France 2012: Official Results Thread
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TheDeadFlagBlues
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #175 on: April 22, 2012, 04:16:11 PM »

Any reason to be shocked that Marine's not carried a department yet?

She still has a great chance at carrying Moselle.
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Andrea
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« Reply #176 on: April 22, 2012, 04:17:07 PM »

Le Pen has won Gard

MLP 25.51
Sarkozy 24.86
Hollande 24.11
Melenchon 13.23
Bayrou 6.91
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Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]
tsionebreicruoc
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« Reply #177 on: April 22, 2012, 04:17:16 PM »

Interestingly both Chirac and Hollande were from outside of Corrèze, but made their political bases there. Chirac is from Paris, Hollande from Rouen.

Ah. I remember Chirac was also Mayor of Paris for some time. I'm always amazed by how much of what would here be seen as blatant carpetbagging goes on in Europe.

Yep, he was mayor of Paris and deputy from Corrèze at the same time, as I recall.

That's legal 'the rule' in France

I'm proud of how well Melenchon did. He started out as a gadfly, and it looks like he may do better than Jean-Marie in 2007. Impressive. I'm certain he took some votes from FN as well.

His campaign was almost universally recognized as having been great and the best one, but really the results are low. He didn't even went beyond the traditional score of the French far-left, but as I posted above, he might, or his movement, might still have a future...

What sort of place is Corrèze? It seems really rural, possibly mountainous? Is it considered part of the Massif Central?

Lived there several years while a child. It's definitely part of Massif Central yes, very green, lot of forests, middle mountains, quite rural, slightly conservative, but still rather open minded, something along the rest of Limousin, might be the most rightist département of this région.

So Hollande's from a sort of low-key rural leftist background, culturally? That sounds nice, actually. Too bad he's going to be inheriting and presiding over an absolute sh**tstorm.

lol, no, at all, it's a cute Parisian upper middle class baby. Grin
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #178 on: April 22, 2012, 04:18:40 PM »

Le Pen has won Gard

MLP 25.51
Sarkozy 24.86
Hollande 24.11
Melenchon 13.23
Bayrou 6.91

On cue, no?
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Nathan
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« Reply #179 on: April 22, 2012, 04:19:12 PM »

What sort of place is Corrèze? It seems really rural, possibly mountainous? Is it considered part of the Massif Central?

Lived there several years while a child. It's definitely part of Massif Central yes, very green, lot of forests, middle mountains, quite rural, slightly conservative, but still rather open minded, something along the rest of Limousin, might be the most rightist département of this région.

So Hollande's from a sort of low-key rural leftist background, culturally? That sounds nice, actually. Too bad he's going to be inheriting and presiding over an absolute sh**tstorm.

lol, no, at all, it's a cute Parisian upper middle class baby. Grin

...Oh joy.

The sheer domination of primate cities is another thing that interests me about Europe. Paris, London, Madrid...New York has nowhere near that much influence within the United States.
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Leftbehind
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« Reply #180 on: April 22, 2012, 04:19:22 PM »

Can we expect much difference from the revised exit polls, or are they usually close to bang on?
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Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]
tsionebreicruoc
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« Reply #181 on: April 22, 2012, 04:21:32 PM »

Hey Languedoc-Roussillon still at it, damn it, Aude:

F. Hollande : 30,40%
M. Le Pen : 23,22%
N. Sarkozy : 21,63%
J-L. Mélenchon : 13,15%
F. Bayrou : 6,04%
E. Joly : 2,09%
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Хahar 🤔
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« Reply #182 on: April 22, 2012, 04:25:26 PM »

What sort of place is Corrèze? It seems really rural, possibly mountainous? Is it considered part of the Massif Central?

Lived there several years while a child. It's definitely part of Massif Central yes, very green, lot of forests, middle mountains, quite rural, slightly conservative, but still rather open minded, something along the rest of Limousin, might be the most rightist département of this région.

So Hollande's from a sort of low-key rural leftist background, culturally? That sounds nice, actually. Too bad he's going to be inheriting and presiding over an absolute sh**tstorm.

lol, no, at all, it's a cute Parisian upper middle class baby. Grin

...Oh joy.

The sheer domination of primate cities is another thing that interests me about Europe. Paris, London, Madrid...New York has nowhere near that much influence within the United States.

New York has that much influence within its state, doesn't it?
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #183 on: April 22, 2012, 04:26:52 PM »

Back.

So, here we go. The first and second results were pretty promising, then came the terrible news. Don't take me wrong, I'm not scared that Hollande could lose this. Even if Sarko had pulled ahead, his chances to win were extremely tight. Now, he's basically done. We'll get rid of him and in the next 5 years we won't have too much economic, social and moral regression. This is a great victory.

But then what about the future ? Le Pen got almost 19% when most polls were giving her 15-16. She did better than her father, and this while turnout was far higher than in 2002. It will be hard to sleep at night thinking one voter of five is ready to support the far-right. I'm pretty sure to know what comes next. The UMP can't remain competitive with a FN at 20%. They have realized that trying to steal their votes by adopting their rhetoric doesn't work. The only rational choice is an electoral alliance. It won't come now, but it might well come by 2017. And then we'll get a Horrible Coalition ala Netherlands... Of course now is too soon, the FN hasn't entirely "dediabolized" itself, but it will come, sooner than you think. The Great Reactionary Alliance, made of those who screw the poor and those who make sure the poor will turn their hate on the foreigners, those who claim to defend the people and those whose policies harm 90% of the people, this alliance is almost unbeatable. France's turn will come.

But I digress. All this will only come if Hollande fails in restoring hope. If he succeeds (he can't succeed alone, he will need other european social democrats to prevail), then the disgusting reactionary machine will be stopped in time. I'll bet on his success.

Now, there's a clear goal : winning more than 55%. Getting a clear mandate is a necessity, winning is not enough. Then, the goal will be to win a solid majority in the Parliament. If all this is done, there are decent reasons to hope.
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World politics is up Schmitt creek
Nathan
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« Reply #184 on: April 22, 2012, 04:27:21 PM »

What sort of place is Corrèze? It seems really rural, possibly mountainous? Is it considered part of the Massif Central?

Lived there several years while a child. It's definitely part of Massif Central yes, very green, lot of forests, middle mountains, quite rural, slightly conservative, but still rather open minded, something along the rest of Limousin, might be the most rightist département of this région.

So Hollande's from a sort of low-key rural leftist background, culturally? That sounds nice, actually. Too bad he's going to be inheriting and presiding over an absolute sh**tstorm.

lol, no, at all, it's a cute Parisian upper middle class baby. Grin

...Oh joy.

The sheer domination of primate cities is another thing that interests me about Europe. Paris, London, Madrid...New York has nowhere near that much influence within the United States.

New York has that much influence within its state, doesn't it?

Good point! Perhaps it would within a hypothetical 'Northeast' country of roughly a large Western European country's population.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #185 on: April 22, 2012, 04:28:42 PM »

The case of Paris is exceptional, I think. Even London doesn't have that degree of...
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #186 on: April 22, 2012, 04:31:11 PM »

Nord is in: Hollande 28, Poison Dwarf 25, Panzergirl 22, Fellow Traveler 12.6
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The Mikado
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« Reply #187 on: April 22, 2012, 04:31:19 PM »

With Le Pen doing insanely well, does that bode a shift from the usual pattern of the FN sucking at elections for the National Assembly?  With this much higher a level of support, surely it's nearing the tipping point where they'll start squeaking through even with France's electoral system.
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Nathan
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« Reply #188 on: April 22, 2012, 04:31:54 PM »

The case of Paris is exceptional, I think. Even London doesn't have that degree of...

Yeah, that's what I was thinking. Hollande even though he represents a rural area is apparently culturally Parisian. Sarkozy is from some awful Paris suburb. Chirac was Parisian. Was Mitterrand even from anywhere in particular?
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #189 on: April 22, 2012, 04:32:36 PM »

Poison Dwarf edges out Panzergirl (and Hollande, actually) in Moselle: 26, 25, 24
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« Reply #190 on: April 22, 2012, 04:34:15 PM »

Are there any seats where 50% of the voters are willing to vote for FN in a two-way election?
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Hash
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« Reply #191 on: April 22, 2012, 04:35:13 PM »

The case of Paris is exceptional, I think. Even London doesn't have that degree of...

Yeah, that's what I was thinking. Hollande even though he represents a rural area is apparently culturally Parisian. Sarkozy is from some awful Paris suburb. Chirac was Parisian. Was Mitterrand even from anywhere in particular?

Mitterrand was from Charente (Jarnac) but his political home base was always Chateau-Chinon in the Nievre.
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Tetro Kornbluth
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« Reply #192 on: April 22, 2012, 04:36:13 PM »

What sort of place is Corrèze? It seems really rural, possibly mountainous? Is it considered part of the Massif Central?

Lived there several years while a child. It's definitely part of Massif Central yes, very green, lot of forests, middle mountains, quite rural, slightly conservative, but still rather open minded, something along the rest of Limousin, might be the most rightist département of this région.

So Hollande's from a sort of low-key rural leftist background, culturally? That sounds nice, actually. Too bad he's going to be inheriting and presiding over an absolute sh**tstorm.

lol, no, at all, it's a cute Parisian upper middle class baby. Grin

...Oh joy.

The sheer domination of primate cities is another thing that interests me about Europe. Paris, London, Madrid...New York has nowhere near that much influence within the United States.

New York has that much influence within its state, doesn't it?

Good point! Perhaps it would within a hypothetical 'Northeast' country of roughly a large Western European country's population.

U.S. States really can't be compared to European countries, as the former were the creation of the colonial/Washington administration often before the areas in question were even populated by Euro-Americans (or at least in large numbers). So the dynamics are different, but the dominance of Primate cities is hardly unusual in a global context, The US and Germany (a European city) are the outliers in this.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #193 on: April 22, 2012, 04:36:25 PM »

Pas de Calais: Hollande 29, Panzergirl 25, Poison Dwarf 22, Fellow Traveler 11

Haut Rhin is a big win for Poison Dwarf, though. Perhaps they preferred Daddy out there.
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Insula Dei
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« Reply #194 on: April 22, 2012, 04:36:58 PM »

With Le Pen doing insanely well, does that bode a shift from the usual pattern of the FN sucking at elections for the National Assembly?  With this much higher a level of support, surely it's nearing the tipping point where they'll start squeaking through even with France's electoral system.

Presidential elections aren't Assemblée elections, and I don't think there are a lot of chances for the FN to get more than 50% in a two-way election anywhere in France.
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tsionebreicruoc
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« Reply #195 on: April 22, 2012, 04:37:11 PM »

Yeah, France is a rural/middle cities country with one BIG of which all the other ones are fully dependent.

That's changing with time though, with political and cultural régionalization (that I don't all criticize), and the greatest development of regional cities.

With Le Pen doing insanely well, does that bode a shift from the usual pattern of the FN sucking at elections for the National Assembly?  With this much higher a level of support, surely it's nearing the tipping point where they'll start squeaking through even with France's electoral system.

Yep, that's what I was personally thinking, even before tonight's results, if only for MLP succeeding to do something in Hénin Beaumont, her big barking mouth in the Assembly would be something. That's done though, the 'Republican alliance' always happening against FN so far always worked very well. But who knows, those législatives élections could be quite interesting, at several levels...
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Insula Dei
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« Reply #196 on: April 22, 2012, 04:39:27 PM »

On the whole that first exit poll seems to have made Le Pen's showing slightly worse than it actually appears to be, right now. Still, the Far Right really seems to underpoll always. Also Melenchon Sad

Oh well, at least Hollande looking good.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #197 on: April 22, 2012, 04:39:57 PM »

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MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!
Kalwejt
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« Reply #198 on: April 22, 2012, 04:40:59 PM »

What sort of place is Corrèze? It seems really rural, possibly mountainous? Is it considered part of the Massif Central?

Lived there several years while a child. It's definitely part of Massif Central yes, very green, lot of forests, middle mountains, quite rural, slightly conservative, but still rather open minded, something along the rest of Limousin, might be the most rightist département of this région.

So Hollande's from a sort of low-key rural leftist background, culturally? That sounds nice, actually. Too bad he's going to be inheriting and presiding over an absolute sh**tstorm.

lol, no, at all, it's a cute Parisian upper middle class baby. Grin

...Oh joy.

The sheer domination of primate cities is another thing that interests me about Europe. Paris, London, Madrid...New York has nowhere near that much influence within the United States.

New York has that much influence within its state, doesn't it?

Yep, but no one can be Mayor of New York and Representative from Kansas at the same time.
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Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]
tsionebreicruoc
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« Reply #199 on: April 22, 2012, 04:41:44 PM »

Yeah, France is a rural/middle cities country with one BIG of which all the other ones are fully dependent.

That's changing with time though, with political and cultural régionalization (that I don't all criticize), and the greatest development of regional cities.

With Le Pen doing insanely well, does that bode a shift from the usual pattern of the FN sucking at elections for the National Assembly?  With this much higher a level of support, surely it's nearing the tipping point where they'll start squeaking through even with France's electoral system.

Yep, that's what I was personally thinking, even before tonight's results, if only for MLP succeeding to do something in Hénin Beaumont, her big barking mouth in the Assembly would be something. That's done though, the 'Republican alliance' always happening against FN so far always worked very well. But who knows, those législatives élections could be quite interesting, at several levels...

Keyboard slip in tongue. Grin. Hopefully not a 'revelatory one' as we say in French. Was suppposed to be 'That's not done', indeed.
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