Counties Obama can flip from red to blue

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

One place I'd be really looking for this is central Ohio or the close counties in Missouri last time.

But if you forced me to bet on one, I'd put my money on Spokane. Actually New Hanover, NC might be an even better bet.

Here's a strong possibility that will likely go overlooked: Valley, ID

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

For counties to flip you have to look for areas that:

-Swung to Obama, but not massively as evidence of a clear overperformance which was likely caused by the weakness of McCain/Palin (the second half of the ticket really needs a mention when discussing this), which I think OC qualifies as (other obvious examples are Kent County, MI or those exurban Chicago counties even if you ignore the home state advantage)
-Aren't particularly racist or have a reason to hate Obama more than a generic Democrat.
-Did vote for McCain just because of general conservatism, likely on social issues, and aren't really likely to get excited about Romney for obvious reasons.

So like the Ohio cornbelt is a great example, Spokane qualifies for an urban area. Those counties in Colorado McCain all won with less than 50% that are undergoing demographic changes (either Hispanics or skiiers moving in) also are obvious picks. And here in Minnesota we have a few that look pretty easy (Goodhue, Renville, Lyon...)

But I think Valley, ID is being significantly overlooked. Maybe because yeah, it's Idaho, who cares, but this place has been clearly trending a la Blaine and Teton. And I don't think there's many Mormons in that area either. Another Idaho county to watch is Shoshone (an old mining area that's traditionally Democratic, doesn't have many Mormons, and isn't likely to be too fond of Romney.)

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Looking at Idaho, could Ada flip? I imagine that urban growth would shift it to the Democrats there.

I think Boise has too many Mormons and likely moderate Republicans who were turned off by Palin. The Bill Sali results in Ada are evidence that many normally loyal Republican voters there will flip if the ticket involves a total blithering idiot, though I guess the possibility of the Romney ticket having one can't be ruled out.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I'm thinking of ones like Coshocton, Knox and Muskingum. A bit east of central Ohio I suppose.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I definitely got Knox confused with some other county, probably Perry. Hocking is another one worthy of note, though that is indisputably southeast Ohio.