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| | |-+  What would Texas map look like when it flips(2016 or 2020)?
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Author Topic: What would Texas map look like when it flips(2016 or 2020)?  (Read 2214 times)
LastVoter
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« on: April 18, 2012, 08:17:46 pm »
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I might have missed a few counties that were over 60% McCain, but I doubt those will change much anyway since they are mostly rural, and wouldn't become suburbs.
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#Ready4Nixon
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« Reply #1 on: April 18, 2012, 08:43:33 pm »
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You're convinced it'll flip that soon?
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Snowstalker
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« Reply #2 on: April 18, 2012, 08:56:20 pm »
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It won't flip that soon, sadly. Republicans will learn their lesson about alienating Hispanics this fall. Hispanics will vote ~70% Obama, and the 2016 nominee will at least try to get >35% of them.

Also, the day the Democratic party drops the workers for affluent suburbia is the day I leave the party to form the American Labor Party.
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LastVoter
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« Reply #3 on: April 18, 2012, 09:27:15 pm »
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You're convinced it'll flip that soon?
No, but I am saying if it will flip by 2020 that's how the map will look. If it flips after that the map will be different.
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#Ready4Nixon
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« Reply #4 on: April 18, 2012, 09:29:32 pm »
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Also, the day the Democratic party drops the workers for affluent suburbia is the day I leave the party to form the American Labor Party.

I'll be cheering you on.
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BaldEagle1991
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« Reply #5 on: April 18, 2012, 09:55:18 pm »
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No way in hell Collin County, TX will flip in 2016, maybe 2020 though.

I have a feeling Denton County will be blue county sooner or later.
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« Reply #6 on: April 18, 2012, 10:19:15 pm »
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according to the exit polls...

Just as a reminder, in 2008, McCain got 35% of Hispanics in Texas and they were 20% of voters (Cornyn actually got 36%).  It was closer to 38% for Perry in 2010, who got similar numbers to McCain overall, and undoubtedly higher down the ballot, as those politicians got better numbers. 

There were very little gaps between whites in age, sex or whatever (we're talking 69-30 McCain 18-29 yr olds v. 78-20 McCain 65+olds)

Sure, Hispanic voting turnout in Texas is laughable, but if they keep voting at the 35% level (in theory), they would probably need to get up to 35% (or 35% in combination with Asians) of the total voters to flip the state, at minimum.

So, what would we be looking at - 15-20 years at earliest?  Of course, the Democratic party both locally and nationally, has been ignoring Texas Hispanics, making the same silly assumptions I see above.  And in the past 15 years, we've gone from Republicans regularly getting 20%-25% of the Hispanic vote in Texas, to getting 35%-40% regularly.
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LastVoter
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« Reply #7 on: April 18, 2012, 10:31:31 pm »
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2016 is under the assumption that Schweitzer is the nominee btw. He should get 3-5% bump among the whites compared to Obama. Also democratic party would probably try to flip Texas by increasing minority turnout. 2020 is among other candidates.
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BaldEagle1991
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« Reply #8 on: April 18, 2012, 11:05:18 pm »
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Sure, Hispanic voting turnout in Texas is laughable, but if they keep voting at the 35% level (in theory), they would probably need to get up to 35% (or 35% in combination with Asians) of the total voters to flip the state, at minimum.

So, what would we be looking at - 15-20 years at earliest?  Of course, the Democratic party both locally and nationally, has been ignoring Texas Hispanics, making the same silly assumptions I see above.  And in the past 15 years, we've gone from Republicans regularly getting 20%-25% of the Hispanic vote in Texas, to getting 35%-40% regularly.

In the next 15 years it will go back to 20%-25% by the way things are going.
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« Reply #9 on: April 18, 2012, 11:47:43 pm »
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Also, the day the Democratic party drops the workers for affluent suburbia is the day I leave the party to form the American Labor Party.

Didn't that day occur like 20 years ago?
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LastVoter
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« Reply #10 on: April 19, 2012, 12:20:39 am »
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It won't flip that soon, sadly. Republicans will learn their lesson about alienating Hispanics this fall. Hispanics will vote ~70% Obama, and the 2016 nominee will at least try to get >35% of them.

Also, the day the Democratic party drops the workers for affluent suburbia is the day I leave the party to form the American Labor Party.
America no longer looks like this:

but more like this:

Democratic party left the labor interests since WW2.
« Last Edit: April 19, 2012, 12:22:20 am by seatown »Logged
LastVoter
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« Reply #11 on: April 19, 2012, 12:29:16 am »
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But really, does nobody want to project what a democratic win will look like in Texas under short term political climate?
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redcommander
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« Reply #12 on: April 19, 2012, 02:18:09 am »
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You do realize Texas Hispanics are much more conservative than in many other states right? Perry got 40% of them to vote for him in 2010. Plus just look at how many Texas Republican officeholders are Hispanic. Cruz for instance is likely to to be the next senator from the state. Just because a plurality of the state is likely going to be Hispanic by the next census doesn't mean that it's going to be friendly ground for Democrats.
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Snowstalker
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« Reply #13 on: April 19, 2012, 09:20:52 am »
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That view is of a very wealthy suburb, based on those houses. We need a party who sticks up for the common man, not a party of wishy-washy neoliberals.
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BaldEagle1991
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« Reply #14 on: April 19, 2012, 11:47:21 am »
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You do realize Texas Hispanics are much more conservative than in many other states right? Perry got 40% of them to vote for him in 2010. Plus just look at how many Texas Republican officeholders are Hispanic. Cruz for instance is likely to to be the next senator from the state. Just because a plurality of the state is likely going to be Hispanic by the next census doesn't mean that it's going to be friendly ground for Democrats.

1. Texas Hispanics are more likely to be Protestant (40-45% of them are) and conservative than any other states, yes but those are still very small portion of the TX Hispanic population. They are actually farily Democratic compared to the GOP leaning Cuban Americans in FL.

2. He only got 40% yes, but Obama and White still got 60-65% of them in 08 and 10 respectively, so they still have a bloc with them in the state, and it's expected to grow not shrink as some of you are thinking.

3. Dewherst is more likely to win and become the next TX Senator than Cruz is.

4. That's too early to tell, but nothing in the near future is suggesting TX will stay red or that the Hispanics in TX will all become red. The Hispanics in TX are of similar stock as the Hispanics in NV and CA, and neither is going to vote differently anytime soon.
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« Reply #15 on: April 19, 2012, 12:31:48 pm »
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But really, does nobody want to project what a democratic win will look like in Texas under short term political climate?

It is rather difficult to make that type of projection for the simple reason that Democrats haven't won a statewide race since 1994 and haven't gotten over 46% in any statewide race since 1998.
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Indy Texas
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« Reply #16 on: April 19, 2012, 03:42:37 pm »
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You do realize Texas Hispanics are much more conservative than in many other states right? Perry got 40% of them to vote for him in 2010. Plus just look at how many Texas Republican officeholders are Hispanic. Cruz for instance is likely to to be the next senator from the state. Just because a plurality of the state is likely going to be Hispanic by the next census doesn't mean that it's going to be friendly ground for Democrats.

Ted Cruz is not going to win the primary. If you want to know how Hispanics do in Republican primaries, an incumbent Hispanic judge with the governor's support way down the ballot lost his primary for a full-term election in 2010 to an Anglo who was an unknown and hadn't even campaigned actively.
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« Reply #17 on: April 19, 2012, 07:22:41 pm »
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It won't flip that soon, sadly. Republicans will learn their lesson about alienating Hispanics this fall. Hispanics will vote ~70% Obama, and the 2016 nominee will at least try to get >35% of them.

Also, the day the Democratic party drops the workers for affluent suburbia is the day I leave the party to form the American Labor Party.
America no longer looks like this:

but more like this:

.

And that's a right shame.
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Comrade Funk
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« Reply #18 on: April 19, 2012, 08:43:47 pm »
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That view is of a very wealthy suburb, based on those houses. We need a party who sticks up for the common man, not a party of wishy-washy neoliberals.
A lot of those "wishy-washy neoliberals" in the suburbs are the common man.
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Snowstalker
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« Reply #19 on: April 19, 2012, 08:45:22 pm »
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Do you know what neoliberalism is?
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Comrade Funk
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« Reply #20 on: April 19, 2012, 08:52:05 pm »
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Do you know what neoliberalism is?
Yes, I do. What I'm saying is that people shouldn't assume suburbanites are neo-liberals and not the "common man". That's far from the truth, especially after the Housing crash.
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We need a public option

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Snowstalker
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« Reply #21 on: April 19, 2012, 08:56:56 pm »
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I wasn't talking about everyone with a house who lives near a city. I'm talking about affluent (Beverly Hills, Palm Beach, etc) suburbia.
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« Reply #22 on: April 19, 2012, 09:31:30 pm »
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I wasn't talking about everyone with a house who lives near a city. I'm talking about affluent (Beverly Hills, Palm Beach, etc) suburbia.

And what's to say they know what neoliberalism is?
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