France 2012: Official Results Thread

[danny]

Results in Israel (7,196 total votes):

Sarkozy: 82.74%
Hollande: 7.62%
MLP: 3.99%

[Insula Dei]

Results in Israel (7,196 total votes):

Sarkozy: 82.74%
Hollande: 7.62%
MLP: 3.99%

Who would those voters be? Mostly French Jews living in Israel but not (yet) naturalized, or just the usual expat population? Those numbers make me sort of suspect the former.

[Hashemite]

Results by (new) constituency



It's a real pity I have an exam tomorrow (in macroeconomics, no less) and that I start work on April 30, but I'll try to have some stats up soon. In any case, Geoclip's greatness will allow me to be lazy and steal their maps.

[asexual trans victimologist]

I've heard it said that Panzergirl's voters are considered most likely to sit out the second round. How much to this is there?

[Tender Branson]

Where can you see how the Austrian French people voted ?

[Hatman]

Where can you see how the Austrian French people voted ?

For that matter, where can you find out how other countries voted?

[Hashemite]

More maps!

Daddy's Girl compared to Daddy in 2002 (about +1.04% nationally)



Marchais' Imitation compared to the Garden Dwarf in 1995 (+2.38% nationally)



Next up: Poison Dwarf in 2007 and 2012.

[politicus]

Anybody got some info on the areas where Panzergirl did worse than Daddy? What is the likely explanation?

[Sibboleth]

Is there a link to the constituency results?

[Californian Tony]

Vélizy results :

Sarko 33.85%
Hollande 26.64%
Le Pen 13.27%
Bayrou 10.71%
Mélenchon 9.33%
Joly 2.34%
Dupont-Aignan 2.08%
Poutou 1.01%
Arthaud 0.39%
Cheminade 0.37%

Yep, it still sucks.

[Californian Tony]

Results by (new) constituency



It's a real pity I have an exam tomorrow (in macroeconomics, no less) and that I start work on April 30, but I'll try to have some stats up soon. In any case, Geoclip's greatness will allow me to be lazy and steal their maps.

I assume Hollande won a majority of them ? I'm curious to know how many though.

[Sibboleth]

Anyways...

What's the difference between A, B, and C?

I don't have the book in front of me at the moment, but something like:

A - Farming households, B - Rural households generally, C - Urban households.

[Hashemite]

Anybody got some info on the areas where Panzergirl did worse than Daddy? What is the likely explanation?

Two main things:

a. Urban areas or increasingly suburban areas - almost all of them. Since 1984, the FN vote has moved away from the downtown cores of all cities and has become very much of an exurban/rural vote. White flight/immigration, high property prices, boboisation all explain why the FN has gradually declined in cities. This is, of course, very clear in Paris but it likely explains Rhone/Ain/Loire, Alsace, Haute-Garonne, Herault and potentially Isere.
b. In a few cases, those spots where the 2002ish FN vote was fairly well-off of the CSP+ socioprofessional categories. Sarko stole all of them in 2007, apparently he kept a few of his 2007 gains with the most well-off/CSP+ FN voters. Likely explains Alpes-Maritimes.

I'll need to look at cantonal results in Savoie to see what happened there. Probably factor a.

[Hashemite]

In metro France/Corsica by canton, there is a strong positive correlation of 0.466 between the percentage of ouvriers and the vote for Panzergirl. There is a similar 0.475 correlation between the percentage of ouvriers+employees ('salariat modeste') and the vote for Panzergirl. In 2007, the correlation between ouvrier and Daddy was 0.471, in 2002 it was only 0.237.

[Tender Branson]

Where can you see how the Austrian French people voted ?

For that matter, where can you find out how other countries voted?

[Hashemite]

Cantonal version of the FN 2002 vs. 2012 map:

[Hatman]

Where can you see how the Austrian French people voted ?

For that matter, where can you find out how other countries voted?

[danny]

Results in Israel (7,196 total votes):

Sarkozy: 82.74%
Hollande: 7.62%
MLP: 3.99%

Who would those voters be? Mostly French Jews living in Israel but not (yet) naturalized, or just the usual expat population? Those numbers make me sort of suspect the former.

I don't know but I was assuming so, especially since there were over 49,000 eligible voters so it was only 15% turnout.
Also note that this does not include Jerusalem (which had a polling place) which has a sizable population of French immigrants, since France doesn't recognize Jerusalem as being part of Israel.

PS, are naturalized Israelis ineligible to vote in these elections?

[DL]

I wonder how French citizens in Canada voted. There is a very large French community in Montreal now...I suspect they are mostly pretty left-leaning.

[crypto-fascist superhero]

So it looks like Le Pen lost votes in conservative areas and gained in leftist areas?  Makes sense.

[Keystone Phil]

Uhhhhh...wow - http://pate.blogs.france24.com/article/2012/04/11/francois-hollande-jay-z-kanye-west-niggas-paris-campaign-video-france-elec-0

[ZuWo]

I haven't found a direct link to the results, but here's what the Swiss press has to say about how French citizens in Switzerland voted:

(Voters: 49 522, Turnout: 46%)

Sarkozy 41.75%
Hollande 20.19%
Bayrou 14.76%
Mélenchon 7.33%
Le Pen 7.17%
Joly 5.35%

http://www.rts.ch/info/suisse/3943008-les-francais-de-suisse-ont-massivement-vote-sarkozy.html

[Tender Branson]

Ahhh, the French Embassy in Austria has the results of Austrian-French voters:

HOLLANDE François         32,12%
SARKOZY Nicolas         28,09%
BAYROU François         15,49%
JOLY Eva                         10,27%
MELENCHON Jean-Luc     8,68%
LE PEN Marine                   2,77%
DUPONT-AIGNAN Nicolas 1,06%
POUTOU Philippe           0,61%
CHEMINADE Jacques       0,53%
ARTHAUD Nathalie           0,37%

Good result for Joly !

http://www.ambafrance-at.org/Resultats-du-premier-tour-de-l

[Ghyl Tarvoke]

Ireland (on what looks like a less than 20% turnout):

http://www.ambafrance-ie.org/Presidential-election-First-round

JOLY Eva   149
LE PEN Marine   84
SARKOZY Nicolas   514
MELENCHON Jean-Luc   210
POUTOU Philippe   18
ARTHAUD Nathalie   7
CHEMINADE Jacques   8
BAYROU François   293
DUPONT-AIGNAN Nicolas   45
HOLLANDE François   617

Joly beat Le Pen, at least.

Also found the total votes for Francais De L'etranger:

Mme Eva JOLY   21 947    5,44
Mme Marine LE PEN   23 995    5,95
M. Nicolas SARKOZY   153 301    38,00
M. Jean-Luc MÉLENCHON   33 503    8,31
M. Philippe POUTOU   2 843    0,70
Mme Nathalie ARTHAUD   1 137    0,28
M. Jacques CHEMINADE   1 457    0,36
M. François BAYROU   45 867    11,37
M. Nicolas DUPONT-AIGNAN   5 148    1,28
M. François HOLLANDE   114 197    28,31

Sarkozy comfortable winner abroad it seems. See: http://elections.interieur.gouv.fr/PR2012/000/099/index.html

[Ghyl Tarvoke]

So what are Sarkozy's odds of survival? Maybe 1/5 or something like that?

1%.  And I'm being generous there just because the PS is guaranteed to take the wrong strategy to winning, i.e. let's run to not lose, which is the only way of losing.  A competent party and candidate would be 100% assured of election in this type of "Mickey Mouse" struggle.

I'm tempted to also say that the PS chances in 2017 are somewhere around 1% also, but that is unnecessary dick-waving.

Given that, as of yet, I have felt no need to stock up on food and vegetables despite your previous prognostications on the European crisis, may I have your permission to take your predictions with a grain of salt?