The Death of a Strategist: 1988 and Beyond Altered.
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  The Death of a Strategist: 1988 and Beyond Altered.
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Jerseyrules
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« Reply #100 on: July 25, 2012, 08:13:33 PM »

I agree, but I want Wilson to win at some point, maybe 04
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GLPman
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« Reply #101 on: July 26, 2012, 08:00:07 PM »

McCain or Alexander. Wilson or Heinz would be a waste.
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retromike22
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« Reply #102 on: July 27, 2012, 11:19:58 PM »

July 10, 1992: Bob Dole Chooses John McCain as his Vice Presidential Pick!

With just a week until the Republican convention, Senator Bob Dole has selected Arizona Senator John McCain as his Vice Presidential pick. John McCain, 56, is in his first term as a Senator but has been in the public spotlight for decades, most notably as a prisoner of war during the Vietnam War. He is seen as a reliably conservative pick that brought several Republicans to tears in his 1988 convention speech. In addition, his McCain-Kerry campaign finance reform was widely supported by the public who were weary of the current perceived climate of corruption in American politics.

My first choice for Dole’s VP pick was going to be McCain, but for a while the choice was Pennsylvania Senator John Heinz. But when I did research I found out that Heinz was pro-choice, along with Pete Wilson and a bunch of other Republicans back then (oh how times have changed). So I reverted back to McCain. Alexander wasn't as much of a "rising star" and popular pick with Republicans the way McCain was. So there you have it, 1992 will be Dukakis/Gephardt vs Dole/McCain. It'll take a while to write out the details, but thanks for the support so far. Sneak peek: Between now and November, there will be votes on three major bills: Middle class tax cuts, the expansion of Medicare to all Americans under age 18, and NAFTA.
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Atlas Has Shrugged
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« Reply #103 on: July 28, 2012, 12:35:02 AM »

Awesome! I await the battles over medicare expansion, and how the election will turn out. Do you intend to take this all the way up to 2012? Smiley
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retromike22
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« Reply #104 on: July 28, 2012, 12:48:49 AM »

Awesome! I await the battles over medicare expansion, and how the election will turn out. Do you intend to take this all the way up to 2012? Smiley

I actually have it drafted up until 2004 so far, hopefully I can take it to 2012. The hardest part is that once you change the political climate in senate elections or governor elections, it factors later on because politicians who we consider famous in real life are not in this timeline, or vice versa. For example, in my timeline's 1990 the Republican Clayton Williams beat Ann Richards in the Texas Governor's election because it was a Republican favored year due to a President Dukakis. Which means in 1994 Williams is running for reelection... which means George Bush is not elected in 1994 as Governor of Texas. It's stuff like that's interesting, but I have to keep track of it all.
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« Reply #105 on: July 28, 2012, 01:03:36 AM »

Awesome! I await the battles over medicare expansion, and how the election will turn out. Do you intend to take this all the way up to 2012? Smiley

I actually have it drafted up until 2004 so far, hopefully I can take it to 2012. The hardest part is that once you change the political climate in senate elections or governor elections, it factors later on because politicians who we consider famous in real life are not in this timeline, or vice versa. For example, in my timeline's 1990 the Republican Clayton Williams beat Ann Richards in the Texas Governor's election because it was a Republican favored year due to a President Dukakis. Which means in 1994 Williams is running for reelection... which means George Bush is not elected in 1994 as Governor of Texas. It's stuff like that's interesting, but I have to keep track of it all.
I have that problem in my timelines too. Thats why I write out every single Gubernatorial and Senate race, which (at least so far) has taken up 50% of my timeline Tongue
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« Reply #106 on: July 28, 2012, 08:45:30 AM »


Whoa! I didn't know a picture of the two even existed! Let alone one that seems to fit the time period perfectly (in terms of how different McCain loooks).
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retromike22
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« Reply #107 on: August 04, 2012, 12:01:32 AM »

July 14, 1992: Goldwater Says Gay Rights are Conservative.
When interviewed at the Republican National Convention, former Presidential candidate Barry Goldwater raised some eyebrows when he stated that gay rights are inherently conservative, and the Republican Party should not oppose them. "The big thing is to make this country, along with every other country in the world with a few exceptions, quit discriminating against people just because they're gay," Goldwater asserted. "You don't have to agree with it, but they have a constitutional right to be gay. And that's what brings me into it."

The above was taken verbatim from a real life Barry Goldwater quote.

July 16, 1992: Senator Dole Accepts Republican Nomination.

Senator Bob Dole has accepted the nomination of the Republican Party for President. He touched on several issues, weaving his autobiography with his plans for the Presidency. He began his life story by acknowledging his age, 69, which would make him the second oldest person to be elected if he is this November.

“Now I know that in some quarters I may not -- may be expected to run from this, the truth of this, but I was born in 1923, and facts are better than dreams and good presidents and good candidates don't run from the truth.”

He hinted that this made him a more moral person to hold the Presidency, since it was not his goal until later in life. Some columnists read into this as a sign that Dole may not run for a second term if elected.

“I do not need the presidency to make or refresh my soul. That false hope I will gladly leave to others. For greatness lies not in what office you hold, but on how honest you are in how you face adversity and in your willingness to stand fast in hard places. Age has its advantages.”

Next, he dismissed those who were wary of his legislative battles with the President and also those who felt he was not conservative enough.

“To those who believe that I am too combative, I say if I am combative, it is for love of country. It is to uphold a standard that I was I was born and bred to defend. And to those who believe that I live and breathe compromise, I say that in politics honorable compromise is no sin. It is what protects us from absolutism and intolerance.”

On taxes, he clearly stated the differences between himself and the President.

“The President and his party brought us the biggest tax increase in the history of America. And we are the party of lower taxes -- we are the party of lower taxes and greater opportunity.”

When discussing social security, he surprisingly acknowledged the role of government in helping others, if only in the time of need. This fragment was also disappointing to many conservative commentators.

“And I have learned in my own life, from my own experience that not every man, woman or child can make it on their own. And that in time of need, the bridge between failure and success can be the government itself. And given all that I have experienced, I shall always remember those in need. That is why I helped to save Social Security in 1983 and that is why I will be, I will be the president who preserves and strengthens and protects Medicare for America's senior citizens.”

In an attempt to broaden his electoral base, Dole clearly stated that the Republican Party is a voice of many and not the few.

“The Republican Party is broad and inclusive. It represents many streams of opinion and many points of view. But if there's anyone who has mistakenly attached themselves to our party in the belief that we are not open to citizens of every race and religion, then let me remind you, tonight this hall belongs to the Party of Lincoln. And the exits which are clearly marked are for you to walk out of as I stand this ground without compromise.”

On crime, Senator Dole proposed a tough on crime stance, combined with keeping guns away from criminals. It was unclear whether Dole was proposing new gun control laws.

“We are a nation paralyzed by crime. And it's time to end that in America. And to do so, I mean to attack the root cause of crime -- criminals, criminals, violent criminals. And as our many and voracious criminals go to bed tonight, at say, 6:00 in the morning, they had better pray that I lose this election because if I win, the lives of violent criminals are going to be hell. During the Reagan administration -- during the Reagan administration we abolished parole at the federal level. In the Dole administration we will work with the nation's governors to abolish parole for violent criminals all across America. And with my national instant check initiative, we will keep all guns out of the hands of criminals.”

Finally, on foreign policy, Dole blasted the President for reducing the size of the military following the end of the Cold War, and promised quick action if terrorists attacked Americans.

“It must be said because of misguided priorities there have been massive cuts in funding for our national security. I believe President Dukakis has failed to adequately provide for our defense. And for whatever reason the neglect, it is irresponsible. I ask that you consider these crystal-clear differences. He believes that it is acceptable to ask our military forces to more with less. I do not.
And on my first day in office, I will put terrorists on notice. If you harm one American, you harm all Americans. And America will pursue you to the ends of the earth. In short, don't mess with us if you're not prepared to suffer the consequences.”

At the conclusion of his speech, Dole gave an optimistic tone, attempting to ask Americans to change Washington at a time when so many feel it’s on the wrong path.

“Optimism is in our blood. I know this as few others can. There once was a time when I doubted the future. But I have learned as many of you have learned that obstacles can be overcome. And I have unlimited confidence in the wisdom of our people and the future of our country. Tonight, I stand before you tested by adversity, made sensitive by hardship, a fighter by principle, and the most optimistic man in America. My life is proof that America is a land without limits. And with my feet on the ground and my heart filled with hope, I put my faith in you and in the God who loves us all. For I am convinced that America's best days are yet to come. May God bless you. And may God bless America. Thank you very much.”

Dole’s speech won great reviews among the mainstream media, in that he successful laid out the basis for why he should be President and what he would do. Within conservative circles, the response was at best lukewarm. Former Presidential candidate Phil Gramm stated, “Most of that speech didn’t sound like it came from a conservative at all.”

Note: The previous quotes from Dole’s speech were not created by me. They are actual quotes from his real life 1996 convention speech. The only thing I changed was a reference to President Clinton into a reference to President Dukakis.

July 20, 1992: Dole Leads Dukakis by Double Digits.
After his selection of John McCain as his running mate and the conclusion of the Republican convention, Senator Bob Dole leads the President by 12 points.

Dole 54
Dukakis 42
Undecided 8
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« Reply #108 on: August 04, 2012, 08:29:10 AM »

Go Dole!
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NHI
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« Reply #109 on: August 04, 2012, 11:21:50 AM »

Go Dole!!
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mondale84
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« Reply #110 on: August 04, 2012, 05:02:56 PM »

Come on Duke, you can do it!
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retromike22
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« Reply #111 on: August 05, 2012, 12:52:12 AM »
« Edited: August 05, 2012, 12:54:06 AM by retromike22 »

July 24, 1992: Middle Class Tax Cuts Pass House and Senate, Albeit With Conservative Grumbling.
The tax cuts on the middle class have passed both the House and the Senate, with enough conservative Democrats crossing over to ensure its passage. The bill is popular with the American people by a large margin, and there is heavy pressure by some Democrats for the President to sign the bill. Behind the scenes, Minority Senate Leader Alan Simpson, Minority Senate Whip Lincoln Chafee, Minority Leader Robert Michel, and Minority Whip Dick Cheney all decided against introducing a bill that would include both middle and upper class tax cuts. They decided that by having a bill that would solely contain tax cuts for the middle class, they would outflank the President by claiming that the Republican Party was the true party of the middle class. Although most Republican Senators strongly supported this plan, as they recognized that many Democrats would cross over and ensure its passage, this plan had a slim majority of support within the Republican House caucus. Many Republican House members were publicly voicing their disapproval with the plan, saying that they could have had large upper class tax cuts attached to the bill as well. But Minority Senate Leader Alan Simpson responded that it was not wise to reduce upper level taxes at a level that some House Republicans wanted, since it would increase the chances of a budget deficit, which was “not a conservative position at all.” The strongest opposition came from Georgia Congressman Newt Gingrich, who if the Republican achieves a majority this November, is rumored to run for House Majority Whip.

August 5, 1992: Dukakis Reluctantly Signs Middle Class Tax Cuts, Says That He is a “Middle Class President.”
President Dukakis reversed his early position on the middle class tax cuts, citing a need to give middle class Americans. It is clear that he was heavily pressured to do so by his party and even members of his own campaign team, following the last poll numbers that had the President down by double digits. Privately, he is outraged that he was outflanked by Congress, and is determined to double down on his political positions. The Republican Leaders in Congress are ecstatic that they were able to pressure the President to sign this law, while the Democratic Leaders are

August 10, 1992: Dukakis Campaign Will Challenge Dole’s Capability Instead of His Positions.
The Dukakis campaign, has decided against painting Bob Dole as a conservative extremist, since very few Americans think of him as a conservative anyway. Instead, they plan to frame Bob Dole as someone who does not have the sufficient capability to be President, and that President Dukakis has been a good President. Most polls show support for a strong majority of the President’s plans, including the once controversial health care law. But on a personal level, the President’s favorability is low. In addition, the Democratic Party has a historically low approval rating. Early ads are citing the President’s favorable policies and plans, with many neglecting to include that he is a Democrat.

August 19, 1992: Casey Endorses Dukakis, Echoes of Carter and Kennedy.

Former presidential candidate Bob Casey gave his speech at the convention today, endorsing the President but only occasionally mentioning him in his speech. It was fairly praised speech that was remarkably similar to Dole’s, in that it mentioned the need for his party to accept a wide range of views and compromise. There seemed to be mild hints throughout the speech that the President should be less liberal and willing to work with Congress as opposed to challenging it.

August 20, 1992: President Dukakis Accepts Nomination.
President Dukakis accepted the nomination of his party for a second term as President, vowing to fight on for Americans and asking them to continue his party’s efforts to help them. The President spoke of a list of his accomplishments, reminding Americans that he had avoided a war in Panama and Iraq, and that health care was finally in the reach of all Americans through a health insurance mandate. The latter third of his speech was devoted to the future, and his commitment to the poor and working class. His speech was well received by pundits, in that the President clearly stated his accomplishments, his positions, and his goals.

August 24, 1992: Dukakis Gains on Dole.
In the first poll after the Democratic convention, the President has lowered the gap between himself and Dole to 6 points.

Dole/McCain 50
Dukakis/Gephardt 44
Undecided 6

August 28, 1992: Dole Shows Discomfort With Abortion Issue.
In a surprising interview that revealed his discomfort with social issues, Senator Dole gave ambiguous answers over his personal position on abortion. He also stated that he would allow abortions in cases of rape, incest or when the life of the woman is in danger.

When asked if he believed abortion is murder, Dole said it is immoral and wrong. Asked again if he believes it is murder, Dole said: "I don't know. It's obviously taking a life." He said he does not believe women have a constitutional right to abortion, though he would make three exceptions, for women who have been raped, are victims of incest or whose lives are in danger. When asked why he would allow exceptions for rape incest if he believes abortion is the taking of a life, Dole said, "That's true. But I think also, as true as that may be, there's also political realities."

The previous quote is from a real life 1996 Bob Dole interview.
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Jerseyrules
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« Reply #112 on: August 05, 2012, 05:11:52 PM »

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retromike22
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« Reply #113 on: August 11, 2012, 11:20:30 PM »

September 1, 1992: Democrats and Republicans Negotiate Expansion of Medicare and NAFTA.
Congressional Democrats and Republicans have begun to negotiate terms of the last two major bills to be decided on before the November election. The first is the expansion of Medicare to all Americans under 18, a progressive dream for decades, is unlikely to win passage in the Congress due to its lack of enough support by moderates. Some moderate Democrats have proposed a bill which would expand Medicare to those under 18, but only to those who are below a certain income level. The President is opposed to this plan, stating that “All young Americans need Medicare, and we can’t afford to not cover them.” The second bill is NAFTA, the North American Free Trade Agreement. This bill is notable in that it has strong support with moderates, but is opposed by most liberals for its possible effects on manufacturing jobs and some conservatives who see it as a loss of American sovereignty. President Dukakis has claimed that he will veto the bill if it is brought to his desk, and it is possible that Democrats may attempt to override his veto. Because the Democrats control both houses of Congress, they have a strong effect on which specific legislation can be voted on, which gives that party and advantage. But because of the narrow majority, in addition to the strong number of Democratic moderates, Democratic conservatives, and even the moderate Republicans, it is difficult to see what the bills will exactly contain, if they will be voted on, and if they even will pass Congress. The President is steadfast in his positions, and in the first series of negotiations, he was not invited to attend.

September 6, 1992: Expansion of Medicare to be voted on Tomorrow.
The leaders in Congress have agreed to vote on the expansion of Medicare tomorrow, introducing a bill which is exactly like the President’s proposal, which many believe was done to prove that the President’s plan does not have enough approval in Congress.

September 7, 1992: Medicare Expansion Fails.

The vote to expand Medicare failed in the House today, with many Democrats feeling ambivalent about its failure to pass. “The President declined to compromise, and this is what happens” House Speaker Tom Foley says. Tomorrow an alternative proposal, which expands Medicare to those below a certain income, will be introduced in the House. President Dukakis is opposed to this new plan, but it is unlikely that he will veto it.

September 8, 1992: Second Medicare Expansion Fails.
The Second Medicare expansion has failed to pass the House, although it did receive more votes than its predecessor. Congressional Democrats say they do not plan to introduce any further legislation on the subject, and the President has publically blasted Congress for this.

September 10, 1992: Dole Leads Dukakis, Electoral Map Preview.
Dole 52
Dukakis 43
Undecided 5

In the current electoral map, there is a strong advantage for Dole. He has strong support in the South and Plains states, which was expected, but has also gained in Appalachia and the Midwest. Dukakis support is based in the northeast, upper Midwest, and Pacific Northwest. The map is clearly not in Dukakis’ favor, as he must win many of the toss up states to win election, and he absolutely has to win California.


Currently, with Strong and Lean Dole states, there are 236 electoral votes.
With Strong and Lean Dukakis states, there are 145 electoral votes.
And toss up states are 157 electoral votes.
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« Reply #114 on: August 11, 2012, 11:36:21 PM »

Great update! Dukakis is in a bind, and if he wins, he will have to govern more moderately. I have really enjoyed the timeline, I can't wait for the election Smiley
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GLPman
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« Reply #115 on: August 11, 2012, 11:45:00 PM »

Looks like Dole is gonna win it, unless you have some surprises up your sleeve.
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retromike22
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« Reply #116 on: August 12, 2012, 10:19:41 PM »

September 18, 1992: NAFTA Passes Congress.
The North American Free Trade Agreement has passed Congress. Polls on NAFTA have shown a that a large number of Americans have yet to have an opinion on the bill, although those on the left and right are more likely to be opposed to it than moderates.
In favor: 30
Opposed: 25
Undecided: 45

September 19, 1992: President Dukakis Vetoes NAFTA, Will Congress Override?

The President has decided to veto the NAFTA bill, stating that he will not risk losing American jobs as a result of this bill. Already, television ads have the President “standing up” for American jobs, and with the latest good news that the unemployment has decreased, this looks like a good day for the President.

In the Democratically-controlled Congress, they are in a bind. The President of their party has clearly stated that he is opposed to this bill. The opinion of the Congress is low, and if moderate Democrats follow the President, many will claim that they are following the President’s lead and not that of their constituents. Will enough Democrats in Congress ignore their constituents and follow the President? Or will they ignore the President and override his veto?

September 20, 1992: Congress Overrides NAFTA Veto.
Congress has overridden the NAFTA veto. Combined with the failure of his Medicare expansion to pass Congress, the President is unable to control the agenda. He is distancing himself from Congress, even blasting them in some speeches. Congressional Democrats are even running against the President in some ads, stating that they “took a stand” against him. It is clear that there are two campaigns running. The President is running for reelection against Bob Dole, and the Democrats and Republicans in Congress are running against the President’s ineffectiveness.
The effect of this is not a lowering of Dukakis’ support in the polls, but rather he is becoming politically irrelevant. Some Democrats have privately said to others that they are privately considering voting for Bob Dole.

In real life, the House of Representatives approved NAFTA on November 17, 1993, 234-200. The agreement's supporters included 132 Republicans and 102 Democrats. NAFTA passed the Senate 61-38. But because my timeline’s 1992 House and Senate makeup is less liberal than real life’s 1993, Congress was able to override the Dukakis veto.


September 30, 1992: Odds of Republicans Gaining House Strong, but Senate slim.
With the Democrats in the House controlling 232 seats, and the Republicans have 203, the Republicans only need 15 seats to reach the majority of 218. Most analysts believe that this is possible and has an 80% of happening.

In the Senate however, the Democrats control 54 seats, the Republicans control 45, and Senator David Duke is the lone Independent. Complicated the situation is Senator Duke, who both parties have claimed that they will not caucus with him in order to secure a Senate majority. So because a tie is unlikely because of this, whichever party has 50 votes will have control of the Senate. Therefore, the Republicans need to gain 5 seats in order to gain control. Analysts believe that the Republicans have only a 20% chance of gaining control.

Dem 54
Gop 45
Ind 1

October 11, 1992: First Presidential Debate Poll: Dukakis 45 Dole 35 Undecided 20.
In the first Presidential debate, the President clearly laid out his accomplishments and his plans, hoping that their popularity would transfer over to a vote for him. In contrast, Dole attempted to link the President and Congress together, stating that the Democratic Party has lost the respect of the people because of its lax attitude on corruption. Although Dole attempted to criticize the President, when asked about his own plan in detail, his answers were at times vague and repetitive. In a small gaffe, Dole asked the interviewer to repeat a question, which left many viewers suspicious about handling the Presidency at his age.

October 13, 1992: Vice Presidential Debate Poll: McCain 55 Gephardt 25 Undecided 20.
Senator McCain was quite effective in his debate with Vice President Gephardt, promising that with a President Dole, corruption will end and progress will return. In addition, he stated that the President’s reduction in defense spending left the United States vulnerable to a foreign attack. In response, the Vice President in a widely panned statement against the former prisoner of war stated that “John McCain does not understand how our military works.” Senator McCain responded with a brief but eloquent retelling of his history in the military, and how he viewed any attack on any veteran as a serious insult. It was very clear in this debate that they personally do not get along.

October 14, 1992: Dukakis Gains Support after Debate.
Following his first debate in which he was judged to perform rather well, Dukakis has gained support in the latest poll and is now six points behind Dole, as compared with nine points last month.

Dole 51
Dukakis 45
Undecided 4

October 15, 1992: Second Presidential Debate Poll: Dukakis 45 Dole 40 Undecided 15.
In his second debate, Dole was more at ease explaining his own plans and was widely considered to perform evenly with the President.

October 19, 1992: Third President Debate Poll: Dole 45 Dukakis 40 Undecided 15.
In the last debate, Bob Dole had the slight advantage with viewers, as he was able to link the President’s ineffectiveness with the corruption of the Democrats. Dukakis, in contrast, appeared to repeat many of the same lines he spoke in the second debate.

October 25, 1992: After Final Debates, Dukakis Closing In on Dole.
After the last debates, the President has finally caught up with Dole, only 4 points behind now.
Dole 50
Dukakis 46
Undecided 4

November 1, 1992: Final Electoral Map Polls:
The final set of polling shows an uphill battle for Dukakis, but less so since he finally has California moved from toss up to lean Dukakis. The race is closer than it was several months ago, mainly due to the improving economy and Dole’s occasional lackluster performance in the debates.
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« Reply #117 on: August 12, 2012, 10:32:55 PM »

In the words of a great bumper sticker, "Bob Dole. President."

Great round of updates in all, though I'm kinda surprised by the NAFTA veto (though I know little of Dukakis, so). Should Dole win, it'd be nice to see him take MI or PA.
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« Reply #118 on: August 12, 2012, 10:53:25 PM »

I am excited for this election, I have a feeling it will be nailbittingly close Smiley
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« Reply #119 on: August 13, 2012, 10:46:19 AM »

The election definitely looks like it will be close. I hope Dole can pull out a victory over the Duke.
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« Reply #120 on: August 13, 2012, 10:26:05 PM »

Dole looks favored. Dukakis can only lose one or two swing states. Florida would give him some leeway but that seems to be quite a bit of a stretch, as I think the older voters will flock to Dole/McCain because of the military ethos they command.

Great timeline!
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retromike22
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« Reply #121 on: August 13, 2012, 10:37:54 PM »

Thanks for the support guys. I'm going to attempt to do a fake election program tomorrow (8/14) at 7pm Pacific Time. It'll go by fast but I think it'll be more entertaining to see it live and you refreshing your page, then just having the next post say "Blank Wins!"
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« Reply #122 on: August 13, 2012, 10:49:49 PM »

Sounds good Smiley
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« Reply #123 on: August 14, 2012, 07:31:53 AM »

Spoiler - Blank wins Sad I always felt we had better candidates than Senator Blank of Ambiguous State
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retromike22
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« Reply #124 on: August 14, 2012, 09:04:14 PM »

6:30pm November 3, 1992
ELECTION 1992“Hello and welcome to Election 1992 coverage. I’ll be your host, Retro Mike, here with Patty Flatbottom and together we will see if President Dukakis wins reelection, or if our next President will be Bob Dole.”
“The first polls to close were an hour ago, but were only part of Indiana and Kentucky. Now all of Indiana and Kentucky will have ceased to vote in 30 minutes, along with Virginia, Vermont, South Carolina, and Georgia.”
“Please note that a majority of Florida will have stopped voting, but up in the panhandle they won’t, so Florida will not be in until later.”
“Here is our election map, a red state will indicate a vote for Dukakis, and a blue will be for Dole. States that are too close to call will be green, and states that are still voting will be gray.”
“Please remember to stay tuned (refresh your page) until midnight, (midnight timeline time) as we will wrap up and have full results of today’s elections, Including which party will control the House and the Senate.”
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