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|-+  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
| |-+  Election What-ifs? (Moderators: Bacon King, Dallasfan65)
| | |-+  The Kerry Problem
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Question: What prospective timeline would you like to see?
2008: Primary Challenge   -11 (50%)
2008: Condi Runs   -9 (40.9%)
1996: Clinton's 2nd Try   -2 (9.1%)
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Total Voters: 22

Author Topic: The Kerry Problem  (Read 3834 times)
NHI
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« Reply #50 on: May 06, 2012, 08:43:20 am »
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Bush/Dole: 177
Obama/Clark: 154
Paul/Barr: 0

"We're going to take a short break and --"

"Hold on, we can project that Bush will hold the state of North Carolina."

North Carolina
Bush: 48.8%
Obama: 42.5%
Paul: 7.7%

Bush/Dole: 192
Obama/Clark: 154
Paul/Barr: 0
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‎"Our president thinks this country's in decline. It is if he's president. It's not if I'm president." -- Mitt Romney

GPORTER
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« Reply #51 on: May 06, 2012, 08:13:01 pm »
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Bush will win Virgnia though it will be the closest vote there since 1976 or 1992. But, any other republican might not, but Bush holds Virgnia.
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Just for the fun of it, summer 2014 reading: I am taking college courses both in July & did in May. I have read all of the material for those. Besides that I read Gifted Hands: The Ben Carson Story & the book on Kennedy & Nixon by Chris Matthews both cover to cover & before that One Last Kiss: The Chris Coleman Story. All very informative & entertaining books. I have started Rendevouz With Destiny By Craig Shirley.
NHI
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« Reply #52 on: May 06, 2012, 10:02:54 pm »
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"At this time we can finally project that Bush wins Virginia, albeit, by a narrow margin."

"Truly a nail biter there, I thought it might go for Obama tonight, but Bush holds onto it narrowly. That now puts his electoral total over 200 electoral votes, so things are starting to change."

"Yes, but all eyes remain on Ohio and Michigan it seems like too."

Bush: 45.4%
Obama: 43.8%
Paul: 9.8%

"And we can now project that Bush has won New Hampshire. New Hampshire votes for the Republican ticket, despite voting for Kerry in 2004."

Bush: 43.4%
Obama: 40.8%
Paul: 14.8%

"Another close one for Bush. I guess the question we have to ask ourselves is, are we seeing the start of a trend?"

"Yes and no. A lot is incumbent upon Ohio, which is leaning towards Obama, as well as some states in the west and northwest like Colorado, North Dakota and New Mexico."

"In those three states you've just mentioned, Paul seems to be having a strong effect, and thus is hurting Bush."

Bush/Dole: 209
Obama/Clark: 154
Paul/Barr: 0

"Looking at the map and some of the figures, Colorado could go either way at this point, and so could Montana."

"Hold that, we are now projecting the state of New Mexico for Obama. Sen. Obama will win the state of New Mexico."

Obama: 48.9%
Bush: 34.5%
Paul: 15.6%

"A needed win for Obama. So looking at the map how does he put together a winning set. Is Ohio part of it?"

"I think he needs Ohio, but he might be able to pull it off without it. Bush needs it, no Republican has won the White House without it."

"And we can now project, just to add that Bush has won Wyoming. There wasn't much concern, but Ron Paul did perform better than expected.


Bush: 52.4%
Obama: 29.8%
Paul: 16.8%

Too Close to Call:
Ohio:
Obama: 46.1%
Bush: 45.7%
Paul: 7.2%

Michigan:
Bush: 47.0%
Obama: 47.0%
Paul. 5.0%

Colorado:
Obama: 46.0%
Bush: 44.8%
Paul: 8.2%

Arizona:
Bush: 46.0%
Obama: 43.8%
Paul: 9.2%

Montana:
Obama: 44.1%
Bush: 43.4%
Paul: 11.5%

Iowa:
Obama: 47.9%
Bush: 42.6%
Paul: 8.5%

South Dakota:
Bush: 46.3%
Obama: 40.0%
Paul: 12.7%

"And we can now project that Republican stronghold of Utah will go for Bush."

Bush: 61.4%
Obama: 25.8%
Paul: 11.8%


Bush/Dole: 217
Obama/Clark: 159
Paul/Barr: 0

"And it appears we can make another major projection. Sen. Obama has won the state of Iowa, making this the second Bush state he has taken from 2004."

Obama: 48.0%
Bush: 41.9%
Paul: 9.1%

Bush/Dole: 217
Obama/Clark: 166
Paul/Barr: 0
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‎"Our president thinks this country's in decline. It is if he's president. It's not if I'm president." -- Mitt Romney

NHI
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« Reply #53 on: May 07, 2012, 09:32:42 am »
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"We project that Barack Obama has won the second congressional district in Nebraska."

Obama: 43.7%
Bush: 43.0%
Paul: 12.3%

"Certainly, no one saw that coming."

"I think as these western states continue to fall, we're going to see the impact of Paul's presence on the ballot. Especially in Colorado, Montana, Nevada and North Dakota."

"And it is apparent now that we can project Bush the winner in Arizona."

"I thought Obama might take it tonight."

Bush: 45.6%
Obama: 43.9%
Paul: 9.5%

"The three states I'm watching now are Ohio, Michigan and Colorado. The direction they go will be critical in who becomes the next President of the United States."

"Hold that thought, because we have a major projection to make. The AP is calling Ohio, other networks are calling for Ohio and based on our data we feel comfortable with the projection. We are now projecting that Barack Obama will win the state of Ohio."

"It's over."

Obama: 46.5%
Bush: 45.7%
Paul: 6.8%

Bush/Dole: 227
Obama/Clark: 187
Paul/Barr: 0

11:00

"And we now project the state of California and Hawaii for Obama."

Obama: 51.5%
Bush: 33.7%
Paul: 13.8%

Obama: 57.5%
Bush: 34.7%
Paul: 6.8%

Obama/Clark: 246
Bush/Dole: 227
Paul/Barr: 0

"Obama holds a small lead in the electoral vote, but states are still undecided. Namely, Colorado, Montana, North Dakota, Idaho, Oregon, Washington, Nevada and Michigan."

"The race is tightening in Colorado. I thought it might go for Obama, but it appears Bush is not giving up without a fight. Now with ninety three percent of the vote counted."

Colorado:
Obama: 45.5%
Bush: 45.2%
Paul: 8.3%

Nevada:
Bush: 43.7%
Obama: 42.1%
Paul: 13.2%

Idaho:
Bush: 38.0%
Paul: 30.8%
Obama 29.5%

"Quite an impressive margin for Paul in Idaho."

"Indeed, but we are projecting that state and the state of South Dakota for Bush."

Bush: 38.0%
Obama: 30.8%
Paul: 29.5%


Bush: 44.6%
Obama: 39.9%
Paul: 14.5%


Obama/Clark: 246
Bush/Dole: 234
Paul/Barr: 0

"We can now make another major projection. The state of Montana has been won by Barack Obama."

Obama: 44.5%
Bush: 43.9%
Paul: 10.6%

"And we can we call North Dakota for Bush. It was a tossup, but Bush wins it again tonight."

Bush: 39.6%
Obama: 35.9%
Paul: 23.5%

Obama/Clark: 249
Bush/Dole: 237
Paul/Barr: 0

"We can now project that Nevada will once again go for George W. Bush."

Bush: 44.0%
Obama: 42.9%
Paul: 12.9%


Obama/Clark: 249
Bush/Dole: 242
Paul/Barr: 0

12:25

"And so goes Oregon, for Barack Obama."

"That now puts him three delegates shy of becoming President-Elect of the United States."

"All the focus remains on Colorado and Michigan where the two candidates are essentially tied, with almost all of the vote counted."

"Are the reports true about both campaigns looking into recounts?"

"Not at this time."

Colorado:
Bush: 45.54%
Obama: 45.49%
Paul: 7.97%

Michigan:
Bush: 47.0%
Obama: 46.7%
Paul: 5.3%
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‎"Our president thinks this country's in decline. It is if he's president. It's not if I'm president." -- Mitt Romney

adracman42
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« Reply #54 on: May 07, 2012, 02:05:00 pm »
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Paul's presence sure makes for a weird map.
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coyolxauhqui
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« Reply #55 on: May 07, 2012, 02:27:16 pm »
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"And so goes Oregon, for Barack Obama."

"That now puts him three delegates shy of becoming President-Elect of the United States."
Only if Washington is also projected.
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NHI
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« Reply #56 on: May 07, 2012, 04:02:22 pm »
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"And so goes Oregon, for Barack Obama."

"That now puts him three delegates shy of becoming President-Elect of the United States."
Only if Washington is also projected.

I meant to put that. Washington was projected for Obama.
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‎"Our president thinks this country's in decline. It is if he's president. It's not if I'm president." -- Mitt Romney

Jerseyrules
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« Reply #57 on: May 07, 2012, 07:39:51 pm »
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Ugh I really don't know who of the top 2 to support.  Give Paul the deciding EVs!
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Drink Too Much:
http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=147022.0

Skyrim now, Skyrim tomorrow, Morrowind Forever!

An Empire of Stars and Stripes:

http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=156974.0

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« Reply #58 on: May 07, 2012, 09:46:46 pm »
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Yeah...this could be interesting if Paul takes Alaska and Bush takes Michigan.
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the result is a sense that we were told to attend a lavish dinner party that was going to be wonderful and by the time we got there, all the lobster and steak had been eaten, a fight had broken out, the police had been called and all that was left was warm beer and chips.
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« Reply #59 on: May 07, 2012, 10:18:35 pm »
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I can hear Karl Rove saying, "we can still do it without Ohio."
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Just for the fun of it, summer 2014 reading: I am taking college courses both in July & did in May. I have read all of the material for those. Besides that I read Gifted Hands: The Ben Carson Story & the book on Kennedy & Nixon by Chris Matthews both cover to cover & before that One Last Kiss: The Chris Coleman Story. All very informative & entertaining books. I have started Rendevouz With Destiny By Craig Shirley.
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« Reply #60 on: May 08, 2012, 07:30:35 am »
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"Michigan is decided. George W. Bush has carried the state of Michigan."

"What an upset."

Bush: 47.2%
Obama: 46.7%
Paul: 5.1%

Obama/Clark: 267
Bush/Dole: 259
Paul/Barr: 0

"So Michigan goes for Bush, Colorado is still undecided. Bush is still holding a narrow lead, but it is too close to call."

"We are getting word from the Bush campaign that no votes will be contested, at this time."

"Clearly the Bush campaign is waiting on Colorado. Even if it goes for him Bush will only have 271 electoral votes, the same total he received eight years ago."

"Wow. I'm just looking at the map and cannot believe it. Montana for the Democrat and Michigan for the Republican."

"And Ron Paul, while he ha caused some problems he did not take a state."

"Well, the polls have just closed in Alaska and we cannot, repeat, cannot project a winner."

"Oh boy."

"The Bush campaign is certainly did not expect this."

"Ron Paul is in second, but he is surging."

Alaska:
Bush: 35.2%
Paul: 35.0%
Obama: 29.8%

"We are looking at the possibility that Ron Paul could end up winning Alaska, and thus take away three delegates from Bush. Delegates that he'll need should he take Colorado."

"If Bush wins Colorado, this election goes to the House."

"It's 2000 on steroids."

Colorado:
Bush: 45.55%
Obama: 45.44%
Paul: 8.01%

"The polls have shifted in Alaska, Ron Paul is now leading Bush in Alaska."

Paul: 35.7%
Bush: 35.4%
Obama: 27.9%

"Hope is alive for the Paul campaign tonight."

"Hold on, we can now project that Bush has won the state of Colorado. Colorado will remain in the Republican column tonight."

Bush: 45.6%
Obama: 45.4%
Paul: 8.0%

"Alaska is the state will decide whether Bush is elected President, or if this election goes to the House."

"I can only imagine people's reactions later this morning..."

2:54 AM

"We are now able to make a projection in the race for the White House. Congressman Ron Paul, Libertarian Candidate has won the state of Alaska. He wins Alaska, and no candidate receives the needed delegates to become President of the United States."

Paul: 36.0%
Bush: 35.9%
Obama: 26.2%

Bush/Dole: 268
Obama/Clark: 267
Paul/Barr: 3

"We are now getting word that the Obama campaign is challenging the results in Colorado and Michigan, and the Bush campaign is challenging the results in Alaska, so is election over?"

"Well, the results in Colorado could shift in Obama's favor, but I don't think so. The only recount that could shift the election is Alaska, and if shifts for Bush, then he's President again."

Popular Vote:
Bush/Dole: 41.7%
Obama/Clark: 40.0%
Paul/Barr: 17.3%

Headlines:
Politico: No Winner!
New York Times: Deja Vu: Popular Vote Winner, no Electoral Vote one
USA Today: "Here we go again."
New York Post: The Upsetter: Paul takes Alaska
Boston Globe: Bush: 268, Obama: 267, Paul: 3

Recount Results:

Colorado:
Bush: 45.4%
Obama: 45.2%
Paul: 8.5%

Michigan:
Bush: 47.9%
Obama: 46.4%
Paul: 4.7%

Alaska:
Paul: 35.95%
Paul: 35.92%
Obama: 27.13%

Headlines:
Politico: To the House!
Wall Street Journal: The Houses will Decide the Race

Obama and Bush meet at the White House with Pres. Kerry.

The Senate Selects: Clark, 52-48

The Next Vice President

The House Vote:
Bush: 28
Obama: 22
Paul: 0

Bush, the 45th President of the United States
President-Elect: Bush

Bush takes the oath of office, four years after leaving office.

Bush Approval Rating: Jan. 20, 2009
Approve: 50%
Disapprove: 44%
Undecided: 5%

Epilogue: Four Years Later

Obama/Clinton: 285 (50.9%)
Romney/Daniels: 253 (48.3%
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‎"Our president thinks this country's in decline. It is if he's president. It's not if I'm president." -- Mitt Romney

Jerseyrules
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« Reply #61 on: May 11, 2012, 08:29:50 pm »
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Interesting because Kerry gets to replace Rehnquist and O'Conner but W. gets to pick Stevens' and Souter's successors.  And interesting map as well
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Drink Too Much:
http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=147022.0

Skyrim now, Skyrim tomorrow, Morrowind Forever!

An Empire of Stars and Stripes:

http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=156974.0

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FOOL!  I AM Cathcon!

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« Reply #62 on: May 11, 2012, 10:23:24 pm »
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Or Stevens and Souter decide to hold it out a bit longer. Souter is more likely.
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Jerseyrules
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« Reply #63 on: May 13, 2012, 03:11:10 pm »
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Or Stevens and Souter decide to hold it out a bit longer. Souter is more likely.

And O'Conner sticks it out too then (probably)
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Drink Too Much:
http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=147022.0

Skyrim now, Skyrim tomorrow, Morrowind Forever!

An Empire of Stars and Stripes:

http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=156974.0

Quote
FOOL!  I AM Cathcon!

Endorsements:
Governor: Brown (CA), Corbett (PA), Scott (FL)
House: Emken (CA)
Other: Rob McCoy (CA Assembly)
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Angry_Weasel
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« Reply #64 on: May 13, 2012, 04:28:52 pm »
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...but with a D VP and a D senate, the SCOTUS picks of Bush will be to the left of Alito and Roberts.
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the result is a sense that we were told to attend a lavish dinner party that was going to be wonderful and by the time we got there, all the lobster and steak had been eaten, a fight had broken out, the police had been called and all that was left was warm beer and chips.
- OnThe End of The End of History
Jerseyrules
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« Reply #65 on: May 13, 2012, 05:34:22 pm »
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...but with a D VP and a D senate, the SCOTUS picks of Bush will be to the left of Alito and Roberts.

Same goes for Kerry's picks in the GOP-controlled lame-duck congress of 2006 Wink
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Drink Too Much:
http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=147022.0

Skyrim now, Skyrim tomorrow, Morrowind Forever!

An Empire of Stars and Stripes:

http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=156974.0

Quote
FOOL!  I AM Cathcon!

Endorsements:
Governor: Brown (CA), Corbett (PA), Scott (FL)
House: Emken (CA)
Other: Rob McCoy (CA Assembly)
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