Rasmussen MO poll: Romney leads Obama

[Ben Romney]

PRESIDENT – MISSOURI (Rasmussen)
Mitt Romney (R) 48%
Barack Obama (D-inc) 45%


http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2012/election_2012_presidential_election/missouri/election_2012_missouri_president

[Frozen Sky Ever Why]

PRESIDENT – MISSOURI (Rasmussen)
Mitt Romney (R) 48%
Barack Obama (D-inc) 45%


http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2012/election_2012_presidential_election/missouri/election_2012_missouri_president

Poll is crap, Rasmussen is a republican organization, Obama's going to win all 50 states, ect.

Anyway, this is actually an improvement for Obama in MO, which is odd since Romney is getting a bounce.

[Joe Republic]

Poll is crap, Rasmussen is a republican organization, Obama's going to win all 50 states, ect.

The second of those statements is true, of course.  But this poll is still likely accurate.  Obama probably won't carry Missouri once again, but then he doesn't really need to, does he?  He didn't before, when he won 365 electoral votes.

[Lief 🗽]

Either Rasmussen's state polls are totally wrong or its national polls are totally wrong or Romney is winning 90% of the vote in the all the states Rasmussen hasn't done individual polls for.

[memphis]

I still would like to know how all these state polls point to a result similar to 2008, but the national numbers from Rasmussen and Gallup show a narrow Romney lead. Something doesn't add up. And Lief beat me to it by five seconds.

[ajb]

Either Rasmussen's state polls are totally wrong or its national polls are totally wrong or Romney is winning 90% of the vote in the all the states Rasmussen hasn't done individual polls for.

I've read that he uses different methodologies for state and for national polls. Does anyone know more about that? If true, then there's nothing particularly weird about the national and state results being inconsistent with each other.

[Chaddyr23]

Damn that state and it's ex weathervane status.

[marvelrobbins]

Ras has gone from a 8 point Romney lead to a 3 point Romney lead In Missouri when RAS
has Romney leading nationly.

Obama doesn't need Missouri to win.If It Is competive In Missouri Romney Is In trouble.

[pbrower2a]

PRESIDENT – MISSOURI (Rasmussen)
Mitt Romney (R) 48%
Barack Obama (D-inc) 45%


http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2012/election_2012_presidential_election/missouri/election_2012_missouri_president

Did you realize that it is highly likely that President Obama will win only two of the eight states bordering Missouri? Of course six of the states that surround Missouri are Nebraska, Kansas, Oklahoma, Arkansas, Tennessee, and Kentucky.  Of course some of those state boundaries are very short.  One of the electoral votes of Nebraska is likely to be in play.

...   

President Obama wins this time, as in 2008, if Missouri is at all close.

[Fuzzybigfoot]

Does anyone have the breakdown for this poll? 

[Queen Mum Inks.LWC]

Database entry: https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2012/polls.php?action=indpoll&id=2920120417016

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

The Show Me state already showed us that it isn't a bellwether any more. No one is claiming that Obama will win by double digits because he's leading by that much in the former bellwethers of Delaware and New Mexico.

[pbrower2a]

The Show Me state already showed us that it isn't a bellwether any more. No one is claiming that Obama will win by double digits because he's leading by that much in the former bellwethers of Delaware and New Mexico.

Ohio is.  It was extremely close to the national average in 2004 and very close in 2000 and 2008.  It hasn't voted "wrong" since 1960 and was the deciding state in the close 1976 and 2004 elections and could have been in 2000. Indeed it hasn't voted 'wrong' since 1896 except for 1960.

Missouri is geographically about half Iowa and half Arkansas. Appalachian-Ozark  America used to go reliably D except in all but Republican blowouts; it went for Bill Clinton twice. Tellingly, West Virginia still voted for Jimmy Carter in the electoral disaster of 1980 for Democrats. But that is apparently over. The Republicans have won Ozark and Appalachian America indefinitely based on appeals to Protestant fundamentalists on "cultural" issues. Missouri goes to President Obama as the holder of the 370th to 390th electoral vote with Arizona and Indiana. Republicans really have to much up to lose Missouri.