Counties Obama can flip from red to blue

[ajb]

There's talk of Obama campaigning harder in AZ this time, and there's some demographic support for his having a real shot. McCain's success depended to a considerable extent on over-performing with Hispanics, and there's a case that that won't happen this time.
But funnily enough, I think if he did win the state, he'd do it without flipping a single county, just narrowing his margin of defeat in Maricopa.

[ajb]

How about Virginia Beach City?

McCain won by it a tiny margin and he's got the Navy advantage.

Also, it's gone from  72.5% non-Hispanic White to 64.5% from 2000 to 2010, and from 12% black to 19.6% black.

[ajb]

Mind you, the recent polls in Ohio have Obama ahead by 6-8. If that held true in the fall (and I concede that's something of an "if"), presumably some counties would have to swing his way.

[ajb]

Mind you, the recent polls in Ohio have Obama ahead by 6-8. If that held true in the fall (and I concede that's something of an "if"), presumably some counties would have to swing his way.

Obama won by 4.5 last time so if we say he wins by 6 this time, somehow magically by uniform swing, he would pick up Hocking and Pike. If he wins by 8, he would also get Huron, Seneca, Hocking, and Perry. But in a world where Obama wins by 8 he most likely either overperforms his '08 numbers in urban areas or finds a way to win the working class white Dems in the SE and doesn't swing anywhere close to evenly. It gets very hard for him to pick up counties because he already one most of the ones open to either party last time.

It's true that on closer inspection Ohio had an astonishing number of McCain 55-Obama 45 counties (or thereabouts) last time. On uniform swing, and with a 6-8 point Obama lead, these would all become even closer, but would stick with the Republicans.