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Author Topic: when will the secular apocalypse occur?  (Read 1991 times)
tweed
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« on: April 19, 2012, 01:41:08 pm »
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increasingly I am coming to terms with the fact that it may be during my lifetime.  gonna really, really suck.
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« Reply #1 on: April 19, 2012, 02:06:19 pm »
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You might care to elaborate what you mean by "secular apocalypse". I can think of at least two or three things that might mean.
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tweed
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« Reply #2 on: April 19, 2012, 02:27:58 pm »
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probably all 2 or 3 -- nuclear or other vastly destructive war, peak oil/other economic collapse, asteroid or other natural disaster, ...
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« Reply #3 on: April 19, 2012, 02:37:33 pm »
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probably all 2 or 3 -- nuclear or other vastly destructive war, peak oil/other economic collapse, asteroid or other natural disaster, ...

Actually that's only one meaning in terms of what I was thinking - a secular catastrophic event.

As to when, I don't think we can know. A big war would at this point would have to be preceded by another big event, such as mass economic collapse or some kind sudden of resource scarcity, but I just don't see WWIII on the horizon just yet. An asteroid is really the only truly apocalyptic event that I can think of in terms of planetary scale, and we don't know of any that are due to hit us.

Not sure what this has to do with religion or philosophy, though.
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« Reply #4 on: April 19, 2012, 03:11:23 pm »
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obviously, I don't believe in a secular apocalypse...but post-apocalyptic movies have always interested me....Mad Max and Day of the Dead are 2 of my favorites.

though, since becoming a Christian, I don't think I've seen any recent post-apocalyptic movies.
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« Reply #5 on: April 19, 2012, 03:48:46 pm »
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A economic collapse can never really be apocalyptic.  In order for there to be a loss, someone has to profit.  For those lucky feudal lords, it will seem like a pretty good time.
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« Reply #6 on: April 19, 2012, 04:09:42 pm »
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People survive economic collapses, I consider a large-scale nuclear exchange rather unlikely at this point, either Russia or the States will probably scheme up an asteroid deflection system before the next large object has a chance to intercept the Earth, most other natural disasters coming to mind can be weathered even if the casualties are catastrophic, and at the rate we are going right now it wouldn't surprise me if folks were to colonize another planet by the time something of apocalyptic proportions happens here. Maybe I'm being a tad naive and idealistic, but I think we are going to be alright in the long-run as a species provided people can hang in there for a few more centuries without doing several exceptionally, ridiculously stupid things in succession on a monumental scale.
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« Reply #7 on: April 19, 2012, 04:13:57 pm »
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There are two main incidents of note that I am currently following.

First. The Fukushima Dai'ichi nuclear disaster. There is still a large spent fuel pool on the top of the building of reactor 4. Another earthquake or tsunami in the area could tip the pool, releasing a large amount of radiation in the atmosphere. If it is large enough, it could spread across the Pacific and end life in North America. Additionally, all three molten cores are unaccounted for. Re-criticality could lead to a new nuclear explosion that releases massive amounts of radiation into the atmosphere. If it is large enough, it could end life in North America.

Second. The H1N1 flu virus, otherwise known as the "bird flu". There is no known cure, and the death rate is some 60%-70%, higher than that of the bubonic plague. Unlike other contagious influenza, the H1N1 "bird flu" kills middle-aged, strong healthy men just as often as children or the old. If spread around the world, 2-3 billion people could be wiped out. The reason it has not spread is that no one has been able to figure out how to create a human-contagious version that jumps from human to human. However, recently, a scientific team solved this and a paper is forthcoming later this year that will explain how to create such a virus.
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« Reply #8 on: April 19, 2012, 04:16:45 pm »
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Probably after you get hit by a bus tomorrow or discover that you have a congenital heart defect.
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« Reply #9 on: April 19, 2012, 06:29:27 pm »
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First. The Fukushima Dai'ichi nuclear disaster. There is still a large spent fuel pool on the top of the building of reactor 4. Another earthquake or tsunami in the area could tip the pool, releasing a large amount of radiation in the atmosphere. If it is large enough, it could spread across the Pacific and end life in North America. Additionally, all three molten cores are unaccounted for. Re-criticality could lead to a new nuclear explosion that releases massive amounts of radiation into the atmosphere. If it is large enough, it could end life in North America.

Are you pulling your worries out of thin air or do you have an actual source for your concerns?

By the way, there were no nuclear explosions at Fukushima Dai'ichi.  The explosions were caused by the buildup of hydrogen.

While further problems at Fukushima Dai'ichi would be bad, "it could end life in North America" is ridiculous scare mongering worthy of a troll and not your usual level of discourse.
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« Reply #10 on: April 19, 2012, 06:34:06 pm »
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First. The Fukushima Dai'ichi nuclear disaster. There is still a large spent fuel pool on the top of the building of reactor 4. Another earthquake or tsunami in the area could tip the pool, releasing a large amount of radiation in the atmosphere. If it is large enough, it could spread across the Pacific and end life in North America. Additionally, all three molten cores are unaccounted for. Re-criticality could lead to a new nuclear explosion that releases massive amounts of radiation into the atmosphere. If it is large enough, it could end life in North America.

Are you pulling your worries out of thin air or do you have an actual source for your concerns?

By the way, there were no nuclear explosions at Fukushima Dai'ichi.  The explosions were caused by the buildup of hydrogen.

While further problems at Fukushima Dai'ichi would be bad, "it could end life in North America" is ridiculous scare mongering worthy of a troll and not your usual level of discourse.

I'm pretty sure Beet is mocking the fear-mongers of both events there.
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« Reply #11 on: April 19, 2012, 11:28:07 pm »
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First. The Fukushima Dai'ichi nuclear disaster. There is still a large spent fuel pool on the top of the building of reactor 4. Another earthquake or tsunami in the area could tip the pool, releasing a large amount of radiation in the atmosphere. If it is large enough, it could spread across the Pacific and end life in North America. Additionally, all three molten cores are unaccounted for. Re-criticality could lead to a new nuclear explosion that releases massive amounts of radiation into the atmosphere. If it is large enough, it could end life in North America.

Are you pulling your worries out of thin air or do you have an actual source for your concerns?

By the way, there were no nuclear explosions at Fukushima Dai'ichi.  The explosions were caused by the buildup of hydrogen.

While further problems at Fukushima Dai'ichi would be bad, "it could end life in North America" is ridiculous scare mongering worthy of a troll and not your usual level of discourse.

I'm pretty sure Beet is mocking the fear-mongers of both events there.

My source is this comment by the user Horace Boothroyd III on the website Daily Kos. Actually, they posit world wide holocaust as the real danger, so by reducing it down to only North American holocaust, I was decidedly conservative and minimizing. Before you dismiss it as just a single comment from someone on the Internet, 83 people "recommended" this comment, and no one argued with it.
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« Reply #12 on: April 20, 2012, 01:00:08 am »
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I looked carefully, but I found nothing in either the comment you linked to, or in the post it commented on that talked about ending all life in North America, let alone the world.

I won't dispute that the potential for more problems exists if further damage occurs exists, but really, your post was pure fearmongering.  Fukushima Dai'ichi survived the earthquake and the tsunami itself relatively intact.  But the support generators were knocked out by the tsunami and that led to the problems.  But its been over a year since then.  There never was a nuclear explosion and the likelihood of additional hydrogen explosions in the event of is practically nil.  Not only are the fuel elements significantly cooler now (both thermally and radioactively) but the buildings are well ventilated from the previous damage, so the hydrogen has a chance to disperse now before reaching the point of being explosive.

Another serious earthquake has the potential of resetting things a bit and releasing more radioactivity, but not enough to end life as we know it.  It still won't bring the loss of life from radiation up to the level done by the earthquake and tsunami itself.

I'm not surprised that the echo chamber of Daily Kos has practically no room for a sober assessment of nuclear power.

As for the economic viability of nuclear power (mentioned in some of the comments over there), that has suffered a setback, but not because of Fukushima Dai'ichi.  If the reactor designs that are being built now had been at Fukushima Dai'ichi, there would have been no disaster.  The economic problems that afflict nuclear power right now are because of shale gas and the inability to pass any sort of restriction on greenhouse gases.   The cost of nuclear power is much the same as it was before the tsunami hit Japan.  The cost of electricity generated by natural gas has gotten whole lot cheaper the past few years.  Southern Company and SCANA have pushed for their new reactors under the assumption that generating electricity from fossil fuels was likely to get significantly more expensive during the lifetime of those plants.  If we get serious about cutting CO₂ emissions, their gamble will pay off.
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« Reply #13 on: April 20, 2012, 09:20:03 am »
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this thread prompted me to have the family watch The Day After last night for a few laughs.

The film is so anti-Reagan (the original version had an actor portraying Reagan's voice during the national radio address after the attack, with a speech full of stupid platitudes), anti-Defense (it even makes a point to use a destroyed version of the famous Kansas City WWII Memorial as a major prop), and anti-Gun (the funniest part being when Steve Guttenberg hitches a ride and appears very disturbed by the fact the person giving him the ride has a rifle in his gun rack...as if one is going to be worried about a gun rack while trying to escape a nuclear attack.  Ha!  You can't make this stuff up.).

The real-life general on board the EC-135 Looking Glass who looks like a Catholic priest is a dude, though.
« Last Edit: April 20, 2012, 09:28:51 am by consigliere jmfcst »Logged

Do not fight with one another over my banning.  I've enjoyed the time I have spent with all of you, but the time really has come for me to leave.  It is what I want.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z9Y_GLT4_9I

I looked over Jordan, and what did I see?
Coming for to carry me home,
A band of angels coming after me,
Coming for to carry me home.

Swing low, sweet chariot,
Coming for to carry me home.
Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.
jmfcst
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« Reply #14 on: April 20, 2012, 11:50:26 am »
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The Day After also mocks Christianity - young Christian couple having sex before their wedding rehearsal, the girl fighting with her sister over her IUD, arguing with her dad about staying out all night...it even mocks Revelation when it shows the after-war church service and the pastor, who prays to God in King James language, tries to make sense of Christians left on earth to suffer in a post-apocalyptic world.

But, of course, the movie is wrong in every facet of it's point of view:  wrong because Reagan's policies did not lead to war, rather they led us to victory in the cold war within 8 years...wrong because the US can't change the world by unilaterally laying down our arms...wrong because the apocalyptical war will not be fought between capitalism and communism, instead it will be fought due to the struggle over the Holy Land...wrong because Christians will not be here to see that war...wrong because the bible is not wrong in its prophecies.

The movie failed to scare the US, neither its leadership nor its people, into surrendering its military strength or its Christian identity...that would have to wait for Obama.
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Do not fight with one another over my banning.  I've enjoyed the time I have spent with all of you, but the time really has come for me to leave.  It is what I want.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z9Y_GLT4_9I

I looked over Jordan, and what did I see?
Coming for to carry me home,
A band of angels coming after me,
Coming for to carry me home.

Swing low, sweet chariot,
Coming for to carry me home.
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« Reply #15 on: April 20, 2012, 12:20:54 pm »
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I looked carefully, but I found nothing in either the comment you linked to, or in the post it commented on that talked about ending all life in North America, let alone the world.

What does the phrase "world wide holocaust" mean to you? Why don't you give me credit for reducing "world wide" to "North America", hence minimizing and reducing the danger the comment asserted? That makes me more complacent than 83 people. If it was fear mongering, why would I have done that?
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« Reply #16 on: April 20, 2012, 01:29:23 pm »
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I looked carefully, but I found nothing in either the comment you linked to, or in the post it commented on that talked about ending all life in North America, let alone the world.

What does the phrase "world wide holocaust" mean to you? Why don't you give me credit for reducing "world wide" to "North America", hence minimizing and reducing the danger the comment asserted? That makes me more complacent than 83 people. If it was fear mongering, why would I have done that?

Well first off, while "holocaust" is a fearmongering word, it isn't as fearmongering as "ending all life".  Second, as I pointed out already, Daily Kos is an echo chamber.  It is not a credible source for scientific analysis of risk.  While not exclusively populated by them, it does have more than its fair share idealistic idiots who imagine that we can return to a pastoral paradise that never was.
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« Reply #17 on: April 20, 2012, 03:48:17 pm »
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Beet is  certainly making me see all of his posts on this forum in a new (well, sort of) light with his contributions in this thread.
« Last Edit: April 21, 2012, 10:44:14 am by Tussen Droom en Daad »Logged

tweed
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« Reply #18 on: April 20, 2012, 04:07:47 pm »
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Beet is  certainly amking me see all of his posts on this forum in a new (well, sort of) light with his contributions in this thread.

between this and his Melenchon endorsement his Tweedist Quotient has received a significant bump.
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« Reply #19 on: April 20, 2012, 11:14:50 pm »
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Beet is  certainly amking me see all of his posts on this forum in a new (well, sort of) light with his contributions in this thread.
He's always been a giant pessimist.  His thoughts in this thread shouldn't shock you.
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« Reply #20 on: April 25, 2012, 01:20:08 pm »
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Secular Apocalypse 1 Billion yrs and counting===== Sun begins to lose heat and begin turning into a black hole and from its gravitational pull suck all the planets in and thus everything turns to dust and there will be no sign of life ever existed on this planet.
« Last Edit: April 25, 2012, 01:22:27 pm by OC »Logged
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« Reply #21 on: April 25, 2012, 01:38:13 pm »
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Secular Apocalypse 1 Billion yrs and counting===== Sun begins to lose heat and begin turning into a black hole and from its gravitational pull suck all the planets in and thus everything turns to dust and there will be no sign of life ever existed on this planet.

the sun is not massive enough to turn into a black hole
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Do not fight with one another over my banning.  I've enjoyed the time I have spent with all of you, but the time really has come for me to leave.  It is what I want.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z9Y_GLT4_9I

I looked over Jordan, and what did I see?
Coming for to carry me home,
A band of angels coming after me,
Coming for to carry me home.

Swing low, sweet chariot,
Coming for to carry me home.
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« Reply #22 on: April 25, 2012, 02:42:13 pm »
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Secular Apocalypse 1 Billion yrs and counting===== Sun begins to lose heat and begin turning into a black hole and from its gravitational pull suck all the planets in and thus everything turns to dust and there will be no sign of life ever existed on this planet.

the sun is not massive enough to turn into a black hole

True.  Instead, Terra will be swallowed up by Sol when it enters the red giant phase of its stellar lifetime.
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« Reply #23 on: April 25, 2012, 08:52:50 pm »
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Indeed....and the real question is, do humans survive long enough to worry about it?  It will be interesting if inter stellar travel isn't really feasible.  Though giant "earth ships" (like in battlestar galactica) that we just float around the galaxy in I suppose would/could work even if nothing else would.
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« Reply #24 on: April 26, 2012, 04:56:55 am »
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The Day After also mocks Christianity - young Christian couple having sex before their wedding rehearsal, the girl fighting with her sister over her IUD, arguing with her dad about staying out all night...it even mocks Revelation when it shows the after-war church service and the pastor, who prays to God in King James language, tries to make sense of Christians left on earth to suffer in a post-apocalyptic world.

But, of course, the movie is wrong in every facet of it's point of view:  wrong because Reagan's policies did not lead to war, rather they led us to victory in the cold war within 8 years...wrong because the US can't change the world by unilaterally laying down our arms...wrong because the apocalyptical war will not be fought between capitalism and communism, instead it will be fought due to the struggle over the Holy Land...wrong because Christians will not be here to see that war...wrong because the bible is not wrong in its prophecies.

The movie failed to scare the US, neither its leadership nor its people, into surrendering its military strength or its Christian identity...that would have to wait for Obama.

I suggest you try a less politically inclined secular apocalypse movie for starters, you seem to be getting sidetracked. Asteroid movies would be a better candidate imo.
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