What is the most likely result of the 2012 Congressional elections?
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  What is the most likely result of the 2012 Congressional elections?
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Question: The most likely result of the 2012 Congressional elections is a:
#1
Democratic House, Democratic Senate
 
#2
Republican House, Democratic Senate
 
#3
Democratic House, Republican Senate
 
#4
Republican House, Republican Senate
 
#5
Democratic House, 50/50 Split Senate
 
#6
Republican House, 50/50 Split Senate
 
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Partisan results

Total Voters: 43

Author Topic: What is the most likely result of the 2012 Congressional elections?  (Read 3286 times)
greenforest32
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« on: April 21, 2012, 11:13:02 AM »

?
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nkpatel1279
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« Reply #1 on: April 21, 2012, 01:47:16 PM »

Republican House/50-50 Senate.
Democrats will have a net gain of the dozen of seats in the US House- which is not enough to get a Democratic majority. Democrats need a net gain of 25 seats in the US House to get a Democratic majority.
Democrats lose US Senate Seats in NE,ND,MT,MO,and WI(Baldwin-D vs Thompson-R). Democrats hold onto Vulnerable Democratic held US Senate Seats in VA(Kaine-D vs Allen-R)-is pure tossup-but Kaine-D narrowly wins in the end,FL(Nelson-D vs Mack-R)-Nelson-D defeats Mack-R by a narrow/high single digit margin, OH(Brown-D vs Mandel-R)-Brown-D defeats Mandel-R by a narrow/high single digit margin, and NM(Heinrich-D vs Wilson-R)-Heinrich-D defeats Wilson-R by a narrow/high single digit margin. Democrats gain US Senate Seats in MA(Brown-R vs Warren-D)-Warren-D defeats Brown-R by a narrow/high single digit margin and ME(King-I)is likely to caucus with the Democrats once he gets into the US Senate. Republicans hold onto vulnerable seats in NV(Heller-R vs Berkley-D),IN(Mourdock-R vs Donnelly-R),and AZ(Flake-R vs Carmona-D).
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Kaine for Senate '18
benconstine
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« Reply #2 on: April 21, 2012, 04:41:12 PM »

GOP House, Democratic Senate
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #3 on: April 22, 2012, 03:18:37 PM »

Dems pickup MA and win VA and FL but loses MT, MO, ND and NEB with a GOP maj House and split senate.
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #4 on: April 22, 2012, 03:24:48 PM »

Highly unlikely Dems retake the House (>10% at best), since there appears to be no wave, Senate and Presidency are closer to 50-50, slight edge to Dems.
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perdedor
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« Reply #5 on: April 23, 2012, 09:21:59 PM »

Boehner is saying there's a 1/3 chance that Republicans lose the house. If Romney bombs worse than expected, then it's not outside the realm of possibility.
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smoltchanov
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« Reply #6 on: April 24, 2012, 02:30:00 AM »

Boehner is saying there's a 1/3 chance that Republicans lose the house. If Romney bombs worse than expected, then it's not outside the realm of possibility.

Not very likely. 2012 seems to be more like 2004 then "waves" of 2006, 2008 and 2010. In addition - Romney seems to be at least less unpopular in very problematic for Republicans NorthEast and Pacific West. That may help some republican candidates there to hold their seats or even (admittedly - in few cases) - gain some. My present forecast (very preliminary) is about 10 seats gain for Democrats in House
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #7 on: April 25, 2012, 08:00:27 AM »

Extremists win once in moderate districts.  They either must 'educate' voters into extremist politics (exceedingly difficult) or moderate themselves. 
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Pyro
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« Reply #8 on: April 25, 2012, 10:30:57 AM »

Knowing how well House Democrats campaign...the chance for a re-taking of the House is less than likely. Still, in a year when Congress has such dismal approval ratings, I would hope the election is just pure anti-incumbent.
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Miles
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« Reply #9 on: April 25, 2012, 12:41:07 PM »

Boehner is saying there's a 1/3 chance that Republicans lose the house. If Romney bombs worse than expected, then it's not outside the realm of possibility.

I agree with Boehner. A 67% chance  of a GOP House sounds about right to me.
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Vosem
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« Reply #10 on: April 26, 2012, 08:14:26 PM »

Extremists win once in moderate districts.  They either must 'educate' voters into extremist politics (exceedingly difficult) or moderate themselves. 

Many American left-wingers believe Tea Partiers are extreme because they wouldn't get elected in other countries, or there were few of them before 2010. Newsflash: in the context of American politics, Tea Partiers aren't extremists. Not at all.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #11 on: April 26, 2012, 08:24:02 PM »

GOP House & Senate.
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #12 on: April 26, 2012, 11:13:23 PM »

Boehner is saying there's a 1/3 chance that Republicans lose the house. If Romney bombs worse than expected, then it's not outside the realm of possibility.

I agree with Boehner. A 67% chance  of a GOP House sounds about right to me.

Until some evidence of a wave starts presenting itself, this prediction is merely to remind incumbents to not get lazy, and in general, we should see warnings of a wave by now if one were to occur.

Romney's performance is much less important than people think vis-a-vis the House.  Senate is a different story.
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Chancellor Tanterterg
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« Reply #13 on: April 27, 2012, 07:25:48 AM »

Boehner is saying there's a 1/3 chance that Republicans lose the house. If Romney bombs worse than expected, then it's not outside the realm of possibility.

I agree with Boehner. A 67% chance  of a GOP House sounds about right to me.

Until some evidence of a wave starts presenting itself, this prediction is merely to remind incumbents to not get lazy, and in general, we should see warnings of a wave by now if one were to occur.

Romney's performance is much less important than people think vis-a-vis the House.  Senate is a different story.

I definitely agree with the bolded part and I'm inclined to agree that Romney's performance is much more important for Senatorial elections than House elections, generally speaking.  However, I'd argue that we might not see as many warning signs in general if it were a "bipartisan," anti-incumbent wave (Note: I'm not saying that such a wave is going to occur in 2012, just that if it were to occur, it might not be clear yet).
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