The next Republican President is most likely to be first elected in what year?

[Nichlemn]

Note that I am not asking "Is it more likely the Republicans win in 2012 or 2016?" Republicans can be the underdogs in 2012 and the favourites in 2016, but still more likely to elect their next President in 2012. For instance, if you think Romney is 40% to win but the GOP is 60% to win in 2016 if Obama wins, the probability that the next GOP President is elected in 2016 is (1-0.4)*0.6 = 0.36, smaller than Romney's chances.

Basically the options are:

1) Republicans win in 2012.
2) Democrats win in 2012, but Republicans win in 2016.
3) Democrats win in 2012 and 2016, but the Republicans aren't doomed.
4) Democrats win in 2012 and 2016, but the Republicans are doomed.

You can assign probabilities as well if you like.

[Big Wiggly Style]

Most likely? 2016. Ultimately, Obama will likely win reelection. There's no way Republicans lose 2016, though. The last time a party won three consecutive terms as President was in the 80's with HW, who only got 1 term and faced a weak opponent in Dukakis.

[Mr. Morden]

Most likely? 2016. Ultimately, Obama will likely win reelection. There's no way Republicans lose 2016, though. The last time a party won three consecutive terms as President was in the 80's with HW, who only got 1 term and faced a weak opponent in Dukakis.

The 1960, 1968, 1976, and 2000 elections were all so close that the slightest change in circumstances might have tipped the election the other way.  So there really isn't much evidence to suggest that the challenger party should be considered that much of a favorite when they're running against a party that's been in office for two terms.

[Big Wiggly Style]

Still, I don't think Hillary will run in 2016, and even if she does, depending on the circumstances, she may not win.

[HagridOfTheDeep]

President-Elect Susana Martinez, 2020. Bank on it. The 2nd female president. What a neat election that will be.

[A dog on every car, a car in every elevator]

You figured it out yourself.  The most likely year for it to happen is 12 and most likely the year it happens is not 12.  I'll guess the number of years before it happens is 12.