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Author Topic: The Kerry Problem  (Read 4227 times)
NHI
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« Reply #25 on: April 28, 2012, 12:23:29 pm »
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Obama's interview on Meet The Press.

Leading up to the Michigan Primary, Obama sat down for an interview with Tim Russert where he continued to hammer home his attack on John Kerry.

Q. Will you support, without question, Pres. Kerry if he is the nominee?
A. Yes. I have made that very clear, Tim. However, I do believe that I'll end up winning the nomination, on the basis that I am offering a very different path than what Pres. Kerry has offered the last three years. I think the reason people have been drawn to my campaign and are supporting us is because one I have a very different vision and two, Pres. Kerry continues to remain detached from the actual work of campaigning. If he wants to be renominated, then he should be engaging with the public more than he has done in the past.
Q. There have been those who have said you've run an almost scorched earth campaign, and these comments come from not just Democrats, but Republicans. Do you regret any of your ads, especially the one where you criticized Kerry's military service?
A. Tim, my campaign is not responsible for that ad. Other groups have focused on it, and that is their choice. My opposition to the President renomination is simple. He hasn't lived up to what he said he would.
Q. Do you think this in-fighting will hurt the Democrats and whoever the nominee is in November against Pres. Bush? I say this, as in 1980 when Ted Kennedy challenged Pres. Jimmy Carter, the campaign was destructive for the Democrats and as you know, Jimmy Carter lost to Ronald Reagan.
A. I'm not worried about our party. We'll be united.

Obama led Kerry going into Michigan, and as it became apparent that Kerry was going to lose the state the campaign had an immediate shakeup. Kerry's campaign manager was replaced with old Clinton loyalist Mark Penn who developed a plan to exploit Obama's inexperience and portray him as unelectable against George Bush.

"The Kerry campaign assumed from the start that the fact that he was President would secure him the nomination. Unlike the Jimmy Carter strategy, Kerry seemed to lack the aggressive strike to go after Obama. I came in and woke them up." -- Mark Penn in an except from the book, "GAME CHANGE: KERRY V. OBAMA

Michigan:
Obama: 55.9%
Kerry: 43.5%

Delegates: Democrats
Obama: 75
Kerry: 70

Following Obama's crushing win over Kerry in Michigan, some Democrats in the establishment who had stood by Kerry began to panic.

"It became clear that this was a guy to be reckon with." Sen. Joe Biden.

Going into South Carolina the Kerry campaign aggressively went after Obama, attacking him on his experience as well as his combative nature of attacking the President. While the experience angel seemed to help, it was not enough to swing the state in Kerry's favor and Obama went onto win and win big.

South Carolina: Democrats
Obama: 65.44%
Kerry: 33.56%

Delegates: Democrats
Obama: 104
Kerry: 82

The Obama win was in part helped by the large African American turnout, but it still illustrated the weakness of the Kerry campaign and the fact that Democrats were moving away from him and embracing Obama.

"If Kerry loses Florida then his campaign is finished. He needs a comeback." -- Chris Matthews.

South Carolina: Republican
Bush: 92.2%
Paul: 6.8%

Delegates: Republicans
Bush: 162
Paul: 2

Bush rode to another victory in South Carolina and continued his attack against Kerry, though with the results on the Democratic side, Karl Rove made the decision to begin a focus of attack on possible nominee Obama.

"It became obvious after South Carolina that Obama needed to be taken seriously and we treated him just as seriously, if not more so than the incumbent President." -- Karl Rove.

Florida Poll: Democrats
Obama: 49%
Kerry: 44%

Matchup: Obama v. Bush
Obama: 44%
Bush: 48%

Matchup: Kerry v. Bush
Kerry: 43%
Bush: 50%

Democratic Primary Map:
Obama
Kerry

Kerry Approval Rating:
Approve: 37%
Disapprove: 55%

"Kerry's in worse shape in many ways than Carter. At least with that campaign Democrats could bite their tongue and support him against Reagan. If Kerry does win this, then he'll be lucky to get ten percent Democratic turnout. The base wasn't excited by him last night and sure as hell won't be excited this time. He's really got no choice but to end it, in a Johnson-esque statement and endorse Obama. I mean the campaign can restaff and reorganize till they're blue in the face, but doing that and saying oh look we won New Hampshire by one point two percent, and my opponent has only won four states. The party is moving away from Kerry and the Clinton style of Democratic politics and embracing Obama. He is the future of the party. It's good for Republicans though in the end." -- Dick Morris.

"He served a full year in the US, before announcing his campaign. Is he really ready to be President?" -- Except from Kerry Ad airing in Florida.

Kerry's attempt to portray Obama as untried and inexperienced helped in Florida and he managed to eek out a narrow win over the Illinois Senator.

"Tonight we begin our comeback!" -- Pres. Kerry.

Florida: Democrat
Kerry: 49.78%
Obama: 48.65%

Delegates: Democrat
Obama: 192
Kerry: 179

Florida: Republican
Bush: 93.5%
Paul: 5.5%

Delegates: Republican
Bush: 219
Paul: 2

Bush's image received an incredible comeback as a result of the primary on the Democratic side.

With the Democrats still undecided over their nominee, Bush began to hone his general election message, as well as appear Presidential on the stump. Having served already as President the public consensus of him as a strong leader came back, and at each stop he made he made a continuous plea to the middle of America, citing the importance of unity. "We have been divided these last four years, but a house divided, as a great man once said, cannot stand. Let us stand together as one people, united and strong!"

With Kerry's win in Florida the focus shifted to Super Tuesday, where Obama needed to win big over the President and hopefully drive him out of the race. Kerry had only carried two states, and by narrow margins. He needed to continued to play-up Obama's inexperience, however the attack seemed to falter as Kerry headed into Super Tuesday.

A few days before Super Tuesday, Ron Paul, the sole challenger to George Bush ended his campaign, following six straight defeats. A lack of funding and still poor name recognition contributed to his campaign's demise. But in his concession for the nomination Paul did not endorse Bush, and seemed to leave the door open for a possible third party bid, either on independent or libertarian ticket.

"Our campaign ends here, but our cause and purpose goes on, because while we set out not with little chance of winning, we set out to educate the people and inform them of what is happening to this country, and that we, we the people with the Constitution at our backing have the power to change it!"

Paul bows out, but does not endorse Bush.

Bush Secures GOP Nod.


With Bush now the presumptive nominee, the focus began as to who would run with him on the ticket. Cheney, the former Vice President had ruled himself out as a candidate from the launch of Bush's campaign, which prompted speculation as to who the candidate would be. Immediately the media speculated a list of possible contenders:

Gov. Mitt Romney
Frm. Mayor Rudy Giuliani
Sen. Elizabeth Dole
Sen. John Sununu
Sen. John McCain
Frm. Gov. Mike Huckabee
Gov. Tim Pawlenty

Democratic Primary: Obama v. Kerry
Obama: 49%
Kerry: 44%
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NHI
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« Reply #26 on: April 28, 2012, 06:20:01 pm »
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Super Tuesday: 2008

Obama: 960
Kerry: 896

Obama triumphed on Super Tuesday, winning all the important states, save for California.

Obama came out the winner in states and delegates after Super Tuesday, though the Kerry campaign touted their impressive comeback, but the momentum was with Obama's campaign and as February dragged on, the Obama campaign cemented their frontrunner statuses with wins in Louisiana, Nebraska, the U.S. Virgin Islands and Washington.

Delegates:
Obama: 1,064
Kerry: 953

As Obama crossed the threshold of 1000 delegates the media turned their focus to the all but certain prospect that Obama would be the Democratic Nominee. Kerry rebounded later in February with a win in the Maine caucuses, but Obama continued to plow on with win after win.

Delegates:
Obama: 1,195
Kerry: 1,073

March 4th, the "Second Super Tuesday" proved to be a day of the battlegrounds between Obama and Kerry.The focus remained on Ohio and Texas. Kerry was seen to need to win both.

Kerry easily took Rhode Island, while Obama took Vermont, but the focus remained on Ohio and Texas. Finally after a night of back and forth Kerry was declared the winner in Ohio, but ended up losing both the primary and caucus in Texas.

Delegates:
Obama: 1,382
Kerry: 1,256

"This is going to be one hell of a convention." -- Chris Matthews.
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« Reply #27 on: April 28, 2012, 07:08:32 pm »
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Why isn't McCain running?
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« Reply #28 on: April 28, 2012, 07:48:01 pm »
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Why isn't McCain running?
I toyed with it, but decided to give Bush a second chance, though McCain will have a prominent role in upcoming updates.
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« Reply #29 on: April 29, 2012, 03:20:29 am »
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And we all know who is going to be Dubya's veep Tongue
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« Reply #30 on: April 29, 2012, 12:19:09 pm »
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And we all know who is going to be Dubya's veep Tongue
Mitt
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the birth of modern america & onward election Former Vice President Blanche Bruce defeats incumbent President Grover Cleveland in 1904. In an age of unpredictable election outcomes Bruce finds himself reelected in 1908 against an opponent whose name escapes me at the moment. Blanche Bruce served as Vice President under Frederick Douglas whom Cleveland defeated in 1900. His Vice President runs to replace Bruce in 1912.
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« Reply #31 on: April 30, 2012, 12:21:55 am »
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Shhhh!  I'm trying to watch the movie!!!  Anyway, I'd like to see Liddy here.
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Drink Too Much:
http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=147022.0

An Empire of Stars and Stripes:

http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=156974.0

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Endorsements:
President: Hillary Clinton
Governor: Brown (CA), Corbett (PA), Scott (FL)
House: Emken (CA)
Other: Rob McCoy (CA Assembly)

---------------------------------------

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« Reply #32 on: April 30, 2012, 12:22:34 am »
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What happened to Liddy?  Sad

She ended her bid and endorsed Bush once he entered the race.

Ah.  Liddy for VEEP!
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Drink Too Much:
http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=147022.0

An Empire of Stars and Stripes:

http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=156974.0

Quote
FOOL!  I AM Cathcon!

Endorsements:
President: Hillary Clinton
Governor: Brown (CA), Corbett (PA), Scott (FL)
House: Emken (CA)
Other: Rob McCoy (CA Assembly)

---------------------------------------

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« Reply #33 on: April 30, 2012, 04:32:31 pm »
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The remainder of March produced two more Obama victories in Mississippi and Wyoming, adding even more delegates to the candidate's totals.

Delegates:
Obama: 1,411
Kerry: 1,272

"The problem for the President is that he is running out of states and delegates." -- John King.

"Aside from that he's lost the party. Barack Obama represent a new dawn for the Democratic Party, particularly those in the liberal base. He's going to be the nominee and I predict Kerry'll drop out and concede to Obama." -- Roland Martin.

The focus fell to the Pennsylvania primary where it was deemed that Kerry had a last chance to have a comeback.

A sign of the times. A rally for Kerry in Philadelphia.

Results: Pennsylvania
Obama: 58.59%
Kerry: 40.41%

Delegates:
Obama: 1,500
Kerry: 1,341

Obama claimed victory and the Kerry campaign went into lockdown. The following week Obama carried the caucuses in Guam and focused his energies on Indiana and North Carolina. Kerry seemed to withdraw from campaigning following his defeat in Pennsylvania, but instead of dropping out, the Kerry campaign's statement became, "The President is focused on governing and will be awaiting the returns on May 6th."

"We knew, at that moment we had won." -- David Axelrod.


Obama cruised to an overwhelming victory in North Carolina and trounced Kerry in Indiana. That night from a press conference in the White House, John Kerry, the incumbent President conceded the nomination to his Democratic challenger Barack Obama.

"The time has come for unity. We as a party cannot allow the failed policies of the past to be brought back onto the national stage. Therefore I am stepping aside and probably endorsing the man who will be the next President of the United States, Barack Obama." -- Pres. John Kerry.

"Kerry should have quit. He should have stepped aside after Pennsylvania or pulled a Lyndon Johnson. He lost the party and he hurt himself and the party in the process by engaging in a primary process where the deck was stacked against him." -- Rachel Maddow.

"It was question of the past or a question of history. The choice of history won, and rightfully so." -- Chris Matthews.

Barack Obama, the presumptive Democratic Nominee.

Kerry Concedes, Obama's the nominee

"I congratulate Sen. Obama on his victory and look forward to the campaign in the fall." -- Former Pres. George W. Bush

Kerry Approval Rating:
Approve: 36%
Disapprove: 56%

Obama v. Bush
Obama: 43%
Bush: 48%
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« Reply #34 on: May 01, 2012, 12:05:24 am »
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Good update.  Paul / Ventura 08!
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Endorsements:
President: Hillary Clinton
Governor: Brown (CA), Corbett (PA), Scott (FL)
House: Emken (CA)
Other: Rob McCoy (CA Assembly)

---------------------------------------

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« Reply #35 on: May 01, 2012, 07:49:09 am »
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In mid May, in a surprise announcement George Bush announced his pick of Elizabeth Dole as his choice for Vice President. With Kerry officially out of the race, Bush took charge of the race and began to run as if he were the incumbent President.

The Pick: Elizabeth Dole

The Republican Ticket: Bush/Dole

"I would be honored to serve beside the man who will be our next President, George W. Bush... He won the popular vote by three million over the President. That is hardly a rejection of a President. Take a look at the Democratic Party. The incumbent President couldn't even win a nomination battle. The Democrats have had their time in the spotlight again and proven that they're just not ready for primetime. Let's send George Bush back to the White House in November!"

"The Bush/Dole ticket clearly represents the past, whereas Barack Obama is the future for America." -- David Axelrod.

In early polls Bush continued to lead Obama by as much as ten points. The freshmen senator who had shocked the political establishment by winning the nomination, now needed to find a seasoned pick for Vice President who would help offset the charges of him being inexperienced.

At the same time, Ron Paul, Republican challenger in the primary began stirring the pot of speculation that he might be forging a third party bid. On CNN's Larry King, former Governor of Minnesota Jesse Ventura applauded the idea of a Paul bid.

"I hope he runs! We can't afford to have George Bush back in the White House and I don't know enough about Barack Obama to make a sound judgement of whether or not he'd be a good President."

Ron Paul on Nightline, deals with the question of running as a third party..
"I never deal in absolutes, but who knows what will happen?"

When asked if he would seek the Libertarian Nomination, Paul replied, "I am not actively seeking it." The idea of a Paul third party ticket caused many Republicans to panic. His presence would split the Republican vote and give the election to Obama. However, other believed that Obama and Paul would effectively split the youth vote, allowing for a Bush win. A poll was conducted with Paul in the race, showed an essential dead heat between Bush and Obama.

2008 Poll:
Obama: 45%
Bush: 45%
Paul: 10%

A group of Paul supporters outside the Sheraton Hotel in Denver, Colorado at the start of the Libertarian Convention.

Paul declares his candidacy for the Libertarian nomination.

First Ballot: President
Ron Paul: 289 votes 46.53%
Bob Barr: 167 26.89%
Wayne Allan Root: 101 16.26%
Mike Gravel: 40 6.4%
Christine Smith: 21 3.3%
Mary Ruwart: 30.03%

Following the results, Gravel, Root, Smith and Ruwart all ended their bids and endorsed Ron Paul. Barr remained in the race and challenged Paul on the second ballot, but it was not contest.

Second Ballot: President
Ron Paul: 479 (75.55%)
Bob Barr: 155 (24.45%)

Ron Paul, the Libertarian Nominee for President.

The next phase shifted to the Vice Presidential selection. Bob Barr angled for Paul's endorsement of the spot and ultimately became the Libertarian nominee for Vice President, on the first ballot.

First Ballot: Vice President
Bob Barr: 300 (62.76%)
Wayne Allan Root: 178 (37.24%)

Ron Paul's entrance onto the Libertarian Ticket shocked the political establishment, making 2008 an even wilder yeah than imagined...

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« Reply #36 on: May 01, 2012, 06:13:38 pm »
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General Election: Poll
Bush: 45%
Obama: 43%
Paul: 11%

Bush campaigns.

Obama stumps in NH. "We can't afford to go back."

Paul on the trail. "We are dangerous to the status quo, and we're a threat because we stand for liberty and freedom, not falsities."

"Paul presented a unique dynamic, he attacked both major candidates and presented a difficult balance for Bush who wanted to focus on Obama, while also keep his party intact, and Obama who needed to focus his energy squarely on Bush." -- David Gergen, CNN.

"People underestimated Paul and the following he had amassed in the primary. He had a base of support, the question remained how big and how motivated." -- Chuck Todd, MSNBC

Battleground State: Polls
Ohio:
Obama: 45%
Bush: 45%
Paul: 10%

Florida:
Bush: 47%
Obama: 44%
Paul: 8%

New Hampshire:
Bush: 38%
Obama: 37%
Paul: 21%

Iowa:
Obama: 45%
Bush: 41%
Paul: 12%

New Mexico:
Obama: 43%
Bush: 43%
Paul: 10%

Colorado:
Obama: 45%
Bush: 45%
Paul: 7%

Vermont:
Obama: 50%
Bush 29%
Paul: 14%

Washington:
Obama: 39%
Bush: 35%
Paul: 18%

Maine:
Obama: 44%
Bush: 37%
Paul: 15%

Minnesota:
Obama: 48%
Bush: 39%
Paul: 7%

Michigan:
Bush: 45%
Obama: 44%
Paul: 8%

Pennsylvania:
Obama: 44%
Bush: 41%
Paul: 8%

Wisconsin:
Obama: 47%
Bush: 44%
Paul: 9%

Is Barack Obama ready to be President?
Yes: 43%
No: 53%

Is Ron Paul too old to be President?
Yes: 58%
No: 37%

Has your opinion changed of George Bush since he left office?
For the better: 49%
For the worse: 21%
No change: 27%

Pres. Kerry Approval Rating:
Approve: 35%
Disapprove: 56%

Is America better off than it was four years ago?
Yes: 33%
No: 62%

How do you trust on the economy? (Bush or Obama)
Bush: 52%
Obama: 44%

How do you trust on national security? (Bush or Obama)
Bush: 57%
Obama: 38%

As spring turned to summer and the conventions neared, Barack Obama prepared the announcement of his Vice Presidential pick. His shortlist included:

Hillary Clinton
Wesley Clark
Howard Dean
Michael Bloomberg
Tim Kaine
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« Reply #37 on: May 02, 2012, 01:58:33 pm »
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I don't think history is on the side of Obama winning the democratic nod in this scenario.
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the birth of modern america & onward election Former Vice President Blanche Bruce defeats incumbent President Grover Cleveland in 1904. In an age of unpredictable election outcomes Bruce finds himself reelected in 1908 against an opponent whose name escapes me at the moment. Blanche Bruce served as Vice President under Frederick Douglas whom Cleveland defeated in 1900. His Vice President runs to replace Bruce in 1912.
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« Reply #38 on: May 02, 2012, 02:02:58 pm »
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I look forward to seeing how the presidency and the senate races turn out though. Dole is picked to save her from a tough senate campaign. What was the balance of power in the congress after 2006?
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http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=195483.new#new
the birth of modern america & onward election Former Vice President Blanche Bruce defeats incumbent President Grover Cleveland in 1904. In an age of unpredictable election outcomes Bruce finds himself reelected in 1908 against an opponent whose name escapes me at the moment. Blanche Bruce served as Vice President under Frederick Douglas whom Cleveland defeated in 1900. His Vice President runs to replace Bruce in 1912.
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« Reply #39 on: May 02, 2012, 04:21:05 pm »
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I look forward to seeing how the presidency and the senate races turn out though. Dole is picked to save her from a tough senate campaign. What was the balance of power in the congress after 2006?

Equally divided. Republicans hold Congress and Senate is divided, with Edwards to break the tie.
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« Reply #40 on: May 02, 2012, 07:20:01 pm »
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Bush/Dole? Haha, using two of the most overused names on Republican tickets in the last fifty years. Thing is, those two names were either on the ticket or running for the ticket from '76 to 2004, and in 1980, 1988, and 2000, you had both a Dole and a Bush running against each other for the nomination.
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« Reply #41 on: May 03, 2012, 05:22:04 pm »
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Bush/Dole? Haha, using two of the most overused names on Republican tickets in the last fifty years. Thing is, those two names were either on the ticket or running for the ticket from '76 to 2004, and in 1980, 1988, and 2000, you had both a Dole and a Bush running against each other for the nomination.

The Great Reconciliation.  By the way, what are you doing in CA?
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Drink Too Much:
http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=147022.0

An Empire of Stars and Stripes:

http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=156974.0

Quote
FOOL!  I AM Cathcon!

Endorsements:
President: Hillary Clinton
Governor: Brown (CA), Corbett (PA), Scott (FL)
House: Emken (CA)
Other: Rob McCoy (CA Assembly)

---------------------------------------

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« Reply #42 on: May 04, 2012, 03:55:23 pm »
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"My fellow citizens I proudly accept your nomination for President...We've seen an erosion of our confidence these last four years. The policies pursued have stagnated our economy and weakened our resolve abroad...I would not have sought this office again, if I did not have a deep love for this country and belief that we can do better. The last four years are not America's destiny. A small detour and we'll right in November! I ask you one more time to stand with me. Stand with me for our children. Stand with me for our men and women in uniform. Stand with me for the businessmen and women. The workers, the families. Stand with me for America's future, and together let us begin anew!"

Going out of the Republican Bush saw an uptick in the polls and led Obama, but the question still lingered over how much damage Paul's campaign would cost him.

"We didn't want him in the debates. We didn't want his presence." -- Karl Rove. Excerpt from his memoir, "Courage and Conviction."

"Going out of that convention it seemed like they had a renomination of Bush. It's as if he was already President." -- David Gregory, Meet The Press.

Bush v. Obama v. Paul:
Bush: 47%
Obama: 39%
Paul: 12%
"The challenge that faces the GOP is the history factor. They are running against the first African American who has a shot at winning the White House, and out of guilt, our of a desire to start anew, out of history, people might vote for this guy." -- Chris Matthews

Following the Republican's convention, Obama announced the pick of his running mate: Wesley Clark.[/i]

Clark accepts the VP nomination.

"Now is not the time to retreat, it is the time to move forward!"

"The Republicans are running the same man, on the same platform, on the same ideas, on the same failed policies. Do we want to return to that? No. In America progress is never made by standing still. We move forward, that is the history of progress in the United States of America, and as President with your help I will help lead that charge."

Obama v. Bush v. Paul:
Bush: 44%
Obama: 43%
Paul: 11%

Bush: 249
Obama: 248
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« Reply #43 on: May 05, 2012, 11:40:55 am »
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Paul on the stump.
"I don't honestly see a way that former President Bush has a leg to stand on. He supports increasing the wars, he's talked about bombing Iran, and wants to continue the same fiscal policies that have brought our economy to the state it's at. Then we have Barack Obama. He's a nice guy, but he doesn't have a plan to end the wars or return us to a sound monetary policy. Both men's policies want to grow the size of government and damage and remove our civil liberties! We're a threat, but not a dangerous one to the country, but to the establishment and to the status quo, because we represent real change, real hope and a fresh start!"

"No one took Paul seriously enough, but his support was real and untamed." -- Brit Hume

"Obama had the side of history, Bush had the side of the past, and Paul in many ways represented the future." -- Rachel Maddow.

The 2008 Election moved into the final phase: The Fall Campaign. With Obama and Bush tied in the polls both campaigns looked for a way to break ahead of the other. However, forces beyond their control went into effect on September 15th.

Nightmare on Wall Street.

The onset of the recession and financial crisis reshaped the race in ways no one could imagine. You had Kerry who was the President was preparing to unveil a series of bailouts. Obama's experience came into question. Bush was given some blame for the onset, and there you had Ron Paul who had been preaching this coming economic catastrophe from the start and he stood there not smug, but determined and ready." -- John Tate, Paul Campaign Manager.

"This is not a time to panic. Now is the time for cooler heads to prevail and for us to move forward in unison. Democrats and Republicans alike."

Obama's line, "This is not a time to panic." was seized on by the Bush campaign and they transformed it into a series of ads that played on Obama's lack of experience and questioned his ability to handle a crisis as President. As a result Obama saw a downturn in the polls, and Bush moved ahead, trumpeting, "We'll come through this crisis, so help me God!"

Bush v. Obama v. Paul
Bush: 47%
Obama: 39%
Paul: 12%

"This race is moving in Bush's favor because of his experience and readiness to do the job." -- Karl Rove on Hannity and Colmes.

Excerpts from the Presidential Debates:
"We've allowed for too much deregulation, policies started by President Bush during his tenure, allowed for the fat cats on Wall Street to run wild and bring this economy down. It's time to have a partnership between business and government when it comes to the economy." -- Barack Obama.

"Senator Obama, we can both agree that there needs to be accountability on Wall Street, but it has been Democrat policies that have led to the situation we're currently in." -- George W. Bush.

"This is the problem with this country today. Both parties have been allowed to dominate the issues, and yet they ultimately become one in the same. Democrats want more spending, so do Republicans. There's no difference. The fact is this whole problem we're in could be solved by auditing the Federal Reserve, having a sound currency and adhering to the Constitution of the United States! It tells us what we can and what we cannot do." -- Ron Paul

Going into Election day the polls showed a dead heat between Bush and Obama, with the wildcard being Paul, and how much of a spoiler he would play with both party's chances. The campaigns headed into Election day, unprepared for what was to come.

Bush v. Obama v. Paul:
Bush: 44%
Obama: 44%
Paul: 11%

Election Night:
Obama/Clark:
Bush/Dole:
Paul/Barr:

"Welcome to Election Night and what a night this will be. A three man race between Barack Obama, the Democrat, George W. Bush, the Republican and Ron Paul the Libertarian. Bush looking to pull a Grover Cleveland and win the White House again after loosing the popular vote in his reelection in 2004. For Barack Obama this night is about history. Will he break through the racial barriers and become this nations' first African American President? And Ron Paul, the third party candidate. He's polling last in the polls, but his effect on this race is divided. Will he draw more votes from Democrats or Republicans?"

"And we have our first projection of the evening. Senator Barack Obama will carry the Democratic stronghold of Vermont.
Obama: 49.8%
Paul: 25.7%
Bush: 23.4%

Certainly the takeaway of this state is that Ron Paul is finishing second, ahead of Bush. Now this is still early and the numbers could change, but Paul at this point finishes second to Obama in Vermont, perhaps a sign of things to come?

Obama/Clark: 3
Bush/Dole: 0
Paul/Barr: 0

At this point we cannot make a projection in South Carolina. Should we make anything of this? Certainly this is troubling?"

"Bush is only ahead by three in South Carolina. It is early, but in a traditional Republican state he should be farther ahead, and the exit polls show a tighter race."

"Well Republicans can breathe a sigh of relief. Bush is the winner in Kentucky."

Bush: 47.6%
Obama: 39.2%
Paul: 12.2%

Bush/Dole: 8
Obama/Clark: 3
Paul/Barr: 0
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« Reply #44 on: May 05, 2012, 12:32:44 pm »
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In 2004, the networks kept North Carolina, Virgnia, and South Carolina in the undecided column for like two hours, even though Bush won them all going away. So, I'm not personally too concerned at this point about South Carolina in this timeline. Please continue the timeline its very good.
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the birth of modern america & onward election Former Vice President Blanche Bruce defeats incumbent President Grover Cleveland in 1904. In an age of unpredictable election outcomes Bruce finds himself reelected in 1908 against an opponent whose name escapes me at the moment. Blanche Bruce served as Vice President under Frederick Douglas whom Cleveland defeated in 1900. His Vice President runs to replace Bruce in 1912.
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« Reply #45 on: May 05, 2012, 04:21:27 pm »
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"The polls have just closed in West Virginia and we cannot project a winner at this time. It is Bush with a narrow lead, but Obama is close."

"So what is this night? What are we going to say at this time tomorrow?"

"It's too early to make that judgement. Obama could win, he seems poised to do so, but Bush could very well pull the Cleveland strategy. You'll notice in the final days he has been playing ads linking Obama and Kerry; trying very much to create the perception that they are responsible entirely for the economic crisis."

States too close to call:
Indiana
North Carolina
Ohio
Georgia
Virginia
South Carolina
West Virginia

"Since we are still waiting for numbers, how would night be if Kerry were the Democratic nominee? He's sitting now on a 37 percent approval rating."

"I would say we'd still be in the same place. We forget but Bush is still seen as a polarizing figure in American politics."

"We can at this time project that George Bush has won Indiana, albeit narrowly."

"You know when Republicans can barley hold Indiana, there is a problem."

Bush: 49.0%
Obama: 40.5%
Paul: 9.5%

Bush/Dole: 19
Obama/Clark: 3
Paul/Barr: 0

8:00
"It is eight o'clock on the east coast and we have a series of projections to make at this time."

:For Pres-- Sen. Barack Obama, we project the states of: Maryland, Delaware, Massachusetts, Connecticut, Illinois and the District of Columbia."

Obama: 50.0%
Bush: 39.6%
Paul: 9.0%

Obama: 50.4%
Bush: 39.2%
Paul: 9.0%

Obama: 52.4%
Bush: 37.2%
Paul: 9.4%

Obama: 50.4%
Bush: 39.2%
Paul: 9.0%

Obama: 54.4%
Bush: 35.0%
Paul: 9.6%

Obama: 70.4%
Bush: 18.4%
Paul: 10.2%

"For Mr. Bush, tonight we project the state of Oklahoma, another GOP favorite."

"Though it looks like Paul did some effect with Bush's numbers in the state. He won the state with over sixty percent four years ago and tonight is barely over fifty."

Bush: 51.1%
Obama: 36.0%
Paul: 12.9%

"We can also project that the former President has won Tennessee, Alabama and Mississippi, so it looks like Ron Paul is not causing too much damage for the Republican ticket in traditional Republican states."

"The real question will be in the battlegrounds like Ohio, Pennsylvania and Florida."

Bush: 52.7%
Obama: 35.0%
Paul: 12.9%


Bush: 53.1%
Obama: 34.0%
Paul: 12.9%


Bush: 51.1%
Obama: 39.0%
Paul: 9.9%

Obama/Clark: 59
Bush/Dole: 52
Paul/Barr: 0

States too Close to call:
Missouri
New Hampshire
South Carolina
Florida
West Virginia
Virginia
North Carolina
Ohio
Maine
Georgia
Pennsylvania

"We can now project that Bush has won West Virginia. West Virginia goes for Bush."

Bush: 48.1%
Obama: 42.0%
Paul: 8.9%

Obama/Clark: 59
Bush/Dole: 57
Paul/Barr: 0

"The two are neck and neck in the electoral vote, but a bunch of states still remain undecided, all of them, save for Pennsylvania, Maine and New Hampshire were carried by Mr. Bush."

"In Maine it is Obama with a lead, followed by and Paul in a distant third. New Hampshire it is quite the opposite. Bush has a narrow lead, followed by Obama and Paul."

New Hampshire:
Bush: 44.9%
Obama: 38.8%
Paul: 15.3%

"Save for Vermont, Paul has yet to crack the twenty percent mark, which illustrates either his support has been overestimated, or Vermont was a fluke state, because surely he should be doing better in New Hampshire."

"Well looking at the numbers in Vermont as we speak, it appears that Bush will finish second, with twenty-six percent of the vote and Paul with twenty-two percent."

"Looking at Ohio, the battleground state that decided the election for Kerry in 2004, is an essential tie tonight between Bush and Obama."

Ohio:
Obama: 47.0%
Bush: 46.6%
Paul: 5.4%

"We can now project that Obama wins Maine. The state of Maine has gone for Barack Obama."

Obama: 49.0%
Bush: 41.8%
Paul: 8.2%

Obama/Clark: 63
Bush/Dole: 57
Paul/Barr: 0

Georgia:
Bush: 44.5%
Obama: 42.9%
Paul: 11.0%
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« Reply #46 on: May 05, 2012, 09:00:14 pm »
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Win or loose, Bush wins Florida. His brother is former governor, democrats nationally are not doing great, and of the big three swing states, Florida favors Bush the most. And in real life, Obama beat McCain by only two in Florida.

And Indiana is a good sign. I think Bush will also win all three Virgnia, North Carolina, South Carolina, and hold Colorado. The Bush name, popular or not, is a house hold name running against a senator that people don't know and some of his past raises red flags. The battle for the White House might be Ohio and New Hampshire.

And I love Bush so I have a lot to say. I think John Sununu survives even if Bush looses New Hampshire. I think the republicans hold Oregon, but maybe democrats still pick up Alaska. Depends on if the scandal on Stevens still comes up or not. Call me crazy, even if Bush looses New Mexico, I think the republican might upset the democrat there. That would be a closely watched race. And whose running against Warner? If Allen survived 2006, I've heard from a lot of places that John Warner would have run again.
« Last Edit: May 05, 2012, 09:06:14 pm by GPORTER »Logged

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the birth of modern america & onward election Former Vice President Blanche Bruce defeats incumbent President Grover Cleveland in 1904. In an age of unpredictable election outcomes Bruce finds himself reelected in 1908 against an opponent whose name escapes me at the moment. Blanche Bruce served as Vice President under Frederick Douglas whom Cleveland defeated in 1900. His Vice President runs to replace Bruce in 1912.
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« Reply #47 on: May 05, 2012, 09:21:16 pm »
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Paul would probably hurt Bush in the Mountain West significantly, maybe enough to flip Montana and the Dakotas.
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« Reply #48 on: May 05, 2012, 10:19:08 pm »
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Paul would probably hurt Bush in the Mountain West significantly, maybe enough to flip Montana and the Dakotas.

If that happens, Bush needs one of the great lake states and maybe Pennsylvania.
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the birth of modern america & onward election Former Vice President Blanche Bruce defeats incumbent President Grover Cleveland in 1904. In an age of unpredictable election outcomes Bruce finds himself reelected in 1908 against an opponent whose name escapes me at the moment. Blanche Bruce served as Vice President under Frederick Douglas whom Cleveland defeated in 1900. His Vice President runs to replace Bruce in 1912.
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« Reply #49 on: May 06, 2012, 08:42:59 am »
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"We are back tonight, with another projection in the Presidential race. The state of South Carolina has gone for Mr Bush.

Bush: 47.0%
Obama: 42.4%
Paul: 9.6%

Bush/Dole: 65
Obama/Clark: 63
Paul/Barr:

"Bush now takes a small lead in the electoral vote, but still many states remain undecided."

"Bush needs Virginia and North Carolina at least. Florida looks pretty solid, but the previous two mentioned are critical to Bush if he has any chance to win the White House again."

"We have another projection to make: Bush will carry the state of Georgia."

"We should note that this is the home state of Ron Paul's running mate Bob Barr, but his presence on the ticket was not enough to swing the Republican stronghold in either direction."

Bush: 46.5%
Obama: 43.1%
Paul: 9.4%

Bush/Dole: 80
Obama/Clark: 63
Paul/Barr: 0

9:00

"It is nine o'clock here on the east coast and we have move projections to make: We can project that Senator Obama has won the state of Rhode Island, Minnesota, the state that hosted the Republican Convention, New York and New Jersey."

Obama: 51.9%
Bush: 37.4%
Paul: 9.7%

Obama: 50.9%
Bush: 34.2%
Paul: 13.9%

Obama: 52.8%
Bush: 36.6%
Paul: 9.6%

Obama: 51.9%
Bush: 37.4%
Paul: 9.7%

"For Bush we can project the state of Louisiana, the state of Texas, his home state and that of Ron Paul, Kansas and Nebraska, but we are only awarding him four of the five delegates at this time."

Bush: 51.0%
Obama: 38.5%
Paul: 9.5%

Bush: 52.5%
Obama: 32.8%
Paul: 13.7%

Bush: 50.5%
Obama: 39.1%
Paul: 9.4%

Bush: 49.5%
Obama: 38.1%
Paul: 11.4%

Bush/Dole: 133
Obama/Clark: 123
Paul/Clark: 0

"As we look to Colorado, the Dakotas, New Mexico and Arizona, we'll be able to see where Paul's real strength lies and if his presence is able to flip one of these states into the Obama' column tonight."

"You know thing we haven't discussed tonight is the Reverend Wright story and it's effect on the election."

"The Bush campaign did make an issue of it when it first broke back after the Convention, but it did seem to go away. The argument the Bush campaign has been pushing is can Obama be trusted. Is he ready."

"Hold that thought, two more projections for the Presidency: Arkansas and Missouri have finally gone for Bush tonight."

Bush: 46.5%
Obama: 45.1%
Paul: 7.4%

Bush: 48.5%
Obama: 41.1%
Paul: 9.4%

Bush/Dole: 150
Obama/Clark: 123
Paul/Clark: 0

"The Bush campaign can breathe a sign of relief tonight, especially with Missouri, though it was close. 46 to 45."

"The states we are watching now are Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin, North Carolina, Virginia, Florida, Colorado and New Mexico. These states hold the key to who will win the White House."

"We can now project that Sen. Obama has won the state of Pennsylvania."

Obama: 45.8%
Bush: 43.6%
Paul: 9.6%

Bush/Dole: 150
Obama/Clark: 144
Paul/Barr: 0

"That's a big one to fall tonight."

"Indeed, but I don't think it's enough to hurt the Bush campaign. You remember Republican have relentlessly tried to recapture Pennsylvania, after Bill Clinton won it in 1992, and to no avail. The states to watch are the ones we discussed, especially Ohio, which now is essentially tied."

Ohio:
Obama: 45.8%
Bush: 45.2%
Paul/Barr: 8.0%

"It's like four years ago, all over again."

"This is the battleground. Whoever wins it tonight will be the next President of the United States."

"And at this time we are projecting the state of Florida for Bush."

Bush: 47.5%
Obama: 44.1%
Paul: 6.4%

"The Bush name is strong there, so it is no surprise that he carried it again."

"Let's now look at the states still in question."

New Hampshire:
Bush: 42.8%
Obama: 40.9%
Paul: 15.3%

Virginia:
Bush: 46.8%
Obama: 42.4%
Paul: 9.8%

North Carolina:
Bush: 47.8%
Obama: 41.4%
Paul: 8.8%

Colorado:
Bush: 46.1%
Obama: 45.9%
Paul: 7.0%

Michigan:
Bush: 47.6%
Obama: 46.7%
Paul: 5.1%

"Obama looks poised to take Colorado, as it looks like we're seeing where Paul can cause some damage to the GOP."

"We can now project that Wisconsin will go for Obama. Repeat, Obama will win Wisconsin."

Obama: 45.9%
Bush: 43.4%
Paul: 9.7%
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