Dutch Government on the verge of falling.

[freek]

Well, doesn't CDA took a beating last time?
They could go even lower?

Oh,  absolutely.  The party is on 12 seats in the polls. They don't even have a leader at the moment.

Early elections are expected in September.

[freek]

Poll posted by jeron above is by De Hond/peil.nl

Last Synovate poll (19 April), compared with previous poll of 5 April

VVD 37 (+1)
PvdA 27 (+1)
SP 26 (+1)
PVV 18 (-2)
D66 13 (nc)
CDA 12 (-1)
GroenLinks 5 (-1)
CU 5  (nc)
PvdD 4 (+1)
SGP 2 (nc)
50+ 1 (nc)

[freek]

Poll posted by jeron above is by De Hond/peil.nl

Last Synovate poll (19 April), compared with previous poll of 5 April

VVD 37 (+1)
PvdA 27 (+1)
SP 26 (+1)
PVV 18 (-2)
D66 13 (nc)
CDA 12 (-1)
GroenLinks 5 (-1)
CU 5  (nc)
PvdD 4 (+1)
SGP 2 (nc)
50+ 1 (nc)

So the left wouldn't be able to form government?

Depends on what is considered as 'left'. In the Netherlands this is usually PvdA, SP, D66, GL, CU, PvdD and probably also 50+. These parties would have a majority of 81, but not a stable one I guess.

[freek]

Would Paars(+) be an option? How does the PvdA feel about the person Rutte?

Paars(+) = VVD/PvdA/D66/(GrLinks), for those outside the Netherlands and Flanders.

Yes, that would be an option. PvdA will blame Rutte for his choice for a coalition supported by the PVV, which was already considered a risk in 2010. Also, his cuts in support for subsidized labour for the handicapped (see this youtube video by the FNV, the PvdA-allied trade union: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BSXYTNq2fyw ), and other cuts will be blamed on him.

As a person, he is by all parties considered as sympathetic, and his leadership style as refreshing, also by the PvdA.

[freek]

How is the relationship between the PvdA and the SP? Would they work together?

Preferably not, both parties don't get along well. PvdA considers the SP to be a bunch of leftwing populists, and the PvdA is considered to be a neoliberal outfit that lost its touch with the lower incomes by the SP.

[freek]

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2012/apr/23/eurozone-crisis-austerity-dutch-government

You must be logged in to read this quote.

It is expected that early elections will be held late September / early October. Elections need about 80 days preparation time, which means the earliest date is around July 15. However, usually no elections are held in the July/August period, because of the summer holiday. Earliest possible date afterwards is September 5. State Opening of Parliament is September 18, which makes elections on September 12 and September 19 highly unlikely.

So, my guess is either September 5, September 26 or October 3.

[freek]

VVD, SP and PvdA want elections before the summer, which would mean end of June!

[freek]

Forging the iron while it's hot, eh?

Is it practically doable to throw together an election before early July? Aren't there any constitutional restraints on the earliest possible date for an election?

When the Second Chamber is dissolved, Dutch electoral law (Kieswet), dictates that candidate lists are handed on a particular Tuesday 0-40 days afterwards. Elections are 43 days after this Tuesday, on a Wednesday.

Usually the maximum period of 40 days is used between dissolution and handing in of candidate lists. This gives parties time to have a party congress, write an election manifesto, and decide on their candidates. New parties also have time to gather declarations of support (30 per election district, 600 in total). Voters living abroad will have to register to vote by mail.

It will be a hell of a job, but it might be possible.

Dutch electoral law (in Dutch): http://www.st-ab.nl/wetten/0172_Kieswet_KW.htm

On a personal note: I prefer elections in June over elections in September, since I will be abroad the whole month of September. This means that I am unable to volunteer in a polling station, and I would need to find someone to vote for me by proxy.

[freek]

Dutch electoral commission gives September 5 as the earliest feasible date. June 27 would make it impossible for new parties to register their name with the commission, and municipalities (especially the 'special municipalities' in the Caribbean (Bonaire, Saba, St Eustatius) need more time for preparation.

CDA is furious at the VVD for suggesting June 27, because that would give CDA only 3 weeks to elect a new leader.

[freek]

Are there any feasible leadership candidates? Verhagen seems to be the de facto heart of the party, but I understand he doesn't want the job?

Verhagen as leader would be disastrous for the party. He is very unpopular, "slick Jesuit" and "the rat" are some of the more friendlier nicknames I have heard.

Possible candidates:


Jan Kees de Jager, minister of Finance. Quite popular (not with the other European finance ministers), but doesn't seem to want to become party leader. Would be interesting though, a gay man leading a Christian party.


Henk Bleker, underminister of Economic Affairs & Agriculture. Was completely unknown, but became interim party chairman after the elections in 2010, and part of the government afterwards. Cultivates his image of pony farmer from the North, although he was part of the government of Groningen province for 10 years. He is also famous for his relationship with a journalist, she is 26 years old. Bleker has some popularity, but it has waned a bit after some unfortunate remarks.


Liesbeth Spies is the Home Secretary since December after the resignation of Piet Hein Donner (he became vice chairman of the Council of State). Spies used to be an MP for 8 years, and part of the provincial government of Zuid-Holland afterwards. She is unknown to the electorate. There is not really something remarkable about her, but also not much against her.


Marja van Bijsterveldt: Minister of Education. She was active in local politics 1990-2003, party chairman 2003-2007 and then (under)minister of Education. Not very popular with teachers & students, because of budget cuts, but otherwise she is doing a decent job.


Camiel Eurlings: Became MP at 24, in 1998. Afterwards also MEP and minister of Transport. Retired from politics in 2010, to spend more time with his family (i.e. to procreate), however his girlfriend left him a few months later. He now works for KLM, and is still popular especially in Limburg, where he was born. Eurlings is famous for his emotional declaration of support at the CDA congress that gave permission to participate in the VVD/CDA/(PVV) coalition.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FUclLUgE58k

[freek]

I remember Eurlings' exit back in 2010. I do feel a bit bad for finding his relational troubles afterwards to be so inherently amusing.

I do feel sorry for him too, his girlfriend was rather attractive.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

I guess so. Not sure yet, I am always in doubt between CDA & VVD (on the European level, I have voted CU/SGP in the past). But I guess it will be VVD this time.

I was not a supporter of the past coalition though.

[freek]

PvdA is now willing to compromise on September 5 as election date, which gives a large majority in parliament for this date.

[freek]

Does this mean the election is off?

No, this is just so there is a 'satisfactory' budget. One could even ask how much of what's been agreed will ever really be acted upon.

Election date is now fixed at 12 September by the government.

Yes, most measures may never be acted upon, but some will. The VAT raise will be effective from October 1st for example.

Parties not participating in the budget talks (PVV, PvdA, SP) have taken a hit in the polls, especially the PvdA. A majority of the PvdA voters actually doesn't disagree with the agreement.

The VVD/CDA/D66/GL/CU-coalition is called the 'Kunduz coalition' in the Netherlands. It is named after the Afghan city where a Dutch police training mission was deployed last year. PVV did not want to agree with this government proposal, but D66, GL and CU did.

Latest polls:
TNS NIPO April 30 (compared with previous poll of March 20)
VVD 32 (-1)
CDA 15 (nc)
PVV 19 (-1)
PvdA 20 (-3)
SP 29 (nc)
D66 16 (+3)
GL 8 (+3)
CU 5 (-1)
SGP 2 (nc)
PvdD 2 (nc)
50Plus 2 (+1)
Other 0 (nc)

Peil.nl/De Hond April 27 (compared with April 22)
VVD 31 (-2)
CDA 13 (+2)
PVV 17 (-2)
PvdA 19 (-5)
SP 31 (+1)
D66 17 (+2)
GL 8 (+3)
CU 7 (+1)
SGP 3 (nc)
PvdD 3 (nc)
50Plus 1 (nc)
Other 0 (nc)

[freek]

At the moment there are 4 candidates for the CDA leadership. Nominations close on May 4.

Candidates are Liesbeth Spies (Home Secretary), Sybrand van Haersma Buma (leader of the CDA fraction in parliament), Marcel Wintels (chairman of Fontys, a group of polytechnic schools) and Harry Wesselink (an unknown CDA member from Nijmegen).

Verhagen, De Jager and Van Bijsterveldt wil not participate for sure, not sure what Bleker will do.

For some unknown reason I didn't include Van Haersma Buma in my list of possible CDA leaders. Sybrand van Haersma Buma is a Frisian protestant, from a family of mayors, officers, and other public servants. He is an MP since 2002, and leader of the CDA fraction since 2010. Until that moment, he was relatively unknown, and he has remained that way. Although he was a proponent of the coalition agreement with the PVV, he didn't manage to give CDA its own profile in parliament. However, now CDA has been removed from the shackles of the coalition agreement, it is a different story. Van Haersma Buma excelled in the debate on the budget of last week, and all PVV inspired laws will either be abolished ("animal cops") or will not be voted upon (double nationality ban, burqa ban)

[freek]

Seems the SP is holding its figures.

At the moment, yes. However, PvdA is aiming to take back some of the voters it has lost to the SP the last few years, by adopting a more leftist course than in the past.