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| |-+  Congressional Elections (Moderator: Joe Republic)
| | |-+  JLT's House Predication Thread, 2012: Redistricting Apocalypse Edition
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Author Topic: JLT's House Predication Thread, 2012: Redistricting Apocalypse Edition  (Read 1878 times)
Torie
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« Reply #25 on: May 02, 2012, 07:04:26 pm »
Ignore

Not agreeing:

PA-08: Fitzpatrick is a Tossup.  


No. His opponent had an impression fundraising quarter but she isn't top tier. How can you say this isn't at least Lean Fitz/GOP?

Ditto. Tilt at least. Oh, I see I have it "lean" too. It's PVI is dead even, and Fitz is the incumbent, and the expectation is for about an even macro environment (Bucks isn't the best place in the world for Obama anyway), so if you give the incumbent a 3% tailwind, that equals lean overall here. Fitz baby at least meets the "reasonably competent" criteria. He is no Marino, or Schmidt or Akin or one of those types. He tends to his knitting. Bucks isn't the best place in the world for Obama anyway. Bucks trended 4% Pub in 2008, while Chester down the road trended 4% in the opposite direction. Bucks is kind of a rogue county in the Dem trending suburban Philly metro area.

« Last Edit: May 02, 2012, 07:10:51 pm by Torie »Logged

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