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|-+  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
| |-+  Election What-ifs? (Moderator: dallasfan65)
| | |-+  The Kerry Problem
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Question: What prospective timeline would you like to see?
2008: Primary Challenge   -11 (50%)
2008: Condi Runs   -9 (40.9%)
1996: Clinton's 2nd Try   -2 (9.1%)
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Total Voters: 22

Author Topic: The Kerry Problem  (Read 5727 times)
NHI
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« on: April 21, 2012, 08:26:26 am »
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I would like people's input on a potential timeline I am thinking about. I've realized it's difficult to construct a timeline that takes place four-five from now, so I'm looking to do something in the past. Of the choices I've listed please select your choice, and if you feel so inclined please leave your comments as well.

Thank you.


Option 1: Kerry wins Ohio, thus the Presidency in 2004, despite losing the popular to Pres. Bush. Kerry's presidency is a tumultuous one; as the economy weakens and the war in Afghanistan rages on Kerry looks to face a tough reelection and faces a primary challenge in the 2008 Presidential Primary. Who the candidate is yet to be determined.

Option 3: George H.W. Bush narrowly wins reelection in 1992, thus cementing Republican Rule for 16 years. In 1996 Bill Clinton announces his intentions to run again, but faces a strong opposition from the Democratic Base.
« Last Edit: April 24, 2012, 10:38:50 pm by NHI »Logged
Del Tachi
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« Reply #1 on: April 21, 2012, 08:52:06 am »
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A McCain wins in 2008 TL would be interesting.

Can we get back-story on options 1 and 3?
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NHI
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« Reply #2 on: April 21, 2012, 09:14:38 am »
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Option 1: Kerry wins Ohio, thus the Presidency in 2004, despite losing the popular to Pres. Bush. Kerry's presidency is a tumultuous one; as the economy weakens and the war in Afghanistan rages on Kerry looks to face a tough reelection and faces a primary challenge in the 2008 Presidential Primary. Who the candidate is yet to be determined.

Option 3: George H.W. Bush narrowly wins reelection in 1992, thus cementing Republican Rule for 16 years. In 1996 Bill Clinton announces his intentions to run again, but faces a strong opposition from the Democratic Base.

In regards to a McCain timeline, would you still like to see Palin as Vice President, or another option?
« Last Edit: April 21, 2012, 09:18:28 am by NHI »Logged
Pingvin
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« Reply #3 on: April 21, 2012, 09:20:44 am »
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Option 1.
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NHI
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« Reply #4 on: April 23, 2012, 12:58:44 pm »
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The choice is going to be option 1: Kerry's Primary Challenge in 2008. Timeline coming soon.
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clarence
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« Reply #5 on: April 23, 2012, 01:06:29 pm »
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I look forward to reading this NHI-
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politicus
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« Reply #6 on: April 23, 2012, 01:46:20 pm »
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The choice is going to be option 1: Kerry's Primary Challenge in 2008. Timeline coming soon.
Ok, I was hoping for a Condi Rice run. That would have been interesting.
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Cathcon
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« Reply #7 on: April 23, 2012, 01:49:15 pm »
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I look forward to reading this NHI-
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Pingvin
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« Reply #8 on: April 23, 2012, 01:58:06 pm »
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GLPman
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« Reply #9 on: April 23, 2012, 01:59:34 pm »
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Definitely option 1. I look forward to reading it!
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NHI
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« Reply #10 on: April 23, 2012, 04:04:38 pm »
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The choice is going to be option 1: Kerry's Primary Challenge in 2008. Timeline coming soon.
Ok, I was hoping for a Condi Rice run. That would have been interesting.
Maybe a future timeline...
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NHI
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« Reply #11 on: April 24, 2012, 10:36:01 pm »
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Kerry Elected President!


3:40 AM

We can now make a projection for the Presidency. We are calling the state of Ohio for Sen. John Kerry. He will be the 44th President of The United States.

D: 49.99%
R: 49.63%

D: 2,876,176
R: 2,859,768


Quite a turn of event from four years ago. Tonight Pres. George Bush the winner of the electoral vote in 2000, wins the popular vote by a little over 3 million votes, but loses the electoral college to Kerry.

A triumphant Kerry on Election Night 2004.

Kerry/Edwards: 272 48.33%
Bush/Cheney: 266 50.68%
2006:

The Democrat's hopes to reestablishing their dominance in American politics seemed to be lost by the end of the 2006. The Republicans had picked up more seats in Congress and President Kerry seemed to be standing on a sinking ship. His own party was at a loss. The War in Iraq still raged on and the War in Afghanistan continued with a surged, started in early 2006.

Pres. Kerry briefs the press.

The President's approval ratings continued to plummet as 2006 dragged on. Any attempt to grease the wheels of government seemed to be dashed, as Kerry was blocked by Republicans and Democrats who seemed unenthusiastic about some of his approaches.

Health Care reform was discussed by Kennedy and event brought into committee, but Kerry refused to back it up, seeing the political realities. "It can't be done, not now."

Having been elected without winning the popular vote Kerry's Presidency was mired from the start. The public remained largely divided and the consensus became that it did not matter who governed the country.

"We're in such a hole right now, it's going to take a long time to dig out, but we cannot embrace the Democratic ideas and philosophies. We did in fact win the election" Sen. Barack CObama.

The freshmen's senator's comment signaled the first sign of dissent within the Democratic Party, and following the midterms, when Kerry's approval rating dropped to 41% the speculation began about replacing Kerry in 2004.

Kerry remained determined to run in 2008.

While the National Democratic Committee remained mum on the President's continued slide, grassroots organizations began pushing for the entrance of a primary challenge to Pres. Kerry. The names included: Howard Dean, Dennis Kuchinich, and Barack Obama.
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Jerseyrules
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« Reply #12 on: April 24, 2012, 11:01:12 pm »
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Interesting
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Drink Too Much:
http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=147022.0

An Empire of Stars and Stripes:

http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=156974.0

Quote
FOOL!  I AM Cathcon!

Endorsements:
President: Chris Christie
Senate:
Governor:

------------------------------



[img]https://s-media-cache-ak0.pinimg.com/474x/4a/6a/03/4a6a039f4e813796b7731510707a5e4b.jpg[
Jerseyrules
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« Reply #13 on: April 24, 2012, 11:01:50 pm »
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Any chance W. pulls a Cleveland?
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Drink Too Much:
http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=147022.0

An Empire of Stars and Stripes:

http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=156974.0

Quote
FOOL!  I AM Cathcon!

Endorsements:
President: Chris Christie
Senate:
Governor:

------------------------------



[img]https://s-media-cache-ak0.pinimg.com/474x/4a/6a/03/4a6a039f4e813796b7731510707a5e4b.jpg[
NHI
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« Reply #14 on: April 26, 2012, 02:51:30 pm »
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In early 2007 Fred Thompson became the first Republican to enter the race to challenge John Kerry for reelection. The field was still unsettled, as it remained unclear whether or not former Pres. George Bush would enter the race and challenge Kerry in a rematch.

Other possibile candidates included Governor Mitt Romney of Massachusetts, Sen. John Sununu of New Hampshire, and Sen. Elizabeth Dole of North Carolina. Romney was first candidate to announce he would not challenge Kerry in 2008.

Following Romney's exit, Elizabeth Dole declared she would be a candidate for President in 2008.

"It's time to make our do-nothing President a one termer and get a Republican back in the White House."

Dole's phrase of 'do-nothing' caught on and continued to define the public perception of Kerry. Though Thompson and Dole were two top tier candidates, the Republican base and establishment still wondered if Bush would run again.

"Clearly there is a longing for someone else to enter the race, and Pres. Bush is that candidate. Like Grover Cleveland, he lost the electoral college in his reelection and then came back and won again."

Bush v. Kerry:
Bush: 48%
Kerry: 45%

A surprise entrance was Congressman Ron Paul of Texas, who declared his candidacy is opposition to both the Democrat and Republican establishments. [/i]

"It's time to reaffirm liberty and constitutional principles in this country. Both parties have ignored them, as evident by two wars and the passage of laws that erode our civil liberties."

Republican Nomination:
Other: 50%
Dole: 22%
Thompson: 20%
Paul: 7%

Finally the answer came in April of 2007. To a large crowd in Austin, TX former Pres. George Bush announced his campaign to run for President in 2008.

Bush announces his campaign for his third White House run.

"My fellow citizens. Our country is in trouble. We have an economy that is teetering on the brink of recession, a misguided effort by this president to lead our nation in a time of war. Our spirt as Americans has been broken and we watch as we fall behind, some even saying that our nation's best days are behind us. I know the sacrifice and the challenges that lie ahead, but for one more time, for America's sake, my fellow citizens I ask you to stand with me."

Republican Nomination:
Bush: 59%
Dole: 17%
Thompson: 14%
Paul: 9%

Bush rose to the top of the pack and following his entrance, both Dole and Thompson ended their campaigns and endorsed Bush for the nomination. Paul however remained in the race, running a more libertarian center campaign then Bush's.

"The American people rejected him four years, why would he be reelected?" -- Ron Paul.

Bush v. Kerry:
Bush: 48%
Kerry: 44%

Kerry Approval Rating:
Approval: 39%
Disapprove: 53%
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Pingvin
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« Reply #15 on: April 26, 2012, 03:10:22 pm »
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GO DUBYA!
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GLPman
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« Reply #16 on: April 27, 2012, 01:39:51 am »
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Definitely rooting for W.
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RedPrometheus
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« Reply #17 on: April 27, 2012, 03:37:13 am »
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Great timeline!

Can we have a look at Kerry's cabinet?
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Political Matrix

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S: -5,22
NHI
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« Reply #18 on: April 27, 2012, 06:02:37 am »
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President Kerry's Cabinet:

Pres. John Kerry
Vice Pres. John Edwards

Sec. of State: Joe Biden
Sec. of Treasury: Dick Gephardt
Sec. of Defense: Wesley Clark: (2005-2007), Leon Pannetta: (2007-)
Attorney General: Eric Holder
Sec. of Interior: Ken Salazar
Sec. of Agriculture: Tom Vislack
Sec. of Commerce: Bill Bradley
Sec. of Labor: Carol Moseley Braun
Sec. of Health and Human Services: Howard Dean: (2005-2005), Tom Daschle: (2005-)
Sec. of Housing and Urban Development: Shuan Donovan
Sec. of Transportation: Ray Lahood
Sec. of Energy: Arne Duncan
Sec. of Education: Jeanne Shaheen
Sec. of Veteran's Affairs: Carol Shea-Porter
Sec. of Homeland Security: Janet Napolitano
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NHI
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« Reply #19 on: April 27, 2012, 10:08:57 am »
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The Democrats' Unraveling

By the summer of 2007 the liberal wing of the Democratic Party finally broke, and as Kerry's approval ratings hit a search began for a replacement for him on the Democratic Ticket.

"We're looking at the first time since Carter in 1980, that an incumbent is being challenged by his own party, the questions remain who's up to it?" -- Chris Matthews.

Howard Dean's name rose to the top of the list. He has built a strong following in 2004, and was seen as the future of the Democratic Party, but his famous "Dean Scream" seemed to cripple his possible bid. Another downside was his short tenure as Sec. of Health and Human Services in the Kerry Administration.

"Kerry is still the incumbent and a challenger is going to have to be someone who is willing to ruffle the feather." -- Alan Colmes.

Dennis Kucinich announced his intentions to challenge Kerry for nomination, but Kucinich's following was as strong, when compared to Kennedy's challenge of Kerry in 1980. The Senator from Massachusetts stood by his friend and President, but privately had his frustrations over the President's tenure.

With Dean refusing to enter the race, and only Kucinich as the challenger to Kerry, it seemed that his renomination was assured. However, the freshman Senator from Illinois, who rose to stardom as the keynote speaker at the Democrat's Convention in 2004, announced to a large crowd in Springfield, Illinois that he was running for President of the United States."

"We've put up with the status quo for too long, and some might say, wait. Now is the not the time, and to that I respond. No, we can't wait. It must be done. Progress has never been brought forth by standing still in America, it has been brought forth by all of us, walking and working to aspire to that ideal vision of a more perfect union!"

Obama's surprise entrance shocked the political establishment, as well as the Kerry campaign, that immediately went into panic mode as the eloquent Democratic senator began calling Kerry out for prolonging the wars and failing to implement the ideas and direction needed for America. He instantly drew support from such prominent Democrats as Russ Feingold, Harry Reid and Bernie Sanders (who had contemplated challenging Kerry, but decided against it).

Hillary Clinton did not endorse Obama, but praised his entrance as a need to, "shake up the debate and bring in new discussions."

Democratic Nomination:
Kerry: 49%
Obama: 38%
Kucinich: 8%

The oratorical skill of Obama amazed the Kerry campaign, as well as his ability to fundraise, and draw on it mostly from the grassroots level.

"Let me finish tonight. Barack Obama, the first term senator from Illinois is clearly a force to be reckon with and could be the Democratic nominee in 2008. Democrats are furious with Kerry and are looking for someone to champion the liberal cause. He's young. He's exciting and he's shaking up the political establishment. Could 2008 be the year we break down racial barriers and chose hope over more of the same..." -- Chris Matthews.

Kerry refused to debate Obama leading up to the Iowa caucus, instead focusing on running a Rose Garden strategy.

"I'll be the nominee." -- Pres. Kerry in Dec. 2007.

Iowa:
Obama: 44.31%
Kerry: 41.33%
Kucinich: 13.36%
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Jerseyrules
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« Reply #20 on: April 27, 2012, 07:08:42 pm »
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Awesome!  Keep it up!
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Drink Too Much:
http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=147022.0

An Empire of Stars and Stripes:

http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=156974.0

Quote
FOOL!  I AM Cathcon!

Endorsements:
President: Chris Christie
Senate:
Governor:

------------------------------



[img]https://s-media-cache-ak0.pinimg.com/474x/4a/6a/03/4a6a039f4e813796b7731510707a5e4b.jpg[
NHI
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« Reply #21 on: April 28, 2012, 10:11:23 am »
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Iowa: Republican

George Bush swept the Iowa Caucuses with a landslide victory over challenger Ron Paul. Though some pundits were surprised that Paul did perform better than expected, the former President made no mention of his primary rival and instead focused on an optimistic message aimed at attacking his Democratic opponents.

Bush: 86.9%
Paul: 12.1%

"The last three years are not America's future. We can and will do much better."
]
Bush then focused his campaign on hopes for another landslide in New Hampshire, while Pres. Kerry looked to revive his campaign by winning the Granite State.

"The campaign went into panic mode after Iowa. No one took Obama seriously." --  Campaign Manager, Mary Beth Cahill.

Obama's triumphant victory in Iowa. "Change begins to tonight for America!"

Delegates: Republicans
Bush: 34
Paul: 0

Delegates: Democrats:
Obama: 19
Kerry: 16
Kucinich: 10

Going into New Hampshire, Bush campaigned as the presumptive nominee, while Obama challenged Kerry to a debate. The Kerry campaigned once more refused a debate, and hoped that to have a home court advantage with New Hampshire, but going out of Iowa, Obama led Kerry by more than fifteen points.

Kerry, the night before the primary. The polls showed him down by seven.

The New Hampshire Primary produced another solid win for George Bush, though once again Ron Paul performed better than expected. Unlike Iowa where Bush trounced him by 74 points, in New Hampshire the margin was much smaller, which enthused the Paul supporters as the campaign carried on.
New Hampshire:

Bush: 64.9%
[color=yellow[/color]Paul: 33.7%

Delegates: Republicans:
Bush: 44
Paul: 2

The Democratic race was not decided as quickly. Throughout the time, Kerry and Obama traded spots for first, until finally at 11:15, PM, Pres. Kerry was declared the winner; albeit narrowly.

Kerry: 46.8%
Obama: 45.6%
Kucinich: 6.6%

Delegates: Democrats:
Kerry: 29
Obama: 28
Kucinich: 10

With New Hampshire now decided the campaign moved into Michigan, where Obama hoped to reestablish his credibility as something other than an Iowa one shot wonder, and Bush looked to drive his only opponent from the race.

Kucinich endorses Obama.

Following his loss in New Hampshire, Kucinich dropped out of the race and endorsed Obama for the nomination, citing him as the real Democrat in the way, and a champion of progressive causes. "He will remake America right, in the vein of Kennedy, Roosevelt and Johnson. This is the man we need!"

Obama went onto win the Nevada Caucuses following New Hampshire, which hurt Kerry going into South Carolina. Bush would go onto win Michigan and Nevada.

Nevada: Democrat
Obama: 50.5%
Kerry: 48.2%

Nevada: Republican
Bush: 84.7%
Paul: 14.3%

Michigan: Republican:
Bush: 89.9%
Paul: 9.1%

Delegates: Republican
Bush: 138
Paul: 2

Delegates: Democrats
Obama: 41
Kerry: 41

Coming up: The South Carolina Primary
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Jerseyrules
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« Reply #22 on: April 28, 2012, 10:19:16 am »
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What happened to Liddy?  Sad
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Drink Too Much:
http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=147022.0

An Empire of Stars and Stripes:

http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=156974.0

Quote
FOOL!  I AM Cathcon!

Endorsements:
President: Chris Christie
Senate:
Governor:

------------------------------



[img]https://s-media-cache-ak0.pinimg.com/474x/4a/6a/03/4a6a039f4e813796b7731510707a5e4b.jpg[
NHI
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« Reply #23 on: April 28, 2012, 11:01:56 am »
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What happened to Liddy?  Sad

She ended her bid and endorsed Bush once he entered the race.
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NHI
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« Reply #24 on: April 28, 2012, 12:23:29 pm »
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Obama's interview on Meet The Press.

Leading up to the Michigan Primary, Obama sat down for an interview with Tim Russert where he continued to hammer home his attack on John Kerry.

Q. Will you support, without question, Pres. Kerry if he is the nominee?
A. Yes. I have made that very clear, Tim. However, I do believe that I'll end up winning the nomination, on the basis that I am offering a very different path than what Pres. Kerry has offered the last three years. I think the reason people have been drawn to my campaign and are supporting us is because one I have a very different vision and two, Pres. Kerry continues to remain detached from the actual work of campaigning. If he wants to be renominated, then he should be engaging with the public more than he has done in the past.
Q. There have been those who have said you've run an almost scorched earth campaign, and these comments come from not just Democrats, but Republicans. Do you regret any of your ads, especially the one where you criticized Kerry's military service?
A. Tim, my campaign is not responsible for that ad. Other groups have focused on it, and that is their choice. My opposition to the President renomination is simple. He hasn't lived up to what he said he would.
Q. Do you think this in-fighting will hurt the Democrats and whoever the nominee is in November against Pres. Bush? I say this, as in 1980 when Ted Kennedy challenged Pres. Jimmy Carter, the campaign was destructive for the Democrats and as you know, Jimmy Carter lost to Ronald Reagan.
A. I'm not worried about our party. We'll be united.

Obama led Kerry going into Michigan, and as it became apparent that Kerry was going to lose the state the campaign had an immediate shakeup. Kerry's campaign manager was replaced with old Clinton loyalist Mark Penn who developed a plan to exploit Obama's inexperience and portray him as unelectable against George Bush.

"The Kerry campaign assumed from the start that the fact that he was President would secure him the nomination. Unlike the Jimmy Carter strategy, Kerry seemed to lack the aggressive strike to go after Obama. I came in and woke them up." -- Mark Penn in an except from the book, "GAME CHANGE: KERRY V. OBAMA

Michigan:
Obama: 55.9%
Kerry: 43.5%

Delegates: Democrats
Obama: 75
Kerry: 70

Following Obama's crushing win over Kerry in Michigan, some Democrats in the establishment who had stood by Kerry began to panic.

"It became clear that this was a guy to be reckon with." Sen. Joe Biden.

Going into South Carolina the Kerry campaign aggressively went after Obama, attacking him on his experience as well as his combative nature of attacking the President. While the experience angel seemed to help, it was not enough to swing the state in Kerry's favor and Obama went onto win and win big.

South Carolina: Democrats
Obama: 65.44%
Kerry: 33.56%

Delegates: Democrats
Obama: 104
Kerry: 82

The Obama win was in part helped by the large African American turnout, but it still illustrated the weakness of the Kerry campaign and the fact that Democrats were moving away from him and embracing Obama.

"If Kerry loses Florida then his campaign is finished. He needs a comeback." -- Chris Matthews.

South Carolina: Republican
Bush: 92.2%
Paul: 6.8%

Delegates: Republicans
Bush: 162
Paul: 2

Bush rode to another victory in South Carolina and continued his attack against Kerry, though with the results on the Democratic side, Karl Rove made the decision to begin a focus of attack on possible nominee Obama.

"It became obvious after South Carolina that Obama needed to be taken seriously and we treated him just as seriously, if not more so than the incumbent President." -- Karl Rove.

Florida Poll: Democrats
Obama: 49%
Kerry: 44%

Matchup: Obama v. Bush
Obama: 44%
Bush: 48%

Matchup: Kerry v. Bush
Kerry: 43%
Bush: 50%

Democratic Primary Map:
Obama
Kerry

Kerry Approval Rating:
Approve: 37%
Disapprove: 55%

"Kerry's in worse shape in many ways than Carter. At least with that campaign Democrats could bite their tongue and support him against Reagan. If Kerry does win this, then he'll be lucky to get ten percent Democratic turnout. The base wasn't excited by him last night and sure as hell won't be excited this time. He's really got no choice but to end it, in a Johnson-esque statement and endorse Obama. I mean the campaign can restaff and reorganize till they're blue in the face, but doing that and saying oh look we won New Hampshire by one point two percent, and my opponent has only won four states. The party is moving away from Kerry and the Clinton style of Democratic politics and embracing Obama. He is the future of the party. It's good for Republicans though in the end." -- Dick Morris.

"He served a full year in the US, before announcing his campaign. Is he really ready to be President?" -- Except from Kerry Ad airing in Florida.

Kerry's attempt to portray Obama as untried and inexperienced helped in Florida and he managed to eek out a narrow win over the Illinois Senator.

"Tonight we begin our comeback!" -- Pres. Kerry.

Florida: Democrat
Kerry: 49.78%
Obama: 48.65%

Delegates: Democrat
Obama: 192
Kerry: 179

Florida: Republican
Bush: 93.5%
Paul: 5.5%

Delegates: Republican
Bush: 219
Paul: 2

Bush's image received an incredible comeback as a result of the primary on the Democratic side.

With the Democrats still undecided over their nominee, Bush began to hone his general election message, as well as appear Presidential on the stump. Having served already as President the public consensus of him as a strong leader came back, and at each stop he made he made a continuous plea to the middle of America, citing the importance of unity. "We have been divided these last four years, but a house divided, as a great man once said, cannot stand. Let us stand together as one people, united and strong!"

With Kerry's win in Florida the focus shifted to Super Tuesday, where Obama needed to win big over the President and hopefully drive him out of the race. Kerry had only carried two states, and by narrow margins. He needed to continued to play-up Obama's inexperience, however the attack seemed to falter as Kerry headed into Super Tuesday.

A few days before Super Tuesday, Ron Paul, the sole challenger to George Bush ended his campaign, following six straight defeats. A lack of funding and still poor name recognition contributed to his campaign's demise. But in his concession for the nomination Paul did not endorse Bush, and seemed to leave the door open for a possible third party bid, either on independent or libertarian ticket.

"Our campaign ends here, but our cause and purpose goes on, because while we set out not with little chance of winning, we set out to educate the people and inform them of what is happening to this country, and that we, we the people with the Constitution at our backing have the power to change it!"

Paul bows out, but does not endorse Bush.

Bush Secures GOP Nod.


With Bush now the presumptive nominee, the focus began as to who would run with him on the ticket. Cheney, the former Vice President had ruled himself out as a candidate from the launch of Bush's campaign, which prompted speculation as to who the candidate would be. Immediately the media speculated a list of possible contenders:

Gov. Mitt Romney
Frm. Mayor Rudy Giuliani
Sen. Elizabeth Dole
Sen. John Sununu
Sen. John McCain
Frm. Gov. Mike Huckabee
Gov. Tim Pawlenty

Democratic Primary: Obama v. Kerry
Obama: 49%
Kerry: 44%
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