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Author Topic: Provincial by-elections in BC tomorrow!  (Read 1778 times)
LastVoter
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« Reply #25 on: April 19, 2012, 11:36:32 pm »
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Yea sorry for not being clear. So I am guessing that means Dippers will be in control of BC come next election?


Not necessarily. They need a divided right, and people will see the third place finish for the Conservatives and think "maybe I shouldn't waste my vote on them".

But, as I kept saying Chilliwack-Hope is more friendly to the BC Liberals than most ridings, LOOK AT THE HST VOTE.
Is BC gerrymandered favorably liberals right now, meaning that Dippers would need to get 50% or even more to win? But even hypothetically if the right is not divided how does NDP win Nationally if they can't even win BC?
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« Reply #26 on: April 19, 2012, 11:39:41 pm »
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Yea sorry for not being clear. So I am guessing that means Dippers will be in control of BC come next election?


Not necessarily. They need a divided right, and people will see the third place finish for the Conservatives and think "maybe I shouldn't waste my vote on them".

But, as I kept saying Chilliwack-Hope is more friendly to the BC Liberals than most ridings, LOOK AT THE HST VOTE.
Is BC gerrymandered favorably liberals right now, meaning that Dippers would need to get 50% or even more to win? But even hypothetically if the right is not divided how does NDP win Nationally if they can't even win BC?

It's not that. There's just a slight majority of the BC population that will never vote NDP. The NDP can't get more than 50% of the vote, meaning they can't win in a 2 horse race. However, if the general election were held tonight, well...you'd be looking at an NDP landslide.
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LastVoter
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« Reply #27 on: April 19, 2012, 11:51:37 pm »
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Yea sorry for not being clear. So I am guessing that means Dippers will be in control of BC come next election?


Not necessarily. They need a divided right, and people will see the third place finish for the Conservatives and think "maybe I shouldn't waste my vote on them".

But, as I kept saying Chilliwack-Hope is more friendly to the BC Liberals than most ridings, LOOK AT THE HST VOTE.
Is BC gerrymandered favorably liberals right now, meaning that Dippers would need to get 50% or even more to win? But even hypothetically if the right is not divided how does NDP win Nationally if they can't even win BC?

It's not that. There's just a slight majority of the BC population that will never vote NDP. The NDP can't get more than 50% of the vote, meaning they can't win in a 2 horse race. However, if the general election were held tonight, well...you'd be looking at an NDP landslide.
Why? It seems to me that Liberal's have pissed off every swing able group, and most voters forgot the ferry fiasco.
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« Reply #28 on: April 19, 2012, 11:54:33 pm »
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All the polls in from Port Moody-Coquitlam
Joe Trasolini    BC NDP    6,070    54.36% (+14.56)
Dennis Marsden    BC Liberal Party    3,377    30.24% (-21.91)
Christine N. Clarke    BC Conservative Party    1,720    15.40% (+15.40)
 
Yea sorry for not being clear. So I am guessing that means Dippers will be in control of BC come next election?


Not necessarily. They need a divided right, and people will see the third place finish for the Conservatives and think "maybe I shouldn't waste my vote on them".

But, as I kept saying Chilliwack-Hope is more friendly to the BC Liberals than most ridings, LOOK AT THE HST VOTE.
Is BC gerrymandered favorably liberals right now, meaning that Dippers would need to get 50% or even more to win? But even hypothetically if the right is not divided how does NDP win Nationally if they can't even win BC?

It's not that. There's just a slight majority of the BC population that will never vote NDP. The NDP can't get more than 50% of the vote, meaning they can't win in a 2 horse race. However, if the general election were held tonight, well...you'd be looking at an NDP landslide.
Why? It seems to me that Liberal's have pissed off every swing able group, and most voters forgot the ferry fiasco.

That's BC for you. The entire political history of the province has been about parties coming together to keep the NDP from power.
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LastVoter
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« Reply #29 on: April 20, 2012, 12:08:36 am »
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All the polls in from Port Moody-Coquitlam
Joe Trasolini    BC NDP    6,070    54.36% (+14.56)
Dennis Marsden    BC Liberal Party    3,377    30.24% (-21.91)
Christine N. Clarke    BC Conservative Party    1,720    15.40% (+15.40)
 
Yea sorry for not being clear. So I am guessing that means Dippers will be in control of BC come next election?


Not necessarily. They need a divided right, and people will see the third place finish for the Conservatives and think "maybe I shouldn't waste my vote on them".

But, as I kept saying Chilliwack-Hope is more friendly to the BC Liberals than most ridings, LOOK AT THE HST VOTE.
Is BC gerrymandered favorably liberals right now, meaning that Dippers would need to get 50% or even more to win? But even hypothetically if the right is not divided how does NDP win Nationally if they can't even win BC?

It's not that. There's just a slight majority of the BC population that will never vote NDP. The NDP can't get more than 50% of the vote, meaning they can't win in a 2 horse race. However, if the general election were held tonight, well...you'd be looking at an NDP landslide.
Why? It seems to me that Liberal's have pissed off every swing able group, and most voters forgot the ferry fiasco.

That's BC for you. The entire political history of the province has been about parties coming together to keep the NDP from power.

Well isn't that National history too. CCF should have rightfully won the election post ww2(as it happened in other anglophone countries where labor movements won). It seems to me that Canadian voters will finally put NDP in power as aversion to right-wingers(rather than approval of NDP policies), and Muclair's moderate hero statements help too.
« Last Edit: April 20, 2012, 12:10:34 am by seatown »Logged
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« Reply #30 on: April 20, 2012, 12:50:21 am »
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All the polls in now from Chilliwack-Hope

Gwen O'Mahony    BC NDP    5,772    41.19% (+7.76)
Laurie Throness    BC Liberal Party    4,399    31.39% (-21.89)
John Martin    BC Conservative Party    3,548    25.32% (+18.22)
Lewis Clarke Dahlby    Libertarian    294    2.10% (+2.10)
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« Reply #31 on: April 20, 2012, 04:52:33 am »
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You know something big is going on when the NDP is winning in Chilliwack.
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« Reply #32 on: April 20, 2012, 06:11:32 am »
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Then again, anything which incorporates anything from Hope up into the interior is more inherently "NDP-friendly" that what is commonly assumed to be Chilliwackian...
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« Reply #33 on: April 20, 2012, 07:21:59 am »
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Well slap me stupid, i'm not so much shocked that the NDP won Chilliwack-Hope, i'm more so impressed that the voters who are traditionally conservative voted NDP by more that i had anticipated (35% was my high mark) rather then staying home. Vote splitting did lead to the NDP win in this riding, but common thats pretty much how the rest of the country votes and how we end up with tories winning in Ontario, so that knife cuts both ways. Its the system we have in place FPTP that creates these... anywho, this is BC and party loyalty is always second to defeating the NDP. I'd love to see the poll-by-poll results, where the NDP won in both Port Moody-Coquitlam and Chilliwack-Hope

This could be that demographics are slowly changing out this way in the Fraser; South of it has always been wealthier and more right wing, while North of it has been more middle class and more moderate-left. the farther out from Vancouver the cheaper the housing etc so we could see more and more of an outflux out to these communities of NDP-leaning voters into some traditional right-wing areas.

BCL are going to love this... but i still think they are dead in the water; they might be able to hold on to more ridings in the lowermainland but some of the much more conservative interior ridings might just go conservative. its the brand now, the NDP is not the old NDP of before teh 90s where they could play the extreme commies are coming card.
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« Reply #34 on: April 20, 2012, 11:41:29 am »
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I wonder if the NDP would've won the riding without the town of Hope. That would be pretty huge.
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« Reply #35 on: April 20, 2012, 12:22:25 pm »
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That why i want to see them poll maps! to see where the victories where and where the Liberals/Cons won/perform best.

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« Reply #36 on: April 20, 2012, 08:15:49 pm »
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The NDP will be the next government of BC, but the BC Libs won't drop out of existence so quickly. Maybe.
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« Reply #37 on: April 22, 2012, 09:28:39 am »
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I would say it was a great night for the NDP.  Not only did the win the normally BC Liberal friendly riding of Port Moody-Coquitlam, but won with over 50%.  Also while there win in Chilliwack-Hope was partly due to vote splitting on the right, they still got over 40% which is quite unusual for this riding.  After all even in 1991 and 1996, this did not go NDP when you had the same issue. 

For the BC Liberals a bad night, but the fact they came in second in both ridings including Chilliwack-Hope, at least allows them to make the claim that for voters who want a pro-free enterprise government, they are the party.

For the BC Conservatives, they did poorly as expected in Port Moody-Coquitlam (I should note this riding did go Conservative federally though) and the fact they came in third in Chilliwack-Hope must certainly be a disappointment.  The reality is they are simply too right wing for BC.  You can be centre-right like the BC Liberals or federal Conservatives and win in BC, but not hard right.  It might work in Alberta, although Danielle Smith is a much more telegenic leader than John Cummins so even if they share a similiar political philosophy, I think Smith is far more electable, never mind Alberta is a more conservative province to begin with. 
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« Reply #38 on: April 22, 2012, 01:31:21 pm »
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pro-free enterprise

I hate that term. The NDP is still pro-free enterprise. The correct term is "right wing" to describe the Liberals+Conservatives.

Quote
For the BC Conservatives, they did poorly as expected in Port Moody-Coquitlam (I should note this riding did go Conservative federally though) and the fact they came in third in Chilliwack-Hope must certainly be a disappointment.  The reality is they are simply too right wing for BC.  You can be centre-right like the BC Liberals or federal Conservatives and win in BC, but not hard right.  It might work in Alberta, although Danielle Smith is a much more telegenic leader than John Cummins so even if they share a similiar political philosophy, I think Smith is far more electable, never mind Alberta is a more conservative province to begin with. 

Again, Chilliwack-Hope isn't the best riding for the BC Conservatives. How many times do I have to cite the HST referendum?
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« Reply #39 on: April 22, 2012, 01:59:45 pm »
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pro-free enterprise

I hate that term. The NDP is still pro-free enterprise. The correct term is "right wing" to describe the Liberals+Conservatives.

Quote
For the BC Conservatives, they did poorly as expected in Port Moody-Coquitlam (I should note this riding did go Conservative federally though) and the fact they came in third in Chilliwack-Hope must certainly be a disappointment.  The reality is they are simply too right wing for BC.  You can be centre-right like the BC Liberals or federal Conservatives and win in BC, but not hard right.  It might work in Alberta, although Danielle Smith is a much more telegenic leader than John Cummins so even if they share a similiar political philosophy, I think Smith is far more electable, never mind Alberta is a more conservative province to begin with.  

Again, Chilliwack-Hope isn't the best riding for the BC Conservatives. How many times do I have to cite the HST referendum?

Maybe pro free market is better.  I am not saying the NDP is anti-business, but they do tend to favour greater government intervention in the economy as supposed to less and they generally are against privatization and favour nationalization of some key sectors, although certainly not the whole economy.  By contrast the other two are pretty much against nationalization in all cases and favour privatization of some crown corporations. I agree Chilliwack-Hope is not the strongest Conservative riding, but I would definitely put it in the top 20 if not the top 10.  Maybe not the top 5, i.e. the two Abbotsford ridings, Langley ridings, other Chilliwack riding, Central Okanagan Valley and Peace River Country, I would rank as more favourable to them, but thats about it.  If you look at the Social Credit in 1991 and Reform Party in 1996, that is probably the best indicator where they should be strongest.  
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« Reply #40 on: April 22, 2012, 03:34:21 pm »
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Peace River is the best region for the Conservatives right now, I think. If an election were held right now, I would posit they would only win the 2 ridings there and nothing else.
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« Reply #41 on: April 22, 2012, 04:13:07 pm »
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Sort of like BC Reform in 1996, in fact.
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« Reply #42 on: April 22, 2012, 04:21:12 pm »
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I would agree.  Basically the 2 seats that went BC Reform Party in the worse case scenario to the 7 seats that went Social credit in 1991 in the best case scenario for the BC Conservatives.  I should note Chilliwack-Hope did not go BC Reform in 1996 and I don't think it went Social Credit in 1991 either.
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« Reply #43 on: May 17, 2012, 03:49:47 am »
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That why i want to see them poll maps! to see where the victories where and where the Liberals/Cons won/perform best.


Whenabouts (if ever) will such data be released, and where?
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« Reply #44 on: May 17, 2012, 03:54:34 am »
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That why i want to see them poll maps! to see where the victories where and where the Liberals/Cons won/perform best.


Whenabouts (if ever) will such data be released, and where?

Very variable depending of province and on the election website. In this case, BC Elections.

But doesn't that thread redundant with the Canadian by-elections one?
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Hatman
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« Reply #45 on: May 17, 2012, 09:16:52 am »
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The information will appear on this page when it's ready: http://www.elections.bc.ca/index.php/resource-centre/reports/

BTW, did anyone see the poll that had the NDP at 50% in BC? Also, the BC Liberals are considering a name change.
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