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Author Topic: Counties Obama can flip from red to blue  (Read 1268 times)
Devils30
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« on: April 18, 2012, 04:11:54 pm »
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Probably not many out there but I think there will be a few. Here are my possibilities:
NC: Nash, Franklin
VA: Southampton
FL: Sarasota, Seminole(stretch here)
PA: not really buying idea of SW flipping back so none
CA: Orange (possible but unlikely barring national shift)
TX: Fort Bend
NJ: Monmouth- this too is a stretch
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TXMichael
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« Reply #1 on: April 18, 2012, 05:11:56 pm »
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TX - Hays County

In the Austin media market McCain barely won this county in 2008, with the Hispanic population growth and university present Obama could flip this county
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« Reply #2 on: April 18, 2012, 05:32:14 pm »
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There's talk of Obama campaigning harder in AZ this time, and there's some demographic support for his having a real shot. McCain's success depended to a considerable extent on over-performing with Hispanics, and there's a case that that won't happen this time.
But funnily enough, I think if he did win the state, he'd do it without flipping a single county, just narrowing his margin of defeat in Maricopa.
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« Reply #3 on: April 18, 2012, 05:50:21 pm »
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How about Virginia Beach City?

McCain won by it a tiny margin and he's got the Navy advantage.
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ajb
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« Reply #4 on: April 18, 2012, 05:56:47 pm »
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How about Virginia Beach City?

McCain won by it a tiny margin and he's got the Navy advantage.
Also, it's gone from  72.5% non-Hispanic White to 64.5% from 2000 to 2010, and from 12% black to 19.6% black.
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perdedor
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« Reply #5 on: April 18, 2012, 07:32:38 pm »
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TX - Hays County

In the Austin media market McCain barely won this county in 2008, with the Hispanic population growth and university present Obama could flip this county

I wouldn't think so. Hays borders the southern side of Travis, which is considerably more white/suburban than the central and northern parts of the county. Obama lost Hays by 2% in 2008 when conditions were near perfect; compare to 56-42 win for Bush in 2004 and a 58-33 win for Bush in 2000 (Nader interestingly pulled 7%). The point being that Obama likely hit his Hays County ceiling in 2008.
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« Reply #6 on: April 18, 2012, 07:35:33 pm »
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What about Deschutes county in Oregon or Spokane county in Washington? Those were nail bitters in 2008.
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« Reply #7 on: April 18, 2012, 07:54:32 pm »
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I'd say one of the good way to predict whether a county will flip is use Google maps from 2008/2012 and see what kind of construction is being done in the suburb counties(how dense). Hays most of the new subdivisions in Hays county seem to be pretty dense(near Austin), and there are a couple new apartment complexes I found in San Marcos. There is a big subdivision west of San Marcos that looks like a country club that grew a lot however.
What about Deschutes county in Oregon or Spokane county in Washington? Those were nail bitters in 2008.
Deschutes will almost certainly go Obama, Spokane will likely go Obama.
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« Reply #8 on: April 18, 2012, 07:59:41 pm »
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Any urban or non-Southern suburban county that was relatively close last time. Demographic changes.
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« Reply #9 on: April 18, 2012, 08:02:34 pm »
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Any urban or non-Southern suburban county that was relatively close last night. Demographic changes.
I think the county near Austin we are talking about in this thread would be the exception. Also maybe something in NC?
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« Reply #10 on: April 18, 2012, 08:33:53 pm »
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Probably not many out there but I think there will be a few. Here are my possibilities:
NC: Nash, Franklin
VA: Southampton
FL: Sarasota, Seminole(stretch here)
PA: not really buying idea of SW flipping back so none
CA: Orange (possible but unlikely barring national shift)
TX: Fort Bend
NJ: Monmouth- this too is a stretch

Sarasota and maybe Pasco seem the most likely in Florida. Seminole'll stay R for another couple cycles, but demographics will make it D in 10-20 years. Obama did pretty well in Hernando County too, so there's that.
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Miles
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« Reply #11 on: April 18, 2012, 08:39:35 pm »
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NC: Nash, Franklin


I'd also add Lenior and New Hanover.

Tyrrell, Chowan, Swain, Madison and Yancey are all possible, but they're trending the wrong way.  
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« Reply #12 on: April 18, 2012, 08:48:42 pm »
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OH: Harrison, Guernsey, Pike, Morgan, Muskingum, Hocking, Perry, Vinton, and Coshocton are possible. All are in the rural SE, which has been trending toward the GOP, but were close last time. Obama won the swing counties in the rest of the state in '08 already and outside the SE the best possibilities are Huron and Seneca, which won't happen unless it is an epic landslide.

EDIT: I forgot McCain carried Clark County. Clark would be the most likely pick-up for Obama.
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« Reply #13 on: April 18, 2012, 09:12:05 pm »
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Most likely is Orange in California, but Romney seems like a better fit than McCain. Demographics +poor Romney campaign could cause it to flip.

Del Norte is an odd one. It could flip to Obama's column.
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BaldEagle1991
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« Reply #14 on: April 18, 2012, 09:53:00 pm »
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I think he can flip Denton County, TX or Galveston County, TX blue, although they could be a stretch.
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« Reply #15 on: April 18, 2012, 10:09:56 pm »
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I think he can flip Denton County, TX or Galveston County, TX blue, although they could be a stretch.

Denton County is several cycles away from being a Democratic possibility; Tarrant County will go blue before it does. Galveston County has been in a slow decline for the past century and is probably going to get more Republican as time goes on and its population gets smaller.
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It wouldn't come as a surprise. It would come as an M. Night Shyamalan-in-his-prime plot twist.
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« Reply #16 on: April 18, 2012, 10:13:45 pm »
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I think he can flip Denton County, TX or Galveston County, TX blue, although they could be a stretch.

Galveston County has been in a slow decline for the past century and is probably going to get more Republican as time goes on and its population gets smaller.

But I have seen old maps of it being blue, whatever happened to that? Plus you have to realize Galveston is a blue city, and Texas City, La Marque, having lots of minorties.
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« Reply #17 on: April 18, 2012, 10:17:11 pm »
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Members who have been here for longer than a month and still refer to Republicans as red and Democrats as blue should receive infraction points.
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« Reply #18 on: April 18, 2012, 10:43:06 pm »
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If Obama wins California by the margins the polls have been showing, Orange is a good possibility.

How about Richmond (Staten Island) New York? Killing Bin Laden should reverse any remaining 9/11 effect there.  Upstate there are some very narrow McCain counties, particularly Ontario.

Not going to happen (either Orange or Richmond).  Staten Island (Richmond) is one of the last places I'd expect to trend to Obama.  It is historically Republican and full of Archie Bunker types that simply don't like Obama. 

OC should trend more Republican than 2008 as the Torie Republicans return home.  I also would be surprised to see Sarasota County, Florida flip for similar reasons.
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« Reply #19 on: April 18, 2012, 10:46:59 pm »
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If Obama wins California by the margins the polls have been showing, Orange is a good possibility.

How about Richmond (Staten Island) New York? Killing Bin Laden should reverse any remaining 9/11 effect there.  Upstate there are some very narrow McCain counties, particularly Ontario.

Not going to happen (either Orange or Richmond).  Staten Island (Richmond) is one of the last places I'd expect to trend to Obama.  It is historically Republican and full of Archie Bunker types that simply don't like Obama.  

OC should trend more Republican than 2008 as the Torie Republicans return home.  I also would be surprised to see Sarasota County, Florida flip for similar reasons.

Gore won Richmond NY by 7 points so it would be much less shocking from a historical perspective than Orange CA, which I believe last went Democratic in 1936.

Orange CA is down to 44% non-Hispanic white. Obviously many of the other 56% can't vote, but  with that trend it will go Democrat sooner or later.
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« Reply #20 on: April 18, 2012, 10:53:06 pm »
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Orange County has been on a steady trend away from Republicans, past electoral results show that. Places like Irvine and Costa Mesa are voting more Democratic, than before. It may not flip, but it's not impossible.
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« Reply #21 on: April 19, 2012, 12:28:52 am »
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One place I'd be really looking for this is central Ohio or the close counties in Missouri last time.

But if you forced me to bet on one, I'd put my money on Spokane. Actually New Hanover, NC might be an even better bet.

Here's a strong possibility that will likely go overlooked: Valley, ID
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jfern
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« Reply #22 on: April 19, 2012, 01:00:35 am »
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If you want to count them, I bet some Alaska House districts flip.
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« Reply #23 on: April 19, 2012, 01:14:34 am »
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I'm kind of surprised people have such strong intuitions about Spokane.  It's seen very little minority growth (it's still 89% white) and is pretty damn average in terms of its voter base.  The growth areas are also quite Republican.  It was very close in 2008, but I don't see any other reasons for it to be a candidate.
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« Reply #24 on: April 19, 2012, 01:44:58 am »
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I'm kind of surprised people have such strong intuitions about Spokane.  It's seen very little minority growth (it's still 89% white) and is pretty damn average in terms of its voter base.  The growth areas are also quite Republican.  It was very close in 2008, but I don't see any other reasons for it to be a candidate.
Spokane has a lot of poors that won't like Mittens.
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