France 2012: Official Results Thread
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Hash
Hashemite
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« Reply #325 on: April 22, 2012, 08:13:36 PM »

Abstention was 51% in Mayotte, so let's stop grasping at straws.
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tsionebreicruoc
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« Reply #326 on: April 22, 2012, 08:13:57 PM »

Sarkozy won New-Caledonia too:

N. Sarkozy : 49,63%
F. Hollande : 24,91%
M. Le Pen : 11,66%
F. Bayrou : 5,13%
J-L. Mélenchon : 3,28%
E. Joly : 2,62%
P. Poutou : 0,98%
N. Dupont-Aignan : 0,93%
N. Arthaud : 0,54%
J. Cheminade : 0,31%

Hmm, the point of oversea territories would also be to have abstention results, I'd be curious to know it for New-Caledonia.
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tsionebreicruoc
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« Reply #327 on: April 22, 2012, 08:15:37 PM »
« Edited: April 22, 2012, 08:17:25 PM by Benwah [why on Earth do I post something] Courseyay »

Saint-Pierre-et-Miquelon, no jealous between MLP and JLM:

F. Hollande : 33,75%
N. Sarkozy : 18,55%
M. Le Pen : 15,81%
J-L. Mélenchon : 15,17%
F. Bayrou : 7,37%
P. Poutou : 3,91%
N. Dupont-Aignan : 2,43%
E. Joly : 1,63%
N. Arthaud : 0,87%
J. Cheminade : 0,49%

Poutou!

If you add it to Mélenchon, and well Hollande, that puts it quite on the Left, didn't know.
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« Reply #328 on: April 22, 2012, 08:17:12 PM »

Sarkozy won New-Caledonia too:

N. Sarkozy : 49,63%
F. Hollande : 24,91%
M. Le Pen : 11,66%
F. Bayrou : 5,13%
J-L. Mélenchon : 3,28%
E. Joly : 2,62%
P. Poutou : 0,98%
N. Dupont-Aignan : 0,93%
N. Arthaud : 0,54%
J. Cheminade : 0,31%

Hmm, the point of oversea territories would also be to have abstention results, I'd be curious to know it for New-Caledonia.

44.6% in New Caledonia. I'd be curious to see a map of results and abstention in Kanakie/New Caledonia by commune, though I can draw it up in my mind right now and not be too far off.

SPM was posted on page one here.
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« Reply #329 on: April 22, 2012, 08:20:00 PM »

Saint-Martin/Saint-Barthélémy:

 N. Sarkozy : 43,62%
F. Hollande : 26,78%
M. Le Pen : 12,14%
F. Bayrou : 5,89%
J-L. Mélenchon : 5,89% lol, indeed
E. Joly : 2,59%
N. Dupont-Aignan : 1,15%
P. Poutou : 1,06%
N. Arthaud : 0,55%
J. Cheminade : 0,35%
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MaxQue
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« Reply #330 on: April 22, 2012, 08:21:12 PM »

Pretty awful for Sarko in Paris. He won only 1st, 6th, 7th, 8th, 15th, 16th and 17th arrondissements.
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Beet
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« Reply #331 on: April 22, 2012, 08:22:12 PM »

Marine has done very well in old Communist working-class municipalities, historically so. Melenchon's appeal to the old PCF prole base has been fairly tepid to say the least. A comparison to Hue's 1995 map will be very interesting, I already know that Hue did better in the Allier in 95 than Memelenchon. The bad news is, I'll have to suffer through the loads and loads of douchebags who will use this as proof that there has always been a strong link between Commies and Fascists... just like the Commies use the 1984 Euros to prove the contrary... oh Christ... I might as well jump off a bridge...

Well as far as the campaign went, were there glaring differences between Marine and Melenchon on economic policy? They are both euroskeptic, anti-globalization, one favors regulating banks heavily, the other favors nationalizing them, etc. Main difference is one emphasizes reducing immigration, the other does not speak to it, no?
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tsionebreicruoc
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« Reply #332 on: April 22, 2012, 08:26:04 PM »

To sum it on oversea territories:

Sarkozy won Saint-Martin/Saint Barth, New-Caledonia, Polynesia, Mayotte

Hollande Guyanne, Martinique, Guadeloupe, Réunion, Saint-Pierre et Miquelon, Wallis et Futuna

In short, dunno if it tells something, but Hollande wins all the DOMs but one, and Sarkozy all the TOMs but one.
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« Reply #333 on: April 22, 2012, 08:28:08 PM »

Marine has done very well in old Communist working-class municipalities, historically so. Melenchon's appeal to the old PCF prole base has been fairly tepid to say the least. A comparison to Hue's 1995 map will be very interesting, I already know that Hue did better in the Allier in 95 than Memelenchon. The bad news is, I'll have to suffer through the loads and loads of douchebags who will use this as proof that there has always been a strong link between Commies and Fascists... just like the Commies use the 1984 Euros to prove the contrary... oh Christ... I might as well jump off a bridge...

Well as far as the campaign went, were there glaring differences between Marine and Melenchon on economic policy? They are both euroskeptic, anti-globalization, one favors regulating banks heavily, the other favors nationalizing them, etc. Main difference is one emphasizes reducing immigration, the other does not speak to it, no?

Mélenchon is for regularization of Capitalism and against Financial world overall.

Le Pen is for nationalism and against Globalization overall.

Just for the main traits.
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« Reply #334 on: April 22, 2012, 08:29:35 PM »
« Edited: April 22, 2012, 08:32:01 PM by Sharif Hashemite »

Here's one type of place where Sarko held up very well vis-a-vis 2007: very wealthy suburbs. Not surprising. This whole campaign, besides Sarko, has been about who would come up with the best insult to rich people.

edit: confirmed. He's even improving on his 2007 results in a good number of wealthyland places.
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« Reply #335 on: April 22, 2012, 08:30:58 PM »

For what it's worth:

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« Reply #336 on: April 22, 2012, 08:42:11 PM »

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« Reply #337 on: April 22, 2012, 08:47:01 PM »

Official site of Paris' city:

http://www.paris.fr/politiques/Portal.lut?page_id=7796&document_type_id=4&document_id=114391&portlet_id=17975
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LastVoter
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« Reply #338 on: April 22, 2012, 08:48:08 PM »

France has really left wing & radical men!
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« Reply #339 on: April 22, 2012, 08:51:26 PM »

Why do olds like Sarkozy so much? Is that normal for UMP candidates?
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #340 on: April 22, 2012, 09:16:29 PM »

And here we are...

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« Reply #341 on: April 22, 2012, 09:23:30 PM »
« Edited: April 22, 2012, 09:26:14 PM by Benwah [why on Earth do I post something] Courseyay »

Well, to sum it, yeah, bad turn for Sarkozy, he is not ahead, FN is bigger than ever especially when you consider the turnout (in this sense maybe the comparison with MLP doing less than her father here or there might not be totally relevant, since 2002 had the records of abstention), Hollande is several points ahead of him, Mélenchon isn't a danger for him because his score is finally quite low compared to last scores of the French far-left as a whole, so Centrists won't have to be much afraid of Hollande having to do big concessions to Mélenchon, moreover the Centrist vote in this election is some people who have voted for Bayrou, that is for someone of which the main job has been to do some anti-Sarkozysme during 5 years (along with more or less the whole French political class that wasn't on Sarkozy's side). Sarkozy will have to hunt a lot of FN votes, and it would make flee Centrists still more...

Seems only the debate could save Sarkozy so far, or a war, or some major riots in some rough districts eventually.

If Hollande 'wins' it would be a totally Rajoy 'victory', doing nothing, saying nothing, rather invisible campaign, mainly oriented at hitting on the opponent.

If Hollande 'wins' then, the UMP will be totally destroyed. Coppé is totally weak as a leader, Fillon is over tired, and Juppé is old, and you have all youngs with giant teeth like NKM and overall Wauqiez and Yade which won't help. This while Marine Le Pen is in a total momentum now. And who will try to extend a new movement the further she can to the traditional Right. Sarkozy wanted eat FN vote? The backlash could eventually be terrible.

Législatives will be quite important.

While I've been over annoyed by PS during years and years, I always planed to finish with a Hollande ballot in the hand, but I actually tend to wonder what would be the worse for the country when you look at the whole picture. There is no momentum at all around Hollande, no enthusiasm, and this in a totally shaked up epoch while PS wouldn't much more solutions than Sarkozy had to face the challenges we're facing nowadays...

While I don't fear an actual far-right danger electorally, as in taking the 'power' (yeah for the part of power which is left to this political system anyhow...) in France, and in Europe as a whole I'd say (next interesting thing to monitor in this regard will be Greece), the coming times could actually become heavy psychologically.



C'mon! This Front is more needed than the other one!

It's a bad night.
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« Reply #342 on: April 22, 2012, 09:40:26 PM »
« Edited: April 22, 2012, 09:44:26 PM by Beet »

Is it really so bad? (it's hard for me to say this since I'm usually aggressively pessimistic)

First of all, aren't there numerous other left-wing candidates on the ballot? (Poutou, Arthaud,Cheminade) When I sum these up I get about 13.1%. Compared to 2007, when you sum up the far left candidates you get around 9.4%. So the far left did improve.

Secondly, 18% for FN- really that much surprise? Yes it's two points higher than her polling, but the far-right frequently underpolls-we knew that. Plus at the beginning of the year she was polling at 19-20%. Yes she did better than her father in 2002, but in 2002 there was no economic crisis. Now you have this movement (FN) saying for years that the euro was going to be a problem, and you have this massive crisis. No surprise at all.

I've taken another look at Marine's positions- she supports allowing the government to borrow from the central bank at low interest. This is a sane position-- arguably the Bundesbank position is far more insane than that. She supports the Havana Charter, a Keynesian idea to stabilize trade imbalances between countries. The last problem Keynes worked on at the end of his life. I don't see this as a problem.

Overall, except that she is associated with FN, I think some of her positions should be taken and co-opted by the left. Melenchon or someone like him should continue to build on his movement, perhaps moderate a bit to attract more voters. France must learn to say 'no' or at least credibly threaten it or Merkel will never wake up. Now France has Spain, Italy, and possibly Netherlands at her side! The majority of Europe is waking up.
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« Reply #343 on: April 22, 2012, 09:52:42 PM »

I can see what people mean now by saying it's overtly simplistic to describe Paris as right wing with Le Pen's performance there.
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« Reply #344 on: April 22, 2012, 10:01:22 PM »
« Edited: April 22, 2012, 10:02:53 PM by Benwah [why on Earth do I post something] Courseyay »

Well, about the rest of French far-left, they really can't be considered serious 'blahblalah CAPITALISM IS EVIL!....blahblhablha....ELECTIONS ARE USELESS! WE NEED A NEW REVOLUTION!...blablhablha...F**K IT ALL! WE KNOW THE GOOD SOLUTIONS...blhablhablha...ALL OF THIS IS A BOURGEOISIE CONSPIRACY!...blhablhablha...ETC!'

Something like that. No, it really doesn't help. Mélenchon was by far the most constructive with a quite pedagogic and well articulated discourse, which is why even if personally I don't believe in solutions within the economico-political system in which we are living, and while I was as much annoyed by this over tired PCF, I found Mélenchon quite refreshing and thought about voting for him, and that something could happen around him since the end of 2010, before the world 'entered into Revolution'... And when you see the blow that is campaign had, it can only be disappointing.

But, that being said, yeah, as I kept saying, and even several times tonight, a movement like this could really have a future, and even if I don't see what he proposes as a finality at all, I see most of what he proposes as some steps that goes in the right direction to me.

But, the other point is the actual surprise of tonight. FN biggest than ever. The very big and very positive dynamic around Mélenchon's campaign makes that, besides the reasons you gave to explain her raise, which would be rather relevant, such a FN score is surprising, because such a FDG score is surprising.

Oh, and, about Marine Le Pen's positioning on such or such, yeah, you might read fancy things here or there that want to make her movement look sane, but when you hear her barking all over, you understand like...an other kind of ambiance.

So, yeah, I'd personally be rather optimistic for Europe on the Middle term (thankfully the shortly middle possible), but still if someone like Marine Le Pen takes a big importance, and at worst plays one of the most important roles, even if I think all this system turns more and more into a less and less relevant joke, once again, on the short term, psychologically, could be heavy.

We'll know more in 14 days.
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« Reply #345 on: April 22, 2012, 10:11:41 PM »

Trivia that I just read:

New-York (Upper East Side only): Sarkozy 60% - Hollande 19%

Biggest MLP score:

Brachay (Haute-Marne): 72% (!)
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« Reply #346 on: April 22, 2012, 10:16:34 PM »

Cheminade 22,73% and Hollande 13,64% in Varmonzey (Vosges)!

(5 votes for Cheminade against 3 for Hollande Grin)
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True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)
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« Reply #347 on: April 22, 2012, 10:24:34 PM »

lol, seems like Le Figaro is almost happy of that big Le Pen:
Marine Le Pen's breakthrough relaunches the 2nd run

MLP's strength is the most unexpected result and hence the most newsworthy.  I'd expected her to do better than her polling numbers, but not this much better.
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« Reply #348 on: April 22, 2012, 10:27:13 PM »

lol, seems like Le Figaro is almost happy of that big Le Pen:
Marine Le Pen's breakthrough relaunches the 2nd run

MLP's strength is the most unexpected result and hence the most newsworthy.

Yeah, but one has to know that Le Figaro is a UMP/Sarkozy hack thing. Then this 'relaunches' can be seen as 'cool, France is on the far-right, good news for Sarkozy'...
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« Reply #349 on: April 22, 2012, 10:29:39 PM »


What's the difference between A, B, and C?
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