JLT's House Predication Thread, 2012: Redistricting Apocalypse Edition

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I'm curious why most people think Cravaack is a tossup, since the district didn't change much, it hasn't voted for any other Republicans since 1994 at least (and I don't mean for House, I mean for any office), Mitt Romney is an even worse candidate for it than McCain, and he hasn't done anything to endear himself to the area more. Unless they think the rather competitive DFL primary might cause some trouble.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

That's not taking into account the polarization of the district, or that Cravaack has not exactly behaved as a "reasonably competent" incumbent.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Also, Cravaack is from the complete wrong end of the district and declined to open an office in Duluth until late in the game.

That's primarily what I was referring to in regards to him not being a "reasonably competent" incumbent, in addition to him voting the party line agenda. It's tough to imagine many Obama/Cravaack voters unless they're just people really pissed at the DFL candidate.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I suppose the big question is can he get almost 40% in St. Louis County again when Romney might be struggling to break 30%.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Something else to think of, the Duluth media market goes into Wisconsin, so they probably got a lot of coverage of Scott Walker's union battles. That's not exactly going to make most people in the area willing to vote for any Republican, nor is the MN GOP's failed attempt to push a right to work vote.