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Author Topic: Provincial by-elections in BC tomorrow!  (Read 1749 times)
Hatman
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« on: April 18, 2012, 02:19:13 pm »
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There will by by-elections held tomorrow in two BC ridings. Chilliwack-Hope and Port Moody-Coquitlam. The former is fairly conservative and the latter is more of a battle ground. However, with vote splitting, anything can happen tomorrow.

My analysis: http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.ca/2012/04/provincial-by-elections-in-bc.html

Maps:

Chilliwack-Hope


Port Moody-Coquitlam


Can the NDP win both? That's the question. Or can the Conservatives win both? Or the Liberals!? Huh
« Last Edit: April 18, 2012, 02:21:11 pm by Hatman »Logged

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« Reply #1 on: April 18, 2012, 02:40:30 pm »
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Port Moody-Coquitlam is almost a solid, for sure thing, guaranteed win for the NDP... they somehow won over Joe Transolini former mayor of Port Moody which is a solid candidate if that was the end of it... of it gets better, Joe used to be a big time BCliberal...
joining in the mid-’90s because, he even co-chaired Clark’s successful first provincial campaign in Port Moody in 1995. Hes a centrist no doubt and thats caused some no-one-is-saying-this-outloud ruffles amongst the traditionalists in the BCNDP. But a win is a win so.

Chilliwack-Hope is in the traditionally very conservative Fraser Valley; this one i am not so sure of... i have heard the Conservatives will win and that the NDP can win... first is likely if the Liberals just fall apart and the polls are suggesting they are almost done in the province. BUT if the Liberals hold on to most of their base... the NDPs candidate (who was the candidate in 09 and got 30% back then) could just win this with that 30% repeat... just look at the Hope area, its not like their is no base for the NDP in this riding.

1 BCNDP, 1 BCC would be the best/most likely outcome for the NDP
2 BCNDP would benefit the BCL cause then they can play that split-the-vote-elects-a-dipper card
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Hatman
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« Reply #2 on: April 18, 2012, 02:48:05 pm »
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Trasolini was a Liberal? Nice. I think this shows that the NDP is beginning to attract former Liberals and star candidates.

Here is what the parties are looking at for results:

Liberal expectations are low going into these by-elections, but I have to think that it would be a huge set back if they lost both. Some are suggesting an NDP win in Chilliwack-Kent would be good news for the Liberals, as they would show the dangers of vote splitting. However, a third place finish in either race would be a disaster. A win for the Liberals would be holding on to just one seat.

For the NDP, they have to win at least one of the by-elections to keep their momentum going. Losing both wouldn't be very good for them. The same goes for the Conservatives, they have to win one, or come in 2nd in both (ahead of the Liberals) to show they are a credible right wing alternative to the Liberals. There are certainly high stakes in these two by-elections for all three parties.
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« Reply #3 on: April 18, 2012, 02:50:44 pm »
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Hopefully the Tories do well.
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Linus Van Pelt
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« Reply #4 on: April 18, 2012, 09:22:57 pm »
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You appear to have the city of Chilliwack itself labelled as "Tzeachten" on your inset. Tzeachten, which I had never heard of until now, is just a small First Nation outside the city, and certainly not all those polls.
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Hatman
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« Reply #5 on: April 18, 2012, 10:18:26 pm »
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You appear to have the city of Chilliwack itself labelled as "Tzeachten" on your inset. Tzeachten, which I had never heard of until now, is just a small First Nation outside the city, and certainly not all those polls.

That's just part of Chilliwack. The inset was labelled as Tzeachten by Elections BC, so I assumed that's what the region was called: http://www3.elections.bc.ca/docs/rpt/2009GE/CHH.pdf
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« Reply #6 on: April 18, 2012, 11:20:48 pm »
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Well, it's obvious from their map than Tzeachten is only precincts 59, 60 and 61.
Also, it's quite balanced politically, as a reserve. Most are landslides for a party, in Canada.
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lilTommy
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« Reply #7 on: April 19, 2012, 08:17:15 am »
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Meh, labelling mistake, honest enough... but what i find odd is that the reserve voted more for the Liberals and what i had figured was that BC natives tended to vote more for the NDP? guess you can't lump.

So over "you-know-where" hes saying Chilliwack-Hope (hatman, i think it used to be called Chilliwack-Kent) says the NDP will win it. And i've been reading some articules in the Province and Sun (Van based both of them) and its looking like an NDP-Con fight. I'm no sold that Chilliwack-Hope is going NDP... the history of this being a Socred area then Liberal, generally favouring the "free-enterprise" flavour of the moment leave very little room for the NDP to grow more than 30%-35% and thats a at general election. Will the Liberal vote even show up? if it does will they stick with Clark or go over to BCC? a couple other bloggers are saying its looking like a BCC win. If the BCCs win, there might be a few more BCL MLAs who are looking to bolt over (thats the rumours ive been reading).
 
http://bciconcoclast.blogspot.ca/ - did a good review of the two by-elections
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Hatman
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« Reply #8 on: April 19, 2012, 12:12:39 pm »
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Well, it's obvious from their map than Tzeachten is only precincts 59, 60 and 61.
Also, it's quite balanced politically, as a reserve. Most are landslides for a party, in Canada.

Look at what the inset is labelled as.

Meh, labelling mistake, honest enough... but what i find odd is that the reserve voted more for the Liberals and what i had figured was that BC natives tended to vote more for the NDP? guess you can't lump.

So over "you-know-where" hes saying Chilliwack-Hope (hatman, i think it used to be called Chilliwack-Kent) says the NDP will win it. And i've been reading some articules in the Province and Sun (Van based both of them) and its looking like an NDP-Con fight. I'm no sold that Chilliwack-Hope is going NDP... the history of this being a Socred area then Liberal, generally favouring the "free-enterprise" flavour of the moment leave very little room for the NDP to grow more than 30%-35% and thats a at general election. Will the Liberal vote even show up? if it does will they stick with Clark or go over to BCC? a couple other bloggers are saying its looking like a BCC win. If the BCCs win, there might be a few more BCL MLAs who are looking to bolt over (thats the rumours ive been reading).
 
http://bciconcoclast.blogspot.ca/ - did a good review of the two by-elections

Hmm, well it might go Conservative because it's a by-election, and people like to use it as a protest vote, but as I've said, it's one of the few ridings that voted No in the by-election, meaning they have some faith in the government.
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lilTommy
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« Reply #9 on: April 19, 2012, 12:35:56 pm »
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Good Point, i think a few others in the lower mainland like Abbotsford... mostly the wealthier south of fraser areas voted No... and those non-canucks, this "no" vote were talking about was the HST referendum last year that the gov't lost, it was probably one of the major indicators that this gov't was in some serious trouble.
So 25 ridings supported the HST, all of them BCL held ridings... i wonder if those will be among the ridings that the Liberals will still hold next time around? again, linking to your site Earl...

http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.ca/2011/08/referendum-to-abolish-hst-fails-in-bc.html

Hmmm seems about right, most of the ridings are/have been won by the free marketing party. Except the 4 from/around Vancouver (Point Grey, False Creek, Fraserview, NVLonsdale) i see these are NDP pickups.

ANYWHO... the liberals are so unpopular i just don't see them winning CH, those who can't vote BCC or BCNDP i think just might stay home.

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« Reply #10 on: April 19, 2012, 01:09:13 pm »
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You appear to have the city of Chilliwack itself labelled as "Tzeachten" on your inset. Tzeachten, which I had never heard of until now, is just a small First Nation outside the city, and certainly not all those polls.

That's just part of Chilliwack. The inset was labelled as Tzeachten by Elections BC, so I assumed that's what the region was called: http://www3.elections.bc.ca/docs/rpt/2009GE/CHH.pdf


You're right about the labelling; weird.

According to the census the reserve is only about a quarter aboriginal by population, so you have to be careful about assuming who the Natives are voting for.
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Hatman
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« Reply #11 on: April 19, 2012, 01:48:34 pm »
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I noticed the reserve voting Liberal, and I assumed it was because of non natives.
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Hatman
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« Reply #12 on: April 19, 2012, 01:49:23 pm »
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BTW polls close at 8pm (11 Eastern).
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Hatman
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« Reply #13 on: April 19, 2012, 10:26:53 pm »
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Polls now closed.

4/132 polls in from Port Moody-Coquitlam

NDP: 131
Liberal: 32
Cons: 29 
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Hatman
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« Reply #14 on: April 19, 2012, 10:28:24 pm »
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2/126 polls in from Chilliwack-Kent

NDP: 62
Cons: 37
Lib: 35
Lbtn: 1 
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Hatman
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« Reply #15 on: April 19, 2012, 10:33:11 pm »
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NDP is ahead in both, the Conservatives are in third in both.

Chilliwack-Hope    Lewis Clarke Dahlby    Libertarian    2    0.43%
     John Martin    BC Conservative Party    118    25.32%
Gwen O'Mahony    BC NDP    212    45.49%
Laurie Throness    BC Liberal Party    134    28.76%
7 of 126 ballot boxes reported

Port Moody-Coquitlam    Christine N. Clarke    BC Conservative Party    57    12.75%
     Dennis Marsden    BC Liberal Party    102    22.82%
Joe Trasolini    BC NDP    288    64.43%
9 of 132 ballot boxes reported

From tweets it appears that the NDP is expected to win Port Moody-Coquitlam. Those are some pretty good numbers, and there certainly aren't that many polls in that riding that usually go that overwhelmingly NDP
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Hatman
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« Reply #16 on: April 19, 2012, 10:39:26 pm »
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I've seen enough. I declare the NDP elected in Port Moody-Coquitlam.
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« Reply #17 on: April 19, 2012, 10:53:00 pm »
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Where is the updated data?
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Hatman
EarlAW
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« Reply #18 on: April 19, 2012, 10:54:34 pm »
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Looks like the NDP will win Chilliwack-Kent too. Due to vote splitting, their lead there is larger:

Chilliwack-Hope    Lewis Clarke Dahlby    Libertarian    31    1.19%
     John Martin    BC Conservative Party    668    25.58%
Gwen O'Mahony    BC NDP    1,190    45.58%
Laurie Throness    BC Liberal Party    722    27.65%
33 of 126 ballot boxes reported

Port Moody-Coquitlam    Christine N. Clarke    BC Conservative Party    484    15.26%
     Dennis Marsden    BC Liberal Party    1,038    32.73%
Joe Trasolini    BC NDP    1,649    52.00%
47 of 132 ballot boxes reported
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« Reply #19 on: April 19, 2012, 10:54:53 pm »
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Chilliwack-Hope

Port Moody-Coquitlam
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Hatman
EarlAW
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« Reply #20 on: April 19, 2012, 10:58:35 pm »
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Oh geez, I thought he just wanted me to post the results. Silly me. :/

Will the Tories finish 2nd in Chilliwack-Kent? That's the real  race.
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« Reply #21 on: April 19, 2012, 11:06:31 pm »
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Oh geez, I thought he just wanted me to post the results. Silly me. :/

Will the Tories finish 2nd in Chilliwack-Kent? That's the real  race.

Indeed - that's the one I'm hoping for... I especially don't want a close NDP vs Liberal result there... that would be horrible!
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Hatman
EarlAW
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« Reply #22 on: April 19, 2012, 11:13:24 pm »
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Oh geez, I thought he just wanted me to post the results. Silly me. :/

Will the Tories finish 2nd in Chilliwack-Kent? That's the real  race.

Indeed - that's the one I'm hoping for... I especially don't want a close NDP vs Liberal result there... that would be horrible!

Except, that's what I predicted. It would be horrible for the NDP though, as the Liberals will now have an argument against voting Conservative and the right won't fracture like the NDP needs to form power.

As it stands the NDP have 42%, the Liberals 31% and Tories 26%.
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« Reply #23 on: April 19, 2012, 11:15:33 pm »
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Yea sorry for not being clear. So I am guessing that means Dippers will be in control of BC come next election?
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Hatman
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« Reply #24 on: April 19, 2012, 11:24:03 pm »
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Yea sorry for not being clear. So I am guessing that means Dippers will be in control of BC come next election?


Not necessarily. They need a divided right, and people will see the third place finish for the Conservatives and think "maybe I shouldn't waste my vote on them".

But, as I kept saying Chilliwack-Hope is more friendly to the BC Liberals than most ridings, LOOK AT THE HST VOTE.
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