Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
September 20, 2014, 04:59:35 am
HomePredMockPollEVCalcAFEWIKIHelpLogin Register
News: Atlas Hardware Upgrade complete October 13, 2013.

+  Atlas Forum
|-+  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
| |-+  International Elections (Moderator: PASOK Leader Hashemite)
| | |-+  France 2012: Official Results Thread
« previous next »
Pages: 1 ... 10 11 12 13 14 [15] 16 17 18 19 20 ... 37 Print
Author Topic: France 2012: Official Results Thread  (Read 32310 times)
Benwah [why on Earth do I post something] Courseyay
tsionebreicruoc
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 5944
France


View Profile
« Reply #350 on: April 22, 2012, 09:23:30 pm »
Ignore

Well, to sum it, yeah, bad turn for Sarkozy, he is not ahead, FN is bigger than ever especially when you consider the turnout (in this sense maybe the comparison with MLP doing less than her father here or there might not be totally relevant, since 2002 had the records of abstention), Hollande is several points ahead of him, Mélenchon isn't a danger for him because his score is finally quite low compared to last scores of the French far-left as a whole, so Centrists won't have to be much afraid of Hollande having to do big concessions to Mélenchon, moreover the Centrist vote in this election is some people who have voted for Bayrou, that is for someone of which the main job has been to do some anti-Sarkozysme during 5 years (along with more or less the whole French political class that wasn't on Sarkozy's side). Sarkozy will have to hunt a lot of FN votes, and it would make flee Centrists still more...

Seems only the debate could save Sarkozy so far, or a war, or some major riots in some rough districts eventually.

If Hollande 'wins' it would be a totally Rajoy 'victory', doing nothing, saying nothing, rather invisible campaign, mainly oriented at hitting on the opponent.

If Hollande 'wins' then, the UMP will be totally destroyed. Coppé is totally weak as a leader, Fillon is over tired, and Juppé is old, and you have all youngs with giant teeth like NKM and overall Wauqiez and Yade which won't help. This while Marine Le Pen is in a total momentum now. And who will try to extend a new movement the further she can to the traditional Right. Sarkozy wanted eat FN vote? The backlash could eventually be terrible.

Législatives will be quite important.

While I've been over annoyed by PS during years and years, I always planed to finish with a Hollande ballot in the hand, but I actually tend to wonder what would be the worse for the country when you look at the whole picture. There is no momentum at all around Hollande, no enthusiasm, and this in a totally shaked up epoch while PS wouldn't much more solutions than Sarkozy had to face the challenges we're facing nowadays...

While I don't fear an actual far-right danger electorally, as in taking the 'power' (yeah for the part of power which is left to this political system anyhow...) in France, and in Europe as a whole I'd say (next interesting thing to monitor in this regard will be Greece), the coming times could actually become heavy psychologically.



C'mon! This Front is more needed than the other one!

It's a bad night.
« Last Edit: April 22, 2012, 09:26:14 pm by Benwah [why on Earth do I post something] Courseyay »Logged

14/01/2011: Tunisia!!
11/02/2011: Egypt!
20/10/2011: Libya
02/09/2013: Abandon of Syria...
...and of, well, 'all of that'...

Money became totally unfair.
Money became totally senseless.
Let's make Money totally useless...

??/??/20??: EU UU!!

Maybe a little update:

Religion Tradition is people's opium...
Beet
Moderators
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 15979


View Profile
« Reply #351 on: April 22, 2012, 09:40:26 pm »
Ignore

Is it really so bad? (it's hard for me to say this since I'm usually aggressively pessimistic)

First of all, aren't there numerous other left-wing candidates on the ballot? (Poutou, Arthaud,Cheminade) When I sum these up I get about 13.1%. Compared to 2007, when you sum up the far left candidates you get around 9.4%. So the far left did improve.

Secondly, 18% for FN- really that much surprise? Yes it's two points higher than her polling, but the far-right frequently underpolls-we knew that. Plus at the beginning of the year she was polling at 19-20%. Yes she did better than her father in 2002, but in 2002 there was no economic crisis. Now you have this movement (FN) saying for years that the euro was going to be a problem, and you have this massive crisis. No surprise at all.

I've taken another look at Marine's positions- she supports allowing the government to borrow from the central bank at low interest. This is a sane position-- arguably the Bundesbank position is far more insane than that. She supports the Havana Charter, a Keynesian idea to stabilize trade imbalances between countries. The last problem Keynes worked on at the end of his life. I don't see this as a problem.

Overall, except that she is associated with FN, I think some of her positions should be taken and co-opted by the left. Melenchon or someone like him should continue to build on his movement, perhaps moderate a bit to attract more voters. France must learn to say 'no' or at least credibly threaten it or Merkel will never wake up. Now France has Spain, Italy, and possibly Netherlands at her side! The majority of Europe is waking up.
« Last Edit: April 22, 2012, 09:44:26 pm by Beet »Logged

black and white band photos
BRTD
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 72217
United Kingdom


View Profile
« Reply #352 on: April 22, 2012, 09:52:42 pm »
Ignore

I can see what people mean now by saying it's overtly simplistic to describe Paris as right wing with Le Pen's performance there.
Logged



Green = Fake Scotland
Red = Real Scotland


01/05/2004-01/10/2014
Benwah [why on Earth do I post something] Courseyay
tsionebreicruoc
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 5944
France


View Profile
« Reply #353 on: April 22, 2012, 10:01:22 pm »
Ignore

Well, about the rest of French far-left, they really can't be considered serious 'blahblalah CAPITALISM IS EVIL!....blahblhablha....ELECTIONS ARE USELESS! WE NEED A NEW REVOLUTION!...blablhablha...F**K IT ALL! WE KNOW THE GOOD SOLUTIONS...blhablhablha...ALL OF THIS IS A BOURGEOISIE CONSPIRACY!...blhablhablha...ETC!'

Something like that. No, it really doesn't help. Mélenchon was by far the most constructive with a quite pedagogic and well articulated discourse, which is why even if personally I don't believe in solutions within the economico-political system in which we are living, and while I was as much annoyed by this over tired PCF, I found Mélenchon quite refreshing and thought about voting for him, and that something could happen around him since the end of 2010, before the world 'entered into Revolution'... And when you see the blow that is campaign had, it can only be disappointing.

But, that being said, yeah, as I kept saying, and even several times tonight, a movement like this could really have a future, and even if I don't see what he proposes as a finality at all, I see most of what he proposes as some steps that goes in the right direction to me.

But, the other point is the actual surprise of tonight. FN biggest than ever. The very big and very positive dynamic around Mélenchon's campaign makes that, besides the reasons you gave to explain her raise, which would be rather relevant, such a FN score is surprising, because such a FDG score is surprising.

Oh, and, about Marine Le Pen's positioning on such or such, yeah, you might read fancy things here or there that want to make her movement look sane, but when you hear her barking all over, you understand like...an other kind of ambiance.

So, yeah, I'd personally be rather optimistic for Europe on the Middle term (thankfully the shortly middle possible), but still if someone like Marine Le Pen takes a big importance, and at worst plays one of the most important roles, even if I think all this system turns more and more into a less and less relevant joke, once again, on the short term, psychologically, could be heavy.

We'll know more in 14 days.
« Last Edit: April 22, 2012, 10:02:53 pm by Benwah [why on Earth do I post something] Courseyay »Logged

14/01/2011: Tunisia!!
11/02/2011: Egypt!
20/10/2011: Libya
02/09/2013: Abandon of Syria...
...and of, well, 'all of that'...

Money became totally unfair.
Money became totally senseless.
Let's make Money totally useless...

??/??/20??: EU UU!!

Maybe a little update:

Religion Tradition is people's opium...
Benwah [why on Earth do I post something] Courseyay
tsionebreicruoc
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 5944
France


View Profile
« Reply #354 on: April 22, 2012, 10:11:41 pm »
Ignore

Trivia that I just read:

New-York (Upper East Side only): Sarkozy 60% - Hollande 19%

Biggest MLP score:

Brachay (Haute-Marne): 72% (!)
Logged

14/01/2011: Tunisia!!
11/02/2011: Egypt!
20/10/2011: Libya
02/09/2013: Abandon of Syria...
...and of, well, 'all of that'...

Money became totally unfair.
Money became totally senseless.
Let's make Money totally useless...

??/??/20??: EU UU!!

Maybe a little update:

Religion Tradition is people's opium...
Benwah [why on Earth do I post something] Courseyay
tsionebreicruoc
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 5944
France


View Profile
« Reply #355 on: April 22, 2012, 10:16:34 pm »
Ignore

Cheminade 22,73% and Hollande 13,64% in Varmonzey (Vosges)!

(5 votes for Cheminade against 3 for Hollande Grin)
Logged

14/01/2011: Tunisia!!
11/02/2011: Egypt!
20/10/2011: Libya
02/09/2013: Abandon of Syria...
...and of, well, 'all of that'...

Money became totally unfair.
Money became totally senseless.
Let's make Money totally useless...

??/??/20??: EU UU!!

Maybe a little update:

Religion Tradition is people's opium...
True Federalist
Ernest
Moderators
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 28232
United States


View Profile WWW
« Reply #356 on: April 22, 2012, 10:24:34 pm »
Ignore

lol, seems like Le Figaro is almost happy of that big Le Pen:
Marine Le Pen's breakthrough relaunches the 2nd run

MLP's strength is the most unexpected result and hence the most newsworthy.  I'd expected her to do better than her polling numbers, but not this much better.
Logged

My November ballot:
Ervin(I) Gov.
Sellers(D) Lt. Gov.
Hammond(R) Sec. of State
Diggs(D) Att. Gen.
Herbert(D) Comptroller Gen.
Spearman(R) Supt. of Education
DeFelice(American) Commissioner of Agriculture
Hutto(D) US Sen (full)
Scott(R) US Sen (special)
Geddings(Labor) US House SC-2
Quinn(R) SC House District 69
Yes: Amendment 1 (Gen. Assembly may allow and regulate charity raffles)
No: Amendment 2 (end election of the Adjutant General)
Benwah [why on Earth do I post something] Courseyay
tsionebreicruoc
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 5944
France


View Profile
« Reply #357 on: April 22, 2012, 10:27:13 pm »
Ignore

lol, seems like Le Figaro is almost happy of that big Le Pen:
Marine Le Pen's breakthrough relaunches the 2nd run

MLP's strength is the most unexpected result and hence the most newsworthy.

Yeah, but one has to know that Le Figaro is a UMP/Sarkozy hack thing. Then this 'relaunches' can be seen as 'cool, France is on the far-right, good news for Sarkozy'...
Logged

14/01/2011: Tunisia!!
11/02/2011: Egypt!
20/10/2011: Libya
02/09/2013: Abandon of Syria...
...and of, well, 'all of that'...

Money became totally unfair.
Money became totally senseless.
Let's make Money totally useless...

??/??/20??: EU UU!!

Maybe a little update:

Religion Tradition is people's opium...
True Federalist
Ernest
Moderators
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 28232
United States


View Profile WWW
« Reply #358 on: April 22, 2012, 10:29:39 pm »
Ignore

Anyways...



What's the difference between A, B, and C?
Logged

My November ballot:
Ervin(I) Gov.
Sellers(D) Lt. Gov.
Hammond(R) Sec. of State
Diggs(D) Att. Gen.
Herbert(D) Comptroller Gen.
Spearman(R) Supt. of Education
DeFelice(American) Commissioner of Agriculture
Hutto(D) US Sen (full)
Scott(R) US Sen (special)
Geddings(Labor) US House SC-2
Quinn(R) SC House District 69
Yes: Amendment 1 (Gen. Assembly may allow and regulate charity raffles)
No: Amendment 2 (end election of the Adjutant General)
Benwah [why on Earth do I post something] Courseyay
tsionebreicruoc
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 5944
France


View Profile
« Reply #359 on: April 22, 2012, 10:29:55 pm »
Ignore

Damn it, Cheminade doesn't gives voting instructions.
Logged

14/01/2011: Tunisia!!
11/02/2011: Egypt!
20/10/2011: Libya
02/09/2013: Abandon of Syria...
...and of, well, 'all of that'...

Money became totally unfair.
Money became totally senseless.
Let's make Money totally useless...

??/??/20??: EU UU!!

Maybe a little update:

Religion Tradition is people's opium...
Eraserhead
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 38694
United States


View Profile
« Reply #360 on: April 22, 2012, 11:08:10 pm »
Ignore

So what are Sarkozy's odds of survival? Maybe 1/5 or something like that?
Logged



As expected the wop won.

Eraserhead's Original Update: Open For Business 24/7
Meeker
meekermariner
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 14170


Political Matrix
E: -4.90, S: -2.61

View Profile
« Reply #361 on: April 22, 2012, 11:18:42 pm »
Ignore

He hasn't led Hollande in a poll since late 2009. Put a fork in him.
Logged
redcommander
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3833
View Profile
« Reply #362 on: April 23, 2012, 02:15:27 am »
Ignore

I refuse to believe that France will elect Hollande.
Logged
asexual trans victimologist
Nathan
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 12529


View Profile
« Reply #363 on: April 23, 2012, 02:19:46 am »
Ignore

I refuse to believe that France will elect Hollande.

...

...I genuinely pity you.
Logged

A shameless agrarian collectivist with no respect for private property or individual rights.

His idea of freedom is - it is a bad thing and should be stopped at all costs.

Nathan-land.  As much fun as watching paint dry... literally.
Landslide Lyndon
px75
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 9165
Greece


Political Matrix
E: -2.58, S: -5.22

View Profile
« Reply #364 on: April 23, 2012, 02:57:37 am »
Ignore

I refuse to believe that France will elect Hollande.

Well, I'm sorry to break this to you but Sarkozy and his conservative brethren have screwed it royally here in Europe.
Payback is a bitch.
Logged

Bob Findley: "You're a real dyed-in-the-wool son-of-a-bitch. Anyone ever told you that?"
Steve Everett: "Just close friends and family,"

Clint Eastwood's "True Crime", 1999.
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Moderators
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 34113
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -7.10, S: -6.09

View Profile
« Reply #365 on: April 23, 2012, 03:15:43 am »
Ignore

I refuse to believe that France will elect Hollande.

Don't worry, Sarkozy still has a good chance to pull this out in round 2, no matter what the polls say right now.
Logged
redcommander
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3833
View Profile
« Reply #366 on: April 23, 2012, 03:32:36 am »
Ignore

I refuse to believe that France will elect Hollande.

Don't worry, Sarkozy still has a good chance to pull this out in round 2, no matter what the polls say right now.

Are you being serious or sarcastic?
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Moderators
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 34113
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -7.10, S: -6.09

View Profile
« Reply #367 on: April 23, 2012, 03:37:58 am »
Ignore

I refuse to believe that France will elect Hollande.

Don't worry, Sarkozy still has a good chance to pull this out in round 2, no matter what the polls say right now.

Are you being serious or sarcastic?

Serious.
Logged
Franzl
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 22117
Germany


View Profile
« Reply #368 on: April 23, 2012, 03:44:06 am »
Ignore

What could really change the direction of this election? Strong debate performance? As much as I'd prefer to see Sarkozy re-elected, I don't see why he'd convince voters in these final two weeks of why they should give him another chance.
Logged
redcommander
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3833
View Profile
« Reply #369 on: April 23, 2012, 03:48:01 am »
Ignore

What could really change the direction of this election? Strong debate performance? As much as I'd prefer to see Sarkozy re-elected, I don't see why he'd convince voters in these final two weeks of why they should give him another chance.

Maybe there's some scandal with Hollande that no one knows about yet?
Logged
Franzl
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 22117
Germany


View Profile
« Reply #370 on: April 23, 2012, 03:51:31 am »
Ignore

What could really change the direction of this election? Strong debate performance? As much as I'd prefer to see Sarkozy re-elected, I don't see why he'd convince voters in these final two weeks of why they should give him another chance.

Maybe there's some scandal with Hollande that no one knows about yet?

Yeah, or aliens might rig the election. Guess we shouldn't give up hope. Who knows, right?
Logged
Antonio V
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 30891
France


Political Matrix
E: -6.45, S: -4.87

P P P

View Profile
« Reply #371 on: April 23, 2012, 04:02:09 am »
Ignore

So what are Sarkozy's odds of survival? Maybe 1/5 or something like that?

More like 1/20, to be objective. He would have to pick 4 points in two weeks.
Logged

Quote from: IRC
22:15   ComradeSibboleth   this is all extremely terrible and in all respects absolutely fycking dire.

It REALLY is.



"A reformist is someone who realizes that, when you bang your head on a wall, it's the head that breaks rather than the wall."

Peppino, from the movie Baaria
politicus
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4178
Denmark


View Profile
« Reply #372 on: April 23, 2012, 06:16:07 am »
Ignore


It's funny that they keep around some communes that no one lives in any more.

Ah well, yeah, you can find some with about 15 people here and there...

There are those too, in addition to the ones that literally have no one.
So if you moved there, you could be your own mayor?
Logged


Every time I see Denmark I just want to punch it in the face...
Sam Spade
SamSpade
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 27871


View Profile
« Reply #373 on: April 23, 2012, 06:18:49 am »
Ignore

So what are Sarkozy's odds of survival? Maybe 1/5 or something like that?

1%.  And I'm being generous there just because the PS is guaranteed to take the wrong strategy to winning, i.e. let's run to not lose, which is the only way of losing.  A competent party and candidate would be 100% assured of election in this type of "Mickey Mouse" struggle.

I'm tempted to also say that the PS chances in 2017 are somewhere around 1% also, but that is unnecessary dick-waving.
Logged
Insula Dei
belgiansocialist
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4233
Belgium


View Profile
« Reply #374 on: April 23, 2012, 06:28:46 am »
Ignore

Btw, I thought Melenchon's speech yesterday struck most of the right notes from the perspective of getting rid of Sarkozy. 'Fight without asking anything in return, only the privilege of being able to fight.' That attitude should probably guarantee a quite easy transfer of support towards Hollande.
Logged

Pages: 1 ... 10 11 12 13 14 [15] 16 17 18 19 20 ... 37 Print 
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Logout

Powered by SMF 1.1.19 | SMF © 2013, Simple Machines