Dutch Government on the verge of falling.

[jeron]

Can any Dutch give me a summary of how disastrous this government has been? I know Wilders is a bigot, but I mean in terms of policy.

Where to start? The problem is that the government had to compromise too much with Wilders and to a lesse extent with the orthodox-christian SGP.

There are clear problems on the housing market and on the labour market, but the government did nothing to adress these problems because the PVV did not want to.
Tougher laws so that 'criminal' immigrants can be sent back to their own country.
Cuts on education for children with sepcial needs.
Cuts on nature and environment and no investment in renewable energy.
Massive cuts and higher VAT on culture because this is a 'leftist' hobby.
The Romanian PM does not want to officially receive the Dutch ambassador, because the Netherlands is the only country in the EU that blocks Romanian entry in 'Schengen'
Wilders made an anti-Polish immigrants website and the government said nothing!

To appease the SGP the liberal VVD:

- retracted its support for a co-sponsored bill to remove blasphemy from criminal law;
- voted against a resolution that would force civil servants to marry same-sex couples;
- rejected an initiative to grant the elderly the right to end their lives if they so desire.

[Vasall des Midas]

Woah, when did we aquire a third Dutch member. Belated welcome to our little planet, Earthling!

[JonBidinger]

I would be very happy to see the horrible Dutch and Czech governments fall in the same week.

[jeron]

Oh, I do hope the party gets absolutely destroyed.

Which would be quite the remarkable thing, from a historical perspective.

Well, in a poll this sunday CDA now has 11 seats (down 3 seats from last week and 10 seats from the last election ). Other parties:

VVD  33
PVV  19
PvdA 24
SP  30
D66  15
GroenLinks 5
CU  6
SGP  3
PvdD  3
50Plus  1

[Vasall des Midas]

VVD (and PVV) is still doing amazingly well when contrasted with CDA... but then I guess the CDA votes need to go somewhere...

[freek]

Poll posted by jeron above is by De Hond/peil.nl

Last Synovate poll (19 April), compared with previous poll of 5 April

VVD 37 (+1)
PvdA 27 (+1)
SP 26 (+1)
PVV 18 (-2)
D66 13 (nc)
CDA 12 (-1)
GroenLinks 5 (-1)
CU 5  (nc)
PvdD 4 (+1)
SGP 2 (nc)
50+ 1 (nc)

[You kip if you want to...]

Poll posted by jeron above is by De Hond/peil.nl

Last Synovate poll (19 April), compared with previous poll of 5 April

VVD 37 (+1)
PvdA 27 (+1)
SP 26 (+1)
PVV 18 (-2)
D66 13 (nc)
CDA 12 (-1)
GroenLinks 5 (-1)
CU 5  (nc)
PvdD 4 (+1)
SGP 2 (nc)
50+ 1 (nc)

So the left wouldn't be able to form government?

[freek]

Poll posted by jeron above is by De Hond/peil.nl

Last Synovate poll (19 April), compared with previous poll of 5 April

VVD 37 (+1)
PvdA 27 (+1)
SP 26 (+1)
PVV 18 (-2)
D66 13 (nc)
CDA 12 (-1)
GroenLinks 5 (-1)
CU 5  (nc)
PvdD 4 (+1)
SGP 2 (nc)
50+ 1 (nc)

So the left wouldn't be able to form government?

Depends on what is considered as 'left'. In the Netherlands this is usually PvdA, SP, D66, GL, CU, PvdD and probably also 50+. These parties would have a majority of 81, but not a stable one I guess.

[Insula Dei]

Would Paars(+) be an option? How does the PvdA feel about the person Rutte?

[freek]

Would Paars(+) be an option? How does the PvdA feel about the person Rutte?

Paars(+) = VVD/PvdA/D66/(GrLinks), for those outside the Netherlands and Flanders.

Yes, that would be an option. PvdA will blame Rutte for his choice for a coalition supported by the PVV, which was already considered a risk in 2010. Also, his cuts in support for subsidized labour for the handicapped (see this youtube video by the FNV, the PvdA-allied trade union: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BSXYTNq2fyw ), and other cuts will be blamed on him.

As a person, he is by all parties considered as sympathetic, and his leadership style as refreshing, also by the PvdA.

[Secretary of Labor Earthling]

In contrast to Balkenende he is.

Paars will be the next government, that is almost a fact. The PVV will not be trusted again and the CDA is in huge trouble and needs time out op power. That will leave either Paars or a government with VVD and SP. And the latter is not realistic.

[Insula Dei]

In contrast to Balkenende he is.

Paars will be the next government, that is almost a fact. The PVV will not be trusted again and the CDA is in huge trouble and needs time out op power. That will leave either Paars or a government with VVD and SP. And the latter is not realistic.

Well, strictly speaking, a VVD-SP coalition would also be Paars.

[RedPrometheus]

How is the relationship between the PvdA and the SP? Would they work together?

[YL]

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2012/apr/23/eurozone-crisis-austerity-dutch-government

Dutch broadcasters are now reporting that PM Mark Rutte will meet with Queen Beatrix at around 2pm local time (1pm BST) to tender his government's resignation.

[freek]

How is the relationship between the PvdA and the SP? Would they work together?

Preferably not, both parties don't get along well. PvdA considers the SP to be a bunch of leftwing populists, and the PvdA is considered to be a neoliberal outfit that lost its touch with the lower incomes by the SP.

[freek]

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2012/apr/23/eurozone-crisis-austerity-dutch-government

Dutch broadcasters are now reporting that PM Mark Rutte will meet with Queen Beatrix at around 2pm local time (1pm BST) to tender his government's resignation.

It is expected that early elections will be held late September / early October. Elections need about 80 days preparation time, which means the earliest date is around July 15. However, usually no elections are held in the July/August period, because of the summer holiday. Earliest possible date afterwards is September 5. State Opening of Parliament is September 18, which makes elections on September 12 and September 19 highly unlikely.

So, my guess is either September 5, September 26 or October 3.

[freek]

VVD, SP and PvdA want elections before the summer, which would mean end of June!

[Insula Dei]

Forging the iron while it's hot, eh?

Is it practically doable to throw together an election before early July? Aren't there any constitutional restraints on the earliest possible date for an election?

[freek]

Forging the iron while it's hot, eh?

Is it practically doable to throw together an election before early July? Aren't there any constitutional restraints on the earliest possible date for an election?

When the Second Chamber is dissolved, Dutch electoral law (Kieswet), dictates that candidate lists are handed on a particular Tuesday 0-40 days afterwards. Elections are 43 days after this Tuesday, on a Wednesday.

Usually the maximum period of 40 days is used between dissolution and handing in of candidate lists. This gives parties time to have a party congress, write an election manifesto, and decide on their candidates. New parties also have time to gather declarations of support (30 per election district, 600 in total). Voters living abroad will have to register to vote by mail.

It will be a hell of a job, but it might be possible.

Dutch electoral law (in Dutch): http://www.st-ab.nl/wetten/0172_Kieswet_KW.htm

On a personal note: I prefer elections in June over elections in September, since I will be abroad the whole month of September. This means that I am unable to volunteer in a polling station, and I would need to find someone to vote for me by proxy.

[freek]

Dutch electoral commission gives September 5 as the earliest feasible date. June 27 would make it impossible for new parties to register their name with the commission, and municipalities (especially the 'special municipalities' in the Caribbean (Bonaire, Saba, St Eustatius) need more time for preparation.

CDA is furious at the VVD for suggesting June 27, because that would give CDA only 3 weeks to elect a new leader.

[Insula Dei]

Are there any feasible leadership candidates? Verhagen seems to be the de facto heart of the party, but I understand he doesn't want the job?

Maybe a September election could be a blessing to the CDA as a relatively unknown new leader may then have the time to properly distantiate himself a little from the party's course over the past 2 years and regain a bit of the base that left the party over it. On the other hand, just how credible would any such attempt be?

[You kip if you want to...]

Between France and this, Merkel must be as annoyed as Segolene Royal.

[freek]

Are there any feasible leadership candidates? Verhagen seems to be the de facto heart of the party, but I understand he doesn't want the job?

Verhagen as leader would be disastrous for the party. He is very unpopular, "slick Jesuit" and "the rat" are some of the more friendlier nicknames I have heard.

Possible candidates:


Jan Kees de Jager, minister of Finance. Quite popular (not with the other European finance ministers), but doesn't seem to want to become party leader. Would be interesting though, a gay man leading a Christian party.


Henk Bleker, underminister of Economic Affairs & Agriculture. Was completely unknown, but became interim party chairman after the elections in 2010, and part of the government afterwards. Cultivates his image of pony farmer from the North, although he was part of the government of Groningen province for 10 years. He is also famous for his relationship with a journalist, she is 26 years old. Bleker has some popularity, but it has waned a bit after some unfortunate remarks.


Liesbeth Spies is the Home Secretary since December after the resignation of Piet Hein Donner (he became vice chairman of the Council of State). Spies used to be an MP for 8 years, and part of the provincial government of Zuid-Holland afterwards. She is unknown to the electorate. There is not really something remarkable about her, but also not much against her.


Marja van Bijsterveldt: Minister of Education. She was active in local politics 1990-2003, party chairman 2003-2007 and then (under)minister of Education. Not very popular with teachers & students, because of budget cuts, but otherwise she is doing a decent job.


Camiel Eurlings: Became MP at 24, in 1998. Afterwards also MEP and minister of Transport. Retired from politics in 2010, to spend more time with his family (i.e. to procreate), however his girlfriend left him a few months later. He now works for KLM, and is still popular especially in Limburg, where he was born. Eurlings is famous for his emotional declaration of support at the CDA congress that gave permission to participate in the VVD/CDA/(PVV) coalition.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FUclLUgE58k

[Insula Dei]

I remember Eurlings' exit back in 2010. I do feel a bit bad for finding his relational troubles afterwards to be so inherently amusing.

You're on the centre-right, if I remember correctly, Freek. Are you intending to vote VVD?

[jeron]

Are there any feasible leadership candidates? Verhagen seems to be the de facto heart of the party, but I understand he doesn't want the job?

Maybe a September election could be a blessing to the CDA as a relatively unknown new leader may then have the time to properly distantiate himself a little from the party's course over the past 2 years and regain a bit of the base that left the party over it. On the other hand, just how credible would any such attempt be?

Voters don't want Verhagen. Possible candidates are ministers De Jager and Spies or maybe leader in the lower house Van Haersma Buma. Of course, it will be hard for them to distance themselves from the party line.
It now seems there is a clear majority for an election at the end of June or possibly early July so there's not much time left for CDA to elect a new leader.