JLT's House Predication Thread, 2012: Redistricting Apocalypse Edition (user search)
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  JLT's House Predication Thread, 2012: Redistricting Apocalypse Edition (search mode)
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Author Topic: JLT's House Predication Thread, 2012: Redistricting Apocalypse Edition  (Read 5519 times)
Sam Spade
SamSpade
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« on: April 22, 2012, 09:47:52 AM »

This really reminds me that I need to start formulating my list soon.  A very quick eyeball indicates some disagreements based on my knowledge of the new maps, but I know you tend to weight variables differently than I do.  One of the big ones, I suspect, is that I tend to weight fundraising less in a Presidential year, especially in swing states.
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Sam Spade
SamSpade
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Posts: 27,547


« Reply #1 on: April 22, 2012, 03:08:00 PM »

This really reminds me that I need to start formulating my list soon.  A very quick eyeball indicates some disagreements based on my knowledge of the new maps, but I know you tend to weight variables differently than I do.  One of the big ones, I suspect, is that I tend to weight fundraising less in a Presidential year, especially in swing states.

My biggest problem, I think, is that I tend to be pretty conservative in my ratings, so I miss seats going under. And yeah, the new maps (particularly the California renumbering) are not making my predictions any easier.

Nah, you just have a slight Dem bias, as I have a slight Rep bias, but that is to be expected, and it is not so large as to skew things (we all have a bias, no matter how perfect we think we are).
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