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|-+  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
| |-+  Election What-ifs? (Moderator: dallasfan65)
| | |-+  The Kerry Problem
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Question: What prospective timeline would you like to see?
2008: Primary Challenge   -11 (50%)
2008: Condi Runs   -9 (40.9%)
1996: Clinton's 2nd Try   -2 (9.1%)
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Total Voters: 22

Author Topic: The Kerry Problem  (Read 5890 times)
I Can't Believe It's Not Murder!
Angry_Weasel
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« Reply #50 on: May 07, 2012, 09:46:46 pm »
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Yeah...this could be interesting if Paul takes Alaska and Bush takes Michigan.
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Effective policing requires to know when backing down is in the best interest of public safety.  By all accounts, the culture of the Ferguson Police was ignorant of that fact, and instead treated Cartman of South Park as a role model for how to be a police officer.
NHI
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« Reply #51 on: May 08, 2012, 07:30:35 am »
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"Michigan is decided. George W. Bush has carried the state of Michigan."

"What an upset."

Bush: 47.2%
Obama: 46.7%
Paul: 5.1%

Obama/Clark: 267
Bush/Dole: 259
Paul/Barr: 0

"So Michigan goes for Bush, Colorado is still undecided. Bush is still holding a narrow lead, but it is too close to call."

"We are getting word from the Bush campaign that no votes will be contested, at this time."

"Clearly the Bush campaign is waiting on Colorado. Even if it goes for him Bush will only have 271 electoral votes, the same total he received eight years ago."

"Wow. I'm just looking at the map and cannot believe it. Montana for the Democrat and Michigan for the Republican."

"And Ron Paul, while he ha caused some problems he did not take a state."

"Well, the polls have just closed in Alaska and we cannot, repeat, cannot project a winner."

"Oh boy."

"The Bush campaign is certainly did not expect this."

"Ron Paul is in second, but he is surging."

Alaska:
Bush: 35.2%
Paul: 35.0%
Obama: 29.8%

"We are looking at the possibility that Ron Paul could end up winning Alaska, and thus take away three delegates from Bush. Delegates that he'll need should he take Colorado."

"If Bush wins Colorado, this election goes to the House."

"It's 2000 on steroids."

Colorado:
Bush: 45.55%
Obama: 45.44%
Paul: 8.01%

"The polls have shifted in Alaska, Ron Paul is now leading Bush in Alaska."

Paul: 35.7%
Bush: 35.4%
Obama: 27.9%

"Hope is alive for the Paul campaign tonight."

"Hold on, we can now project that Bush has won the state of Colorado. Colorado will remain in the Republican column tonight."

Bush: 45.6%
Obama: 45.4%
Paul: 8.0%

"Alaska is the state will decide whether Bush is elected President, or if this election goes to the House."

"I can only imagine people's reactions later this morning..."

2:54 AM

"We are now able to make a projection in the race for the White House. Congressman Ron Paul, Libertarian Candidate has won the state of Alaska. He wins Alaska, and no candidate receives the needed delegates to become President of the United States."

Paul: 36.0%
Bush: 35.9%
Obama: 26.2%

Bush/Dole: 268
Obama/Clark: 267
Paul/Barr: 3

"We are now getting word that the Obama campaign is challenging the results in Colorado and Michigan, and the Bush campaign is challenging the results in Alaska, so is election over?"

"Well, the results in Colorado could shift in Obama's favor, but I don't think so. The only recount that could shift the election is Alaska, and if shifts for Bush, then he's President again."

Popular Vote:
Bush/Dole: 41.7%
Obama/Clark: 40.0%
Paul/Barr: 17.3%

Headlines:
Politico: No Winner!
New York Times: Deja Vu: Popular Vote Winner, no Electoral Vote one
USA Today: "Here we go again."
New York Post: The Upsetter: Paul takes Alaska
Boston Globe: Bush: 268, Obama: 267, Paul: 3

Recount Results:

Colorado:
Bush: 45.4%
Obama: 45.2%
Paul: 8.5%

Michigan:
Bush: 47.9%
Obama: 46.4%
Paul: 4.7%

Alaska:
Paul: 35.95%
Paul: 35.92%
Obama: 27.13%

Headlines:
Politico: To the House!
Wall Street Journal: The Houses will Decide the Race

Obama and Bush meet at the White House with Pres. Kerry.

The Senate Selects: Clark, 52-48

The Next Vice President

The House Vote:
Bush: 28
Obama: 22
Paul: 0

Bush, the 45th President of the United States
President-Elect: Bush

Bush takes the oath of office, four years after leaving office.

Bush Approval Rating: Jan. 20, 2009
Approve: 50%
Disapprove: 44%
Undecided: 5%

Epilogue: Four Years Later

Obama/Clinton: 285 (50.9%)
Romney/Daniels: 253 (48.3%
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Jerseyrules
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« Reply #52 on: May 11, 2012, 08:29:50 pm »
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Interesting because Kerry gets to replace Rehnquist and O'Conner but W. gets to pick Stevens' and Souter's successors.  And interesting map as well
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Drink Too Much:
http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=147022.0

An Empire of Stars and Stripes:

http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=156974.0

Quote
FOOL!  I AM Cathcon!

Endorsements:
President: Chris Christie
Senate:
Governor:

------------------------------



[img]https://s-media-cache-ak0.pinimg.com/474x/4a/6a/03/4a6a039f4e813796b7731510707a5e4b.jpg[
MRX
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« Reply #53 on: May 11, 2012, 10:23:24 pm »
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Or Stevens and Souter decide to hold it out a bit longer. Souter is more likely.
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Jerseyrules
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« Reply #54 on: May 13, 2012, 03:11:10 pm »
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Or Stevens and Souter decide to hold it out a bit longer. Souter is more likely.

And O'Conner sticks it out too then (probably)
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Drink Too Much:
http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=147022.0

An Empire of Stars and Stripes:

http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=156974.0

Quote
FOOL!  I AM Cathcon!

Endorsements:
President: Chris Christie
Senate:
Governor:

------------------------------



[img]https://s-media-cache-ak0.pinimg.com/474x/4a/6a/03/4a6a039f4e813796b7731510707a5e4b.jpg[
I Can't Believe It's Not Murder!
Angry_Weasel
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« Reply #55 on: May 13, 2012, 04:28:52 pm »
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...but with a D VP and a D senate, the SCOTUS picks of Bush will be to the left of Alito and Roberts.
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Effective policing requires to know when backing down is in the best interest of public safety.  By all accounts, the culture of the Ferguson Police was ignorant of that fact, and instead treated Cartman of South Park as a role model for how to be a police officer.
Jerseyrules
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« Reply #56 on: May 13, 2012, 05:34:22 pm »
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...but with a D VP and a D senate, the SCOTUS picks of Bush will be to the left of Alito and Roberts.

Same goes for Kerry's picks in the GOP-controlled lame-duck congress of 2006 Wink
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Drink Too Much:
http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=147022.0

An Empire of Stars and Stripes:

http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=156974.0

Quote
FOOL!  I AM Cathcon!

Endorsements:
President: Chris Christie
Senate:
Governor:

------------------------------



[img]https://s-media-cache-ak0.pinimg.com/474x/4a/6a/03/4a6a039f4e813796b7731510707a5e4b.jpg[
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