PPP: Adding Hispanic VP candidate doesn't help Romney with Hispanics in FL/NM/NV

[ajb]

Obama-Romney numbers among Hispanics:
NV: 66-26
NM: 66-27
FL: 52-44

NV: Obama/Biden vs. Romney/Sandoval: 64-27
NM: Obama/Biden vs. Romney/Martinez: 65-28
FL: Obama/Biden vs. Romney/Rubio: 51-44

Romney's favorability numbers among Hispanic voters:
NV: 52% negative
NM: 61% negative
FL: 43% negative; 58% negative among Puerto Ricans/Dominicans/Mexicans


http://www.projectnewamerica.com/PNA3StateHispanicPollMemo%284-19%29.pdf

[ag]

No surprize. The non-Cuban Hispanics are on track to catch up w/ the blacks as the archreliable Dem electorate. To avoid this happening, Republicans will have to work hard. For the moment, though, they seem to be replicating the Southern Strategy.

[RogueBeaver]

Rubio put it best: Hispanics won't vote for someone simply because their last name ends in a vowel.

[HagridOfTheDeep]

^That's why Romney should pick Martinez.

I don't think it will automatically turn Hispanics to the Republicans, but the right Hispanic would gain some subconcious brownie points. I really believe that. And if the Hispanic veep is strong, it works in Romney's favour amongst all demographics. Martinez is strong.

(ETA--> you also can't deny that this is a huge asset: http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=endscreen&NR=1&v=bwcYba0ynLw. Not too often a major candidate in the general election can speak out in Spanish.)

[pbrower2a]

No surprize. The non-Cuban Hispanics are on track to catch up w/ the blacks as the archreliable Dem electorate. To avoid this happening, Republicans will have to work hard. For the moment, though, they seem to be replicating the Southern Strategy.

I thought that Jews were the second-most reliable part of the Democratic electorate.

The Southern Strategy is failing except in the South, and it is becoming repugnant in much of the rest of the US.  The political enmity that Southern whites feel toward blacks may have lessened little -- but that against Hispanics is really, really weak. 

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Well of course. Who seriously think Hispanics are stupid or shallow enough to be swayed over by blatant tokenism?

[redcommander]

These numbers actually aren't as bad as I thought they would be, but they're still pretty atrocious. Perhaps this will finally end the talk of Rubio as the vp choice.

[Landslide Lyndon]

^That's why Romney should pick Martinez.

Because her last name ends with a consonant?

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Yeah, Romney probably isn't picking a Hispanic.

[pbrower2a]

Well of course. Who seriously think Hispanics are stupid or shallow enough to be swayed over by blatant tokenism?

No more than blacks are impressed by Clarence Thomas. Tokens are bad news for reasons other than failure to relate to their supposed community -- such as that they are usually incompetent, mercenary, doctrinaire, or corrupt. They are the efforts by some to show 'that they aren't racist'. 

From what I have seen, Hispanics are much more astute about American political life than many Anglos realize. So far I see no reason to believe that either Brian Sandoval or Susanna Martinez is a token; it may be more significant that a VP choice does not matter that much for 'carrying' a state or an ethnic group. Republicans need to realize that if the selection of Joe Lieberman as VP had made the difference as planned we would have spoken of President Al Gore.

The fault lies with the top of the ticket.  I see the 2012 Presidential election at this stage looking like that of late in the campaign season of 2008 except that Mitt Romney has more time. But at this time in 2008 John McCain seemed to have an edge over Barack Obama.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

The reason why Rubio might (stress might) be able to gain more hispanic votes has nothing to do with his race. It is only because a lot of people think he can utilize his charisma to articulate a theme or a campaign of opportunity and embracing the American Dream that will appeal to large numbers of Hispanics. Rubio on his own could do far better with hispanics then as VP for someone else.

Plus VP doesn't mean all that much anyway and if someone thinks they can pick a candidate with the intent of taking advantage of ID politics they are mistaken.

[HagridOfTheDeep]

The reason why Rubio might (stress might) be able to gain more hispanic votes has nothing to do with his race. It is only because a lot of people think he can utilize his charisma to articulate a theme or a campaign of opportunity and embracing the American Dream that will appeal to large numbers of Hispanics. Rubio on his own could do far better with hispanics then as VP for someone else.

Plus VP doesn't mean all that much anyway and if someone thinks they can pick a candidate with the intent of taking advantage of ID politics they are mistaken.

It's a bit like the Obama phenomenon, right? Being black, on its own, was not a good enough reason for people to vote for Obama. But it did excite people and unlock the demographic for some gains--Obama just had to turn the key. He had the charisma to do it.

Rubio or Martinez unlocks the potential for Romney to make gains with Hispanics, but he still needs to actually appeal to them to win.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Biden doesn't transpose his qualities onto Obama.

Whatever Romney achieves with Hispanics, he does on his own.


In terms of a front man, having someone "From the community" might get you a foot in the door for the sales pitch. But unless it is really good, their next step is too call 911.