JLT's House Predication Thread, 2012: Redistricting Apocalypse Edition

[Torie]

I'm curious why most people think Cravaack is a tossup, since the district didn't change much, it hasn't voted for any other Republicans since 1994 at least (and I don't mean for House, I mean for any office), Mitt Romney is an even worse candidate for it than McCain, and he hasn't done anything to endear himself to the area more. Unless they think the rather competitive DFL primary might cause some trouble.

Because the CD has only a .38% Dem PVI from a 2008 baseline, and Cravaack is the incumbent now. A reasonably competent incumbent gets about a 3% tailwind on average. So toss-up seems the right call.

[Torie]

I'm curious why most people think Cravaack is a tossup, since the district didn't change much, it hasn't voted for any other Republicans since 1994 at least (and I don't mean for House, I mean for any office), Mitt Romney is an even worse candidate for it than McCain, and he hasn't done anything to endear himself to the area more. Unless they think the rather competitive DFL primary might cause some trouble.

Because the CD has only a .38% Dem PVI from a 2008 baseline, and Cravaack is the incumbent now. A reasonably competent incumbent gets about a 3% tailwind on average. So toss-up seems the right call.

I dont think the incumbency advantage means much these days.  Look at 2010 when many strong incumbents went down. 

Incumbency still helped the Dems. It was just a wave election.

[Torie]

Also, Cravaack is from the complete wrong end of the district and declined to open an office in Duluth until late in the game.

That's primarily what I was referring to in regards to him not being a "reasonably competent" incumbent, in addition to him voting the party line agenda. It's tough to imagine many Obama/Cravaack voters unless they're just people really pissed at the DFL candidate.

Well I suppose if folks in Duluth think Cravaack is ignoring them that cannot help. My sense is that the CD is trending Pub. Most Congresscritters vote the party line more or less these days, in this hyper-polarized environment, and given the issues in play. Is he reasonably articulate and can explain issues, or is he a beta brain?

Anyway, as Sam would say, we shall see. I still think absent more info that tossup is the right call. If the guy had a lot of talent, he would probably have the CD in lockdown, if the General is pretty evenly split between the parties, as I expect.

[Torie]

Not agreeing:

PA-08: Fitzpatrick is a Tossup.  

No. His opponent had an impression fundraising quarter but she isn't top tier. How can you say this isn't at least Lean Fitz/GOP?

Ditto. Tilt at least. Oh, I see I have it "lean" too. It's PVI is dead even, and Fitz is the incumbent, and the expectation is for about an even macro environment (Bucks isn't the best place in the world for Obama anyway), so if you give the incumbent a 3% tailwind, that equals lean overall here. Fitz baby at least meets the "reasonably competent" criteria. He is no Marino, or Schmidt or Akin or one of those types. He tends to his knitting. Bucks isn't the best place in the world for Obama anyway. Bucks trended 4% Pub in 2008, while Chester down the road trended 4% in the opposite direction. Bucks is kind of a rogue county in the Dem trending suburban Philly metro area.