What is the most likely result of the 2012 Congressional elections?

[greenforest32]

?

[nkpatel1279]

Republican House/50-50 Senate.
Democrats will have a net gain of the dozen of seats in the US House- which is not enough to get a Democratic majority. Democrats need a net gain of 25 seats in the US House to get a Democratic majority.
Democrats lose US Senate Seats in NE,ND,MT,MO,and WI(Baldwin-D vs Thompson-R). Democrats hold onto Vulnerable Democratic held US Senate Seats in VA(Kaine-D vs Allen-R)-is pure tossup-but Kaine-D narrowly wins in the end,FL(Nelson-D vs Mack-R)-Nelson-D defeats Mack-R by a narrow/high single digit margin, OH(Brown-D vs Mandel-R)-Brown-D defeats Mandel-R by a narrow/high single digit margin, and NM(Heinrich-D vs Wilson-R)-Heinrich-D defeats Wilson-R by a narrow/high single digit margin. Democrats gain US Senate Seats in MA(Brown-R vs Warren-D)-Warren-D defeats Brown-R by a narrow/high single digit margin and ME(King-I)is likely to caucus with the Democrats once he gets into the US Senate. Republicans hold onto vulnerable seats in NV(Heller-R vs Berkley-D),IN(Mourdock-R vs Donnelly-R),and AZ(Flake-R vs Carmona-D).

[Senator Ben]

GOP House, Democratic Senate

[OC]

Dems pickup MA and win VA and FL but loses MT, MO, ND and NEB with a GOP maj House and split senate.

[Sam Spade]

Highly unlikely Dems retake the House (>10% at best), since there appears to be no wave, Senate and Presidency are closer to 50-50, slight edge to Dems.

[perdedor]

Boehner is saying there's a 1/3 chance that Republicans lose the house. If Romney bombs worse than expected, then it's not outside the realm of possibility.

[smoltchanov]

Boehner is saying there's a 1/3 chance that Republicans lose the house. If Romney bombs worse than expected, then it's not outside the realm of possibility.

Not very likely. 2012 seems to be more like 2004 then "waves" of 2006, 2008 and 2010. In addition - Romney seems to be at least less unpopular in very problematic for Republicans NorthEast and Pacific West. That may help some republican candidates there to hold their seats or even (admittedly - in few cases) - gain some. My present forecast (very preliminary) is about 10 seats gain for Democrats in House

[pbrower2a]

Extremists win once in moderate districts.  They either must 'educate' voters into extremist politics (exceedingly difficult) or moderate themselves. 

[Rep Pyrofox]

Knowing how well House Democrats campaign...the chance for a re-taking of the House is less than likely. Still, in a year when Congress has such dismal approval ratings, I would hope the election is just pure anti-incumbent.

[MilesC56]

Boehner is saying there's a 1/3 chance that Republicans lose the house. If Romney bombs worse than expected, then it's not outside the realm of possibility.

I agree with Boehner. A 67% chance  of a GOP House sounds about right to me.

[Vosem]

Extremists win once in moderate districts.  They either must 'educate' voters into extremist politics (exceedingly difficult) or moderate themselves. 

Many American left-wingers believe Tea Partiers are extreme because they wouldn't get elected in other countries, or there were few of them before 2010. Newsflash: in the context of American politics, Tea Partiers aren't extremists. Not at all.

[RogueBeaver]

GOP House & Senate.

[Sam Spade]

Boehner is saying there's a 1/3 chance that Republicans lose the house. If Romney bombs worse than expected, then it's not outside the realm of possibility.

I agree with Boehner. A 67% chance  of a GOP House sounds about right to me.

Until some evidence of a wave starts presenting itself, this prediction is merely to remind incumbents to not get lazy, and in general, we should see warnings of a wave by now if one were to occur.

Romney's performance is much less important than people think vis-a-vis the House.  Senate is a different story.

[Senator X]

Boehner is saying there's a 1/3 chance that Republicans lose the house. If Romney bombs worse than expected, then it's not outside the realm of possibility.

I agree with Boehner. A 67% chance  of a GOP House sounds about right to me.

Until some evidence of a wave starts presenting itself, this prediction is merely to remind incumbents to not get lazy, and in general, we should see warnings of a wave by now if one were to occur.

Romney's performance is much less important than people think vis-a-vis the House.  Senate is a different story.

I definitely agree with the bolded part and I'm inclined to agree that Romney's performance is much more important for Senatorial elections than House elections, generally speaking.  However, I'd argue that we might not see as many warning signs in general if it were a "bipartisan," anti-incumbent wave (Note: I'm not saying that such a wave is going to occur in 2012, just that if it were to occur, it might not be clear yet).