JLT's House Predication Thread, 2012: Redistricting Apocalypse Edition

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Now that redistricting is pretty much over, it's time to make a misguided stab at predicting the House results. Here are my 2008 and 2010 attempts for comparison.

Note: an asterisk (*) denotes an open seat; a caret (^) denotes an incumbent seeking re-election in a new district. Since their numbering systems changed, California, Florida, and New York districts are considered the incumbent's current district if they're substantially the same (I used DKE's breakdowns as a guide). A few seats (like CA-21 and CA-47) are hard to determine, so I decided to label them as essentially held by one party.


Dem-Held Seats

Likely Republican Pickup

*AR-04 (Mike Ross)
*NC-11 (Heath Shuler)
*NC-13 (Brad Miller)
*OK-02 (Dan Boren)
*TX-25 (Lloyd Doggett)

Lean Republican Pickup

GA-12 (John Barrow)
NC-08 (Larry Kissell)
NY-27 (Kathy Hochul)

Tossup

*CA-21 (open, essentially Democratic)
*IN-02 (Joe Donnelly)
IA-03 (Leonard Boswell)
NY-01 (Tim Bishop)
NC-07 (Mike McIntyre)
PA-12 (Jason Altmire/Mark Critz)
RI-01 (David Cicilline)
^UT-04 (Jim Matheson)

Lean Democratic

*CA-47 (open, essentially Democratic)
*CT-05 (Chris Murphy)
*IL-12 (Jerry Costello)
MA-06 (John Tierney)
NY-21 (Bill Owens)
*WA-01 (Jay Inslee)

Likely Democratic

CA-09 (Jerry McNerney)
KY-06 (Ben Chandler)
*NM-01 (Martin Heinrich)

Watch List

CA-03 (John Garamendi)
CA-24 (Lois Capps)
CO-07 (Ed Perlmutter)
CT-04 (Jim Himes)
OR-04 (Pete DeFazio)
WV-03 (Nick Rahall)


Rep-Held Seats

Likely Democratic Pickup

Lean Democratic Pickup

*CA-41 (open, essentially Republican)
*FL-22 (Allen West)
IL-08 (Joe Walsh)
^IL-11 (Judy Biggert)
IL-17 (Bobby Schilling)
MD-06 (Roscoe Bartlett)
NY-24 (Ann Buerkle)

Tossup

*AZ-01 (Paul Gosar)
CA-07 (Dan Lungren)
*CA-26 (Elton Gallegly)
*CA-31 (Jerry Lewis retiring, Gary Miller running here)
CA-52 (Brian Bilbray)
^FL-18 (Allen West)
^IA-04 (Steve King)
IL-10 (Bob Dold)
MI-01 (Dan Benishek)
MN-08 (Chip Cravaack)
NH-02 (Charlie Bass)

Lean Republican

CO-03 (Scott Tipton)
CO-06 (Mike Coffman)
IN-08 (Larry Bucshon)
NH-01 (Frank Guinta)
NY-11 (Michael Grimm)
NY-18 (Nan Hayworth)
NY-19 (Chris Gibson)
OH-06 (Bill Johnson)
OH-16 (Jim Renacci)
TX-23 (Quico Canseco)
WI-07 (Sean Duffy)

Likely Republican

AR-01 (Rick Crawford)
FL-10 (Daniel Webster)
*IL-13 (Tim Johnson)
NV-03 (Joe Heck)
*ND-AL (Rick Berg)
PA-08 (Mike Fitzpatrick)
VA-02 (Scott Rigell)

Watch List

FL-02 (Steve Southerland)
FL-13 (Bill Young)
FL-16 (Vern Buchanan)
FL-26 (David Rivera)
MN-06 (Michele Bachmann)
*MT-AL (Denny Rehberg)
NJ-03 (Jon Runyon)
PA-06 (Jim Gerlach)
WA-03 (Jaime Herrera Beutler)
WI-08 (Reid Ribble)


New Seats

Republican: FL-17, GA-14, SC-07, TX-36, UT-02
Tossup: AZ-09, FL-09, NV-04
Democratic: TX-33, TX-34, TX-35, WA-10


Lost Seats

Republican: IL-16, LA-07, NY-09, OH-07
Tossup: IA-03/04
Democratic: MO-03, OH-10, MA-10, MI-09, NJ-09, NY-22, PA-04

[JohnnyLongtorso]

New Seats
Democratic: TX-33, TX-34, TX-35, WA-10

I really wonder what the Texas house delegation will look like after the next round of redistricting, especially if there is a court drawn map.

Also any reason to watch OR-4? Last I heard it was going to be Defazio vs Robinson again.

Probably not, I just put it on the list since DeFazio had an unexpectedly-close race in 2010.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Any reason why Biggert is in Lean Dem? Any polling from that district yet?

Strong Dem nominee, most of the district is unfamiliar to her, and the parts that are familiar to her won't vote for her.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

This really reminds me that I need to start formulating my list soon.  A very quick eyeball indicates some disagreements based on my knowledge of the new maps, but I know you tend to weight variables differently than I do.  One of the big ones, I suspect, is that I tend to weight fundraising less in a Presidential year, especially in swing states.

My biggest problem, I think, is that I tend to be pretty conservative in my ratings, so I miss seats going under. And yeah, the new maps (particularly the California renumbering) are not making my predictions any easier.

I'm curious why most people think Cravaack is a tossup, since the district didn't change much, it hasn't voted for any other Republicans since 1994 at least (and I don't mean for House, I mean for any office), Mitt Romney is an even worse candidate for it than McCain, and he hasn't done anything to endear himself to the area more. Unless they think the rather competitive DFL primary might cause some trouble.

The DFL hasn't really come up with a great candidate; their best one seems to be Tarryl Clark, who had to move into the district and probably won't get the nomination because the Iron Range is so provincial. I think it's more likely than not Cravaack will lose, just because he's the wrong fit for the district, but I have learned never to underestimate the DFL's penchant for picking the worst possible candidate in their conventions.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Hey Johnny, how would you rate TX-14?

Safe Republican. TX-23 is the only competitive seat in the state.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Hey Johnny, how would you rate TX-14?

Safe Republican. TX-23 is the only competitive seat in the state.

Even with Lampson?

Lampson won under extremely favorable circumstances that won't happen again.