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Author Topic: Counties Obama can flip from red to blue  (Read 1260 times)
CultureKing
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« Reply #25 on: April 19, 2012, 01:51:42 am »
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I'm kind of surprised people have such strong intuitions about Spokane.  It's seen very little minority growth (it's still 89% white) and is pretty damn average in terms of its voter base.  The growth areas are also quite Republican.  It was very close in 2008, but I don't see any other reasons for it to be a candidate.
Spokane has a lot of poors that won't like Mittens.

Yep. Personally I think depressed voter turnout for blue-collar workers could alone tilt Spokane to Obama. Also the county has been swinging left and right for the last decade or so (especially in mayoral elections).
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« Reply #26 on: April 19, 2012, 02:04:46 am »
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For counties to flip you have to look for areas that:

-Swung to Obama, but not massively as evidence of a clear overperformance which was likely caused by the weakness of McCain/Palin (the second half of the ticket really needs a mention when discussing this), which I think OC qualifies as (other obvious examples are Kent County, MI or those exurban Chicago counties even if you ignore the home state advantage)
-Aren't particularly racist or have a reason to hate Obama more than a generic Democrat.
-Did vote for McCain just because of general conservatism, likely on social issues, and aren't really likely to get excited about Romney for obvious reasons.

So like the Ohio cornbelt is a great example, Spokane qualifies for an urban area. Those counties in Colorado McCain all won with less than 50% that are undergoing demographic changes (either Hispanics or skiiers moving in) also are obvious picks. And here in Minnesota we have a few that look pretty easy (Goodhue, Renville, Lyon...)

But I think Valley, ID is being significantly overlooked. Maybe because yeah, it's Idaho, who cares, but this place has been clearly trending a la Blaine and Teton. And I don't think there's many Mormons in that area either. Another Idaho county to watch is Shoshone (an old mining area that's traditionally Democratic, doesn't have many Mormons, and isn't likely to be too fond of Romney.)
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« Reply #27 on: April 19, 2012, 02:08:16 am »
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Looking at Idaho, could Ada flip? I imagine that urban growth would shift it to the Democrats there.
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« Reply #28 on: April 19, 2012, 02:11:19 am »
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Looking at Idaho, could Ada flip? I imagine that urban growth would shift it to the Democrats there.

I think Boise has too many Mormons and likely moderate Republicans who were turned off by Palin. The Bill Sali results in Ada are evidence that many normally loyal Republican voters there will flip if the ticket involves a total blithering idiot, though I guess the possibility of the Romney ticket having one can't be ruled out.
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« Reply #29 on: April 19, 2012, 09:39:24 am »
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BRTD.... what counties in central Ohio or in the "cornbelt" are you speaking of? "Central Ohio" is the Columbus metropolitan area where Franklin County is safely Democratic and all of the exurban counties are safely Republican.

The part of Ohio that most resembles a "cornbelt" is the west-central area that voted 60+% for McCain in almost every county.

The only Ohio county outside of the SE I could see flipping toward Obama is Clark.
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« Reply #30 on: April 19, 2012, 10:46:58 am »
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I'm thinking of ones like Coshocton, Knox and Muskingum. A bit east of central Ohio I suppose.
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« Reply #31 on: April 19, 2012, 11:15:18 am »
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I propose Allen Co., Indiana (Fort Wayne).
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« Reply #32 on: April 19, 2012, 11:17:40 am »
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In Kentucky, I think it's almost a given that Franklin, Floyd, and Marion will flip.

If I went by what I see on the ground (or if Gingrich was the nominee), Campbell would be gone too, quite frankly. If that happens, a lot of other counties are flipping with it.
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« Reply #33 on: April 19, 2012, 12:07:08 pm »
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I'm thinking of ones like Coshocton, Knox and Muskingum. A bit east of central Ohio I suppose.

Coshocton and Muskingum are possibilities but would be considered Southeast Ohio by most people. No chance at all of Knox. John McCain won it by 20 points. Obama has a better  chance of winning Nebraska or Kansas.
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« Reply #34 on: April 19, 2012, 06:15:08 pm »
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I'm thinking of ones like Coshocton, Knox and Muskingum. A bit east of central Ohio I suppose.

Coshocton and Muskingum are possibilities but would be considered Southeast Ohio by most people. No chance at all of Knox. John McCain won it by 20 points. Obama has a better  chance of winning Nebraska or Kansas.

Agree. I'd encourage people to look at the 08 Ohio trend map to see why Obama will have to at least match--and probably surpass--his 08 numbers here to switch an ultra close county like Harrison or Hocking. The culture in that swath of eastern and southeastern counties is similar to SW PA and Appalachia, respectively. Two areas Obama has always been weak in. Muskingum County maybe as I understand Zanesville is increasingly Dem leaning.

Seneca and Huron might be better bets, but again, he'll have to at least match 08 numbers statewide.
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« Reply #35 on: April 19, 2012, 06:47:52 pm »
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Looking at Idaho, could Ada flip? I imagine that urban growth would shift it to the Democrats there.

I think Boise has too many Mormons and likely moderate Republicans who were turned off by Palin. The Bill Sali results in Ada are evidence that many normally loyal Republican voters there will flip if the ticket involves a total blithering idiot, though I guess the possibility of the Romney ticket having one can't be ruled out.
Yea a Mormon nominee would be strong in Boise, their turnout would be off the charts. 2016 would be a good bet though.
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« Reply #36 on: April 19, 2012, 07:10:35 pm »
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I'm thinking of ones like Coshocton, Knox and Muskingum. A bit east of central Ohio I suppose.

Coshocton and Muskingum are possibilities but would be considered Southeast Ohio by most people. No chance at all of Knox. John McCain won it by 20 points. Obama has a better  chance of winning Nebraska or Kansas.

Agree. I'd encourage people to look at the 08 Ohio trend map to see why Obama will have to at least match--and probably surpass--his 08 numbers here to switch an ultra close county like Harrison or Hocking. The culture in that swath of eastern and southeastern counties is similar to SW PA and Appalachia, respectively. Two areas Obama has always been weak in. Muskingum County maybe as I understand Zanesville is increasingly Dem leaning.

Seneca and Huron might be better bets, but again, he'll have to at least match 08 numbers statewide.

Seneca and Huron would be terrible bets. Obama vastly overperformed there in '08 and NW Ohio has swung harder in the Republican direction since than any other part of the state. I'd go with something in the SE or Clark or nothing at all.
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« Reply #37 on: April 19, 2012, 07:12:24 pm »
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Mind you, the recent polls in Ohio have Obama ahead by 6-8. If that held true in the fall (and I concede that's something of an "if"), presumably some counties would have to swing his way.
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« Reply #38 on: April 19, 2012, 07:21:34 pm »
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Mind you, the recent polls in Ohio have Obama ahead by 6-8. If that held true in the fall (and I concede that's something of an "if"), presumably some counties would have to swing his way.

Obama won by 4.5 last time so if we say he wins by 6 this time, somehow magically by uniform swing, he would pick up Hocking and Pike. If he wins by 8, he would also get Huron, Seneca, Hocking, and Perry. But in a world where Obama wins by 8 he most likely either overperforms his '08 numbers in urban areas or finds a way to win the working class white Dems in the SE and doesn't swing anywhere close to evenly. It gets very hard for him to pick up counties because he already one most of the ones open to either party last time.
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« Reply #39 on: April 19, 2012, 07:55:38 pm »
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Just some wild guesses
Duval, Seminole, Pasco, Hernando - Florida.
Maricopa - Arizona.
Frederick, Anne Arundel - Maryland.
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« Reply #40 on: April 19, 2012, 08:14:31 pm »
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Gwinnett and Cobb, the suburban giants of ATL.

Here's why:

Gwinnett demographics
     -44% non hispanic white
     -24% African American
     -20% Hispanic
     -10% Asian

yes this is in mutha f****n Georgia

Cobb Demographics
     -56% non hispanic white
     -25% African American
     -12% hispanic
     -4.5% Asian

Cobb is whiter but about 30-35% of the white vote went for Obama in '08, which is big for GA
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« Reply #41 on: April 19, 2012, 08:16:06 pm »
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Gwinnett and Cobb, the suburban giants of ATL.

Here's why:

Gwinnett demographics
     -44% non hispanic white
     -24% African American
     -20% Hispanic
     -10% Asian

yes this is in mutha f****n Georgia

Cobb Demographics
     -56% non hispanic white
     -25% African American
     -12% hispanic
     -4.5% Asian

Cobb is whiter but about 30-35% of the white vote went for Obama in '08, which is big for GA

Diversity at it's finest.
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« Reply #42 on: April 19, 2012, 08:47:25 pm »
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Mind you, the recent polls in Ohio have Obama ahead by 6-8. If that held true in the fall (and I concede that's something of an "if"), presumably some counties would have to swing his way.

Obama won by 4.5 last time so if we say he wins by 6 this time, somehow magically by uniform swing, he would pick up Hocking and Pike. If he wins by 8, he would also get Huron, Seneca, Hocking, and Perry. But in a world where Obama wins by 8 he most likely either overperforms his '08 numbers in urban areas or finds a way to win the working class white Dems in the SE and doesn't swing anywhere close to evenly. It gets very hard for him to pick up counties because he already one most of the ones open to either party last time.

It's true that on closer inspection Ohio had an astonishing number of McCain 55-Obama 45 counties (or thereabouts) last time. On uniform swing, and with a 6-8 point Obama lead, these would all become even closer, but would stick with the Republicans.
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« Reply #43 on: April 19, 2012, 09:09:26 pm »
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I definitely got Knox confused with some other county, probably Perry. Hocking is another one worthy of note, though that is indisputably southeast Ohio.
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« Reply #44 on: April 19, 2012, 09:18:31 pm »
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Just some wild guesses
Duval, Seminole, Pasco, Hernando - Florida.
Maricopa - Arizona.
Frederick, Anne Arundel - Maryland.

I don't see any way Obama can pick up Duval. It may he the largest city in Florida, but it's Republican, very much so. The mayoral election was a fluke. Seminole's a massive Republican stronghold; maybe in 2020 or something demographics will make it competitive, but not now. Pasco/Hernando, however, are competitive, and Obama has a real shot, especially in Pasco.
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