Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
December 21, 2014, 01:45:32 pm
HomePredMockPollEVCalcAFEWIKIHelpLogin Register
News: Atlas Hardware Upgrade complete October 13, 2013.

+  Atlas Forum
|-+  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
| |-+  Congressional Elections (Moderator: Joe Republic)
| | |-+  What is the most likely result of the 2012 Congressional elections?
« previous next »
Pages: [1] Print
Poll
Question: The most likely result of the 2012 Congressional elections is a:
Democratic House, Democratic Senate   -6 (14%)
Republican House, Democratic Senate   -17 (39.5%)
Democratic House, Republican Senate   -2 (4.7%)
Republican House, Republican Senate   -11 (25.6%)
Democratic House, 50/50 Split Senate   -1 (2.3%)
Republican House, 50/50 Split Senate   -6 (14%)
Show Pie Chart
Total Voters: 43

Author Topic: What is the most likely result of the 2012 Congressional elections?  (Read 1512 times)
greenforest32
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2619


Political Matrix
E: -7.94, S: -8.43

View Profile
« on: April 21, 2012, 11:13:02 am »
Ignore

?
Logged
nkpatel1279
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1718
United States


View Profile
« Reply #1 on: April 21, 2012, 01:47:16 pm »
Ignore

Republican House/50-50 Senate.
Democrats will have a net gain of the dozen of seats in the US House- which is not enough to get a Democratic majority. Democrats need a net gain of 25 seats in the US House to get a Democratic majority.
Democrats lose US Senate Seats in NE,ND,MT,MO,and WI(Baldwin-D vs Thompson-R). Democrats hold onto Vulnerable Democratic held US Senate Seats in VA(Kaine-D vs Allen-R)-is pure tossup-but Kaine-D narrowly wins in the end,FL(Nelson-D vs Mack-R)-Nelson-D defeats Mack-R by a narrow/high single digit margin, OH(Brown-D vs Mandel-R)-Brown-D defeats Mandel-R by a narrow/high single digit margin, and NM(Heinrich-D vs Wilson-R)-Heinrich-D defeats Wilson-R by a narrow/high single digit margin. Democrats gain US Senate Seats in MA(Brown-R vs Warren-D)-Warren-D defeats Brown-R by a narrow/high single digit margin and ME(King-I)is likely to caucus with the Democrats once he gets into the US Senate. Republicans hold onto vulnerable seats in NV(Heller-R vs Berkley-D),IN(Mourdock-R vs Donnelly-R),and AZ(Flake-R vs Carmona-D).
Logged
Warner for President '16
benconstine
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 30698
United States


View Profile
« Reply #2 on: April 21, 2012, 04:41:12 pm »
Ignore

GOP House, Democratic Senate
Logged

Obama High's debate team:

"Now let me be clear...I...I...um...uh...now let me be clear.  I strongly condemn the affirmative in the strongest possible terms, and I am closely monitoring their arguments.  Let me be clear on this."
OC
olawakandi
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 10174
United States


View Profile
« Reply #3 on: April 22, 2012, 03:18:37 pm »
Ignore

Dems pickup MA and win VA and FL but loses MT, MO, ND and NEB with a GOP maj House and split senate.
Logged
Sam Spade
SamSpade
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 27871


View Profile
« Reply #4 on: April 22, 2012, 03:24:48 pm »
Ignore

Highly unlikely Dems retake the House (>10% at best), since there appears to be no wave, Senate and Presidency are closer to 50-50, slight edge to Dems.
Logged
perdedor
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2628
United States


View Profile
« Reply #5 on: April 23, 2012, 09:21:59 pm »
Ignore

Boehner is saying there's a 1/3 chance that Republicans lose the house. If Romney bombs worse than expected, then it's not outside the realm of possibility.
Logged

smoltchanov
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1070
Russian Federation
View Profile
« Reply #6 on: April 24, 2012, 02:30:00 am »
Ignore

Boehner is saying there's a 1/3 chance that Republicans lose the house. If Romney bombs worse than expected, then it's not outside the realm of possibility.

Not very likely. 2012 seems to be more like 2004 then "waves" of 2006, 2008 and 2010. In addition - Romney seems to be at least less unpopular in very problematic for Republicans NorthEast and Pacific West. That may help some republican candidates there to hold their seats or even (admittedly - in few cases) - gain some. My present forecast (very preliminary) is about 10 seats gain for Democrats in House
Logged

Raging moderate. Big fan of "mavericks" (in all parties) and big non-lover of "reliable foot soldiers" (in all parties as well). Very much "anti-tea party". Political Matrix - E: -0.26, S: -3.48. Like to collect bans on partisan sites (4-5 on DKE (+ SSP) and on RRH).
pbrower2a
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 10493
United States


View Profile
« Reply #7 on: April 25, 2012, 08:00:27 am »
Ignore

Extremists win once in moderate districts.  They either must 'educate' voters into extremist politics (exceedingly difficult) or moderate themselves. 
Logged



Your political compass

Economic Left/Right: -7.00
Social Libertarian/Authoritarian: -5.49
Pyrofox
PyroTheFox
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 350
United States


Political Matrix
E: -8.52, S: -6.43

View Profile
« Reply #8 on: April 25, 2012, 10:30:57 am »
Ignore

Knowing how well House Democrats campaign...the chance for a re-taking of the House is less than likely. Still, in a year when Congress has such dismal approval ratings, I would hope the election is just pure anti-incumbent.
Logged
Miles
MilesC56
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 16375
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.03, S: 5.74

View Profile
« Reply #9 on: April 25, 2012, 12:41:07 pm »
Ignore

Boehner is saying there's a 1/3 chance that Republicans lose the house. If Romney bombs worse than expected, then it's not outside the realm of possibility.

I agree with Boehner. A 67% chance  of a GOP House sounds about right to me.
Logged


Vosem
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 5772
United States


View Profile
« Reply #10 on: April 26, 2012, 08:14:26 pm »
Ignore

Extremists win once in moderate districts.  They either must 'educate' voters into extremist politics (exceedingly difficult) or moderate themselves. 

Many American left-wingers believe Tea Partiers are extreme because they wouldn't get elected in other countries, or there were few of them before 2010. Newsflash: in the context of American politics, Tea Partiers aren't extremists. Not at all.
Logged

Illegally selling arms to North Korea, providing most of the money to anti-Morales rebels in Bolivia, and using the remainder as hush money for his three ex-mistrisses. 
RogueBeaver
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 15058
Canada


View Profile
« Reply #11 on: April 26, 2012, 08:24:02 pm »
Ignore

GOP House & Senate.
Logged

7.35, 3.65

« Les plus nobles principes du monde ne valent que par l’action.  » - Charles de Gaulle



Is it excessive to hold a politician's feet to the fire for giving his base the run around at every turn?
Sam Spade
SamSpade
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 27871


View Profile
« Reply #12 on: April 26, 2012, 11:13:23 pm »
Ignore

Boehner is saying there's a 1/3 chance that Republicans lose the house. If Romney bombs worse than expected, then it's not outside the realm of possibility.

I agree with Boehner. A 67% chance  of a GOP House sounds about right to me.

Until some evidence of a wave starts presenting itself, this prediction is merely to remind incumbents to not get lazy, and in general, we should see warnings of a wave by now if one were to occur.

Romney's performance is much less important than people think vis-a-vis the House.  Senate is a different story.
Logged
Tzar and IDS Legislator X, Primate of Atlasia
jdb
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 9866
United States


View Profile
« Reply #13 on: April 27, 2012, 07:25:48 am »
Ignore

Boehner is saying there's a 1/3 chance that Republicans lose the house. If Romney bombs worse than expected, then it's not outside the realm of possibility.

I agree with Boehner. A 67% chance  of a GOP House sounds about right to me.

Until some evidence of a wave starts presenting itself, this prediction is merely to remind incumbents to not get lazy, and in general, we should see warnings of a wave by now if one were to occur.

Romney's performance is much less important than people think vis-a-vis the House.  Senate is a different story.

I definitely agree with the bolded part and I'm inclined to agree that Romney's performance is much more important for Senatorial elections than House elections, generally speaking.  However, I'd argue that we might not see as many warning signs in general if it were a "bipartisan," anti-incumbent wave (Note: I'm not saying that such a wave is going to occur in 2012, just that if it were to occur, it might not be clear yet).
Logged

Cool Grin Tongue Smiley Sad Huh Angry Wink Roll Eyes Undecided Cheesy
Shocked Lips sealed
Pages: [1] Print 
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Logout

Powered by SMF 1.1.20 | SMF © 2013, Simple Machines