Counties Obama can flip from red to blue

[TJ in Oregon]

OH: Harrison, Guernsey, Pike, Morgan, Muskingum, Hocking, Perry, Vinton, and Coshocton are possible. All are in the rural SE, which has been trending toward the GOP, but were close last time. Obama won the swing counties in the rest of the state in '08 already and outside the SE the best possibilities are Huron and Seneca, which won't happen unless it is an epic landslide.

EDIT: I forgot McCain carried Clark County. Clark would be the most likely pick-up for Obama.

[TJ in Oregon]

BRTD.... what counties in central Ohio or in the "cornbelt" are you speaking of? "Central Ohio" is the Columbus metropolitan area where Franklin County is safely Democratic and all of the exurban counties are safely Republican.

The part of Ohio that most resembles a "cornbelt" is the west-central area that voted 60+% for McCain in almost every county.

The only Ohio county outside of the SE I could see flipping toward Obama is Clark.

[TJ in Oregon]

I'm thinking of ones like Coshocton, Knox and Muskingum. A bit east of central Ohio I suppose.

Coshocton and Muskingum are possibilities but would be considered Southeast Ohio by most people. No chance at all of Knox. John McCain won it by 20 points. Obama has a better  chance of winning Nebraska or Kansas.

[TJ in Oregon]

I'm thinking of ones like Coshocton, Knox and Muskingum. A bit east of central Ohio I suppose.

Coshocton and Muskingum are possibilities but would be considered Southeast Ohio by most people. No chance at all of Knox. John McCain won it by 20 points. Obama has a better  chance of winning Nebraska or Kansas.

Agree. I'd encourage people to look at the 08 Ohio trend map to see why Obama will have to at least match--and probably surpass--his 08 numbers here to switch an ultra close county like Harrison or Hocking. The culture in that swath of eastern and southeastern counties is similar to SW PA and Appalachia, respectively. Two areas Obama has always been weak in. Muskingum County maybe as I understand Zanesville is increasingly Dem leaning.

Seneca and Huron might be better bets, but again, he'll have to at least match 08 numbers statewide.

Seneca and Huron would be terrible bets. Obama vastly overperformed there in '08 and NW Ohio has swung harder in the Republican direction since than any other part of the state. I'd go with something in the SE or Clark or nothing at all.

[TJ in Oregon]

Mind you, the recent polls in Ohio have Obama ahead by 6-8. If that held true in the fall (and I concede that's something of an "if"), presumably some counties would have to swing his way.

Obama won by 4.5 last time so if we say he wins by 6 this time, somehow magically by uniform swing, he would pick up Hocking and Pike. If he wins by 8, he would also get Huron, Seneca, Hocking, and Perry. But in a world where Obama wins by 8 he most likely either overperforms his '08 numbers in urban areas or finds a way to win the working class white Dems in the SE and doesn't swing anywhere close to evenly. It gets very hard for him to pick up counties because he already one most of the ones open to either party last time.