ohio: Obama 51%, Romney 48%,

Missouri: Romney 50%, Obama 49%

North Carolina: Obama 52%, Romney 48%

Colorado: Obama 52%, Romney 47%

Indiana: Romney 52%, Obama 48%

Virginia: Obama 50%, Romney 49%

Florida: Romney 51%, Obama 48%


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Lowly Griff
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« Reply #1 on: April 18, 2012, 12:39:05 am »
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Ohio: Obama 51%, Romney 48%

Missouri: Romney 50%, Obama 49%

North Carolina: Obama 50%, Romney 49%

Colorado: Obama 54%, Romney 45%

Indiana: Romney 53%, Obama 46%

Virginia: Obama 53%, Romney 46%

Florida: Romney 50%, Obama 49%
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HockeyDude
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« Reply #2 on: April 18, 2012, 01:08:10 am »
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Ohio: Obama 52%, Romney 47%,

Missouri: Romney 50%, Obama 49%

North Carolina: Obama 51%, Romney 48%

Colorado: Obama 53%, Romney 45%

Indiana: Romney 53%, Obama 46%

Virginia: Obama 53%, Romney 46%

Florida: Obama 50%, Romney 49%
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First up is OU vs. Texas at 1100, followed by TCU vs. Baylor at 1430, then two games on ESPN2 at 1800 and 2130.  I'm not sure i'll make it all the way through the last game.

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IDS Ex-Speaker Ben Kenobi
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« Reply #3 on: April 18, 2012, 01:36:07 am »
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Ohio: Obama 54%, Romney 46%,

Missouri: Obama 52%, Romney 48%

North Carolina: Obama 52%, Romney 48%

Colorado: Obama 58%, Romney 42%

Indiana: Obama 52%, Romney 48%

Virginia: Obama 54%, Romney 46%

Florida: Obama 52 %, Romney 48%
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nkpatel1279
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« Reply #4 on: April 18, 2012, 07:51:51 am »
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If 2012 resembles 2008
Ohio- Obama 52%  Romney 47%
Missouri- Obama 49% Romney 50%
North Carolina- Obama 50% Romney 49%
Colorado- Obama 54% Romney 45%
Indiana- Obama 48% Romney 51%
Virginia- Obama 53% Romney 46%
Florida- Obama 51% Romney 48%
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NHI
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« Reply #5 on: April 18, 2012, 08:11:23 am »
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Ohio: Romney: 50% - Obama: 48%
Missouri: Romney: 51% - Obama: 47%
North Carolina: Romney: 49% - Obama: 49%
Colorado: Obama: 53% - Romney: 46%
Indiana: Romney: 52% - Obama: 46%
Virginia: Romney: 51% - Obama: 47%
Florida: Romney: 50% - Obama: 48%
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EmersonAdams
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« Reply #6 on: April 18, 2012, 08:28:19 am »
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Ohio: Obama 53%, Romney 46%,

Missouri: Romney 54%, Obama 45%

North Carolina: Obama 50%, Romney 49%

Colorado: Obama 57%, Romney 43%

Indiana: Romney 53%, Obama 46%

Virginia: Obama 55%, Romney 44%

Florida: Obama 51 %, Romney 48%
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BlueSwan
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« Reply #7 on: April 18, 2012, 09:16:23 am »
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I won't post percentages, but I think they will end up like this, in order of most favorable for Obama:

1. Colorado
2. Virginia
3. Ohio
4. Florida
5. North Carolina
6. Indiana
7. Missouri


Basically, I think Colorado goes for Obama, Missouri and Indiana goes for Romney and the rest are tossups with Virginia and Ohio leaning Obama and North Carolina and Florida leaning Romney.
« Last Edit: April 18, 2012, 09:18:48 am by BlueSwan »Logged
Kevin
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« Reply #8 on: April 18, 2012, 11:04:22 am »
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As of now I would say the following states would look like this.

Ohio: Obama 51%, Romney 49%,

Missouri: Romney 54%, Obama 44%

North Carolina: Obama 44%, Romney 53/54%

Colorado: Obama 53%, Romney 47%

Indiana: Romney 57%, Obama 43%

Virginia: Obama 47%, Romney 51%

Florida: Obama 48 %, Romney 51%
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« Reply #9 on: April 18, 2012, 12:01:00 pm »
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Ohio: Romney 49%, Obama 48%

Missouri: Romney 51%, Obama 47%

North Carolina: Romney 50%, Obama 48%

Colorado: Obama 51%, Romney 47%

Indiana: Romney 52%, Obama 44%

Virginia: Romney 50%, Obama 47% (Under assumption McDonnell is the VP pick)

Florida: Romney 50%, Obama 48%
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Miles
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« Reply #10 on: April 18, 2012, 12:17:51 pm »
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Ohio-> 51/48 O
Missouri-> 52/48 R
North Carolina-> 50/49 O
Colorado-> 53/45 O
Indiana-> 53/46 R
Virginia-> 52/46 O
Florida-> 50/50 R

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5280
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« Reply #11 on: April 18, 2012, 02:15:06 pm »
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Romney needs to try harder to break 50% in all of the following states.
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Paul/Cruz 2016!
ShadowOfTheWave
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« Reply #12 on: April 18, 2012, 02:34:35 pm »
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What is up with people thinking Romney would win MO by or close to double digits? Bush didn't even manage that.
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« Reply #13 on: April 18, 2012, 03:03:19 pm »
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Ohio  51-49% Obama
Missouri   52-48% Romney
North Carolina    53-46% Romney
Colorado  51-49% Obama
Indiana 55-45% Romney
Virginia  52-48% Romney
Florida   52-48% Romney

Think it will come down to CO, NV and OH eventually with NH being the tiebreaker


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ōcēlōxōchitl
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« Reply #14 on: April 18, 2012, 03:06:33 pm »
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Ohio 52-47% Obama
Missouri 50-50% Obama
North Carolina 51-49% Obama
Colorado 55-44% Obama
Indiana 50-49% Obama
Virginia 53-47% Obama
Florida 52-48% Obama
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Snowstalker
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« Reply #15 on: April 18, 2012, 03:22:53 pm »
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Ohio: Obama 53%, Romney 46%,

Missouri: Obama 50%, Romney 48%

North Carolina: Obama 52%, Romney 47%

Colorado: Obama 54%, Romney 44%

Indiana: Romney 49%, Obama 49%

Virginia: Obama 53%, Romney 46%

Florida: Obama 52%, Romney 47%
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Lowly Griff
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« Reply #16 on: April 18, 2012, 04:09:16 pm »
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Prediction averages up until this point:

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vern1988
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« Reply #17 on: April 19, 2012, 12:08:10 pm »
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Ohio: Obama 49%, Romney 50%,

Missouri: Obama 45%, Romney 52%

North Carolina: Obama 51%, Romney 48%

Colorado: Obama 54%, Romney 44%

Indiana: Romney 53%, Obama 45%

Virginia: Obama 51%, Romney 47%

Florida: Obama 48%, Romney 50%
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Kevin
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« Reply #18 on: April 19, 2012, 07:42:39 pm »
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Ohio  51-49% Obama
Missouri   52-48% Romney
North Carolina    53-46% Romney
Colorado  51-49% Obama
Indiana 55-45% Romney
Virginia  52-48% Romney
Florida   52-48% Romney

Think it will come down to CO, NV and OH eventually with NH being the tiebreaker

That all looks about right for now IMO.



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Senator North Carolina Yankee
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« Reply #19 on: April 19, 2012, 08:59:46 pm »
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Romney Narrow Victory Scenario:

Indiana: Romney 55% Obama 44%
Missouri: Romney 54% Obama 45%
North Carolina: Romney 53% Obama 46%
Florida: Romney 52% Obama 47%
Virginia: Romney 51% Obama 48%
Ohio: Romney 51% Obama 48%
New Hampshire: Romney 50% Obama 48%
Nevada: Romney 49% Obama 48%
Colorado: Romney 49 Obama 49% (We may find out the winner by December. Tongue)

Last two are unlikely but also unnecessary for a Romney win to occur.
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Devils30
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« Reply #20 on: April 20, 2012, 01:59:09 pm »
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Ohio:Obama 50-49
Missouri: Romney 52-47
North Carolina: Obama 49.5-49.4
Colorado: Obama 54-45
Indiana: Romney 53-45
Virginia: Obama 52-47
Florida: Obama 51-49

Lets add
Nevada: Obama 54-45
Pennsylvania: Obama 52-46
New Hampshire:Obama 51-48
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #21 on: April 20, 2012, 02:20:20 pm »
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Predict the following states in the 2012 general election:

Ohio
Missouri
North Carolina
Colorado
Indiana
Virginia
Florida

Ohio: Obama 53%, Romney 46%,

Missouri: Romney 50%, Obama 49%

North Carolina: Obama 52%, Romney 48%

Colorado: Obama 55%, Romney 43%

Indiana: Romney 49%, Obama 49%

Virginia: Obama 52%, Romney 46%

Florida: Romney 51%, Obama 48%

Bonus:

Arizona: Romney 49%, Obama 49%



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Your political compass

Economic Left/Right: -7.00
Social Libertarian/Authoritarian: -5.49
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