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| | |-+  France 2012: Official Results Thread
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Author Topic: France 2012: Official Results Thread  (Read 35039 times)
danny
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« Reply #375 on: April 23, 2012, 07:34:13 am »
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Results in Israel (7,196 total votes):

Sarkozy: 82.74%
Hollande: 7.62%
MLP: 3.99%
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Insula Dei
belgiansocialist
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« Reply #376 on: April 23, 2012, 09:20:20 am »
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Results in Israel (7,196 total votes):

Sarkozy: 82.74%
Hollande: 7.62%
MLP: 3.99%

Who would those voters be? Mostly French Jews living in Israel but not (yet) naturalized, or just the usual expat population? Those numbers make me sort of suspect the former.
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Hashemite
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« Reply #377 on: April 23, 2012, 09:45:36 am »

Results by (new) constituency



It's a real pity I have an exam tomorrow (in macroeconomics, no less) and that I start work on April 30, but I'll try to have some stats up soon. In any case, Geoclip's greatness will allow me to be lazy and steal their maps.
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Nathan
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« Reply #378 on: April 23, 2012, 10:15:36 am »
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I've heard it said that Panzergirl's voters are considered most likely to sit out the second round. How much to this is there?
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A shameless agrarian collectivist with no respect for private property or individual rights.

His idea of freedom is - it is a bad thing and should be stopped at all costs.

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Tender Branson
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« Reply #379 on: April 23, 2012, 10:18:48 am »
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Where can you see how the Austrian French people voted ?
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Hatman
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« Reply #380 on: April 23, 2012, 10:23:20 am »
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Where can you see how the Austrian French people voted ?

For that matter, where can you find out how other countries voted?
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Hashemite
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« Reply #381 on: April 23, 2012, 11:01:45 am »

More maps!

Daddy's Girl compared to Daddy in 2002 (about +1.04% nationally)



Marchais' Imitation compared to the Garden Dwarf in 1995 (+2.38% nationally)



Next up: Poison Dwarf in 2007 and 2012.
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politicus
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« Reply #382 on: April 23, 2012, 11:06:28 am »
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Anybody got some info on the areas where Panzergirl did worse than Daddy? What is the likely explanation?
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Sibboleth
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« Reply #383 on: April 23, 2012, 11:09:09 am »
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Is there a link to the constituency results?
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"I have become entangled in my own data, and my conclusion stands in direct contradiction to the initial idea from which I started. Proceeding from unlimited freedom, I end with unlimited despotism. I will add, however, that there can be no solution of the social formula except mine."
Antonio V
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« Reply #384 on: April 23, 2012, 11:23:42 am »
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Vélizy results :

Sarko 33.85%
Hollande 26.64%
Le Pen 13.27%
Bayrou 10.71%
Mélenchon 9.33%
Joly 2.34%
Dupont-Aignan 2.08%
Poutou 1.01%
Arthaud 0.39%
Cheminade 0.37%

Yep, it still sucks.
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22:15   ComradeSibboleth   this is all extremely terrible and in all respects absolutely fycking dire.

It really is.



"A reformist is someone who realizes that, when you bang your head on a wall, it's the head that breaks rather than the wall."

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Antonio V
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« Reply #385 on: April 23, 2012, 11:25:28 am »
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Results by (new) constituency



It's a real pity I have an exam tomorrow (in macroeconomics, no less) and that I start work on April 30, but I'll try to have some stats up soon. In any case, Geoclip's greatness will allow me to be lazy and steal their maps.

I assume Hollande won a majority of them ? I'm curious to know how many though.
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22:15   ComradeSibboleth   this is all extremely terrible and in all respects absolutely fycking dire.

It really is.



"A reformist is someone who realizes that, when you bang your head on a wall, it's the head that breaks rather than the wall."

Peppino, from the movie Baaria
Sibboleth
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« Reply #386 on: April 23, 2012, 11:32:25 am »
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Anyways...



What's the difference between A, B, and C?

I don't have the book in front of me at the moment, but something like:

A - Farming households, B - Rural households generally, C - Urban households.
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"I have become entangled in my own data, and my conclusion stands in direct contradiction to the initial idea from which I started. Proceeding from unlimited freedom, I end with unlimited despotism. I will add, however, that there can be no solution of the social formula except mine."
Hashemite
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« Reply #387 on: April 23, 2012, 11:36:34 am »

Anybody got some info on the areas where Panzergirl did worse than Daddy? What is the likely explanation?

Two main things:

a. Urban areas or increasingly suburban areas - almost all of them. Since 1984, the FN vote has moved away from the downtown cores of all cities and has become very much of an exurban/rural vote. White flight/immigration, high property prices, boboisation all explain why the FN has gradually declined in cities. This is, of course, very clear in Paris but it likely explains Rhone/Ain/Loire, Alsace, Haute-Garonne, Herault and potentially Isere.
b. In a few cases, those spots where the 2002ish FN vote was fairly well-off of the CSP+ socioprofessional categories. Sarko stole all of them in 2007, apparently he kept a few of his 2007 gains with the most well-off/CSP+ FN voters. Likely explains Alpes-Maritimes.

I'll need to look at cantonal results in Savoie to see what happened there. Probably factor a.
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Hashemite
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« Reply #388 on: April 23, 2012, 11:59:47 am »

In metro France/Corsica by canton, there is a strong positive correlation of 0.466 between the percentage of ouvriers and the vote for Panzergirl. There is a similar 0.475 correlation between the percentage of ouvriers+employees ('salariat modeste') and the vote for Panzergirl. In 2007, the correlation between ouvrier and Daddy was 0.471, in 2002 it was only 0.237.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #389 on: April 23, 2012, 12:07:02 pm »
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Where can you see how the Austrian French people voted ?

For that matter, where can you find out how other countries voted?
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Hashemite
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« Reply #390 on: April 23, 2012, 12:09:18 pm »

Cantonal version of the FN 2002 vs. 2012 map:

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Hatman
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« Reply #391 on: April 23, 2012, 12:09:54 pm »
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Where can you see how the Austrian French people voted ?

For that matter, where can you find out how other countries voted?
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danny
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« Reply #392 on: April 23, 2012, 12:22:50 pm »
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Results in Israel (7,196 total votes):

Sarkozy: 82.74%
Hollande: 7.62%
MLP: 3.99%

Who would those voters be? Mostly French Jews living in Israel but not (yet) naturalized, or just the usual expat population? Those numbers make me sort of suspect the former.

I don't know but I was assuming so, especially since there were over 49,000 eligible voters so it was only 15% turnout.
Also note that this does not include Jerusalem (which had a polling place) which has a sizable population of French immigrants, since France doesn't recognize Jerusalem as being part of Israel.

PS, are naturalized Israelis ineligible to vote in these elections?
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DL
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« Reply #393 on: April 23, 2012, 12:27:09 pm »
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I wonder how French citizens in Canada voted. There is a very large French community in Montreal now...I suspect they are mostly pretty left-leaning.
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wormyguy
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« Reply #394 on: April 23, 2012, 12:31:37 pm »
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So it looks like Le Pen lost votes in conservative areas and gained in leftist areas?  Makes sense.
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #395 on: April 23, 2012, 12:39:48 pm »
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Uhhhhh...wow - http://pate.blogs.france24.com/article/2012/04/11/francois-hollande-jay-z-kanye-west-niggas-paris-campaign-video-france-elec-0
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« Reply #396 on: April 23, 2012, 12:50:55 pm »
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I haven't found a direct link to the results, but here's what the Swiss press has to say about how French citizens in Switzerland voted:

(Voters: 49 522, Turnout: 46%)

Sarkozy 41.75%
Hollande 20.19%
Bayrou 14.76%
Mélenchon 7.33%
Le Pen 7.17%
Joly 5.35%

http://www.rts.ch/info/suisse/3943008-les-francais-de-suisse-ont-massivement-vote-sarkozy.html
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #397 on: April 23, 2012, 01:00:17 pm »
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Ahhh, the French Embassy in Austria has the results of Austrian-French voters:

HOLLANDE François         32,12%
SARKOZY Nicolas         28,09%
BAYROU François         15,49%
JOLY Eva                         10,27%
MELENCHON Jean-Luc     8,68%
LE PEN Marine                   2,77%
DUPONT-AIGNAN Nicolas 1,06%
POUTOU Philippe           0,61%
CHEMINADE Jacques       0,53%
ARTHAUD Nathalie           0,37%

Good result for Joly !

http://www.ambafrance-at.org/Resultats-du-premier-tour-de-l
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Tetro Kornbluth
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« Reply #398 on: April 23, 2012, 01:15:26 pm »
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Ireland (on what looks like a less than 20% turnout):

http://www.ambafrance-ie.org/Presidential-election-First-round

JOLY Eva   149
LE PEN Marine   84
SARKOZY Nicolas   514
MELENCHON Jean-Luc   210
POUTOU Philippe   18
ARTHAUD Nathalie   7
CHEMINADE Jacques   8
BAYROU François   293
DUPONT-AIGNAN Nicolas   45
HOLLANDE François   617

Joly beat Le Pen, at least.

Also found the total votes for Francais De L'etranger:

Mme Eva JOLY   21 947    5,44
Mme Marine LE PEN   23 995    5,95
M. Nicolas SARKOZY   153 301    38,00
M. Jean-Luc MÉLENCHON   33 503    8,31
M. Philippe POUTOU   2 843    0,70
Mme Nathalie ARTHAUD   1 137    0,28
M. Jacques CHEMINADE   1 457    0,36
M. François BAYROU   45 867    11,37
M. Nicolas DUPONT-AIGNAN   5 148    1,28
M. François HOLLANDE   114 197    28,31

Sarkozy comfortable winner abroad it seems. See: http://elections.interieur.gouv.fr/PR2012/000/099/index.html
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Keith R Laws ‏@Keith_Laws  Feb 4
As I have noted before 'paradigm shift' is an anagram of 'grasp dim faith'
Tetro Kornbluth
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« Reply #399 on: April 23, 2012, 01:28:14 pm »
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So what are Sarkozy's odds of survival? Maybe 1/5 or something like that?

1%.  And I'm being generous there just because the PS is guaranteed to take the wrong strategy to winning, i.e. let's run to not lose, which is the only way of losing.  A competent party and candidate would be 100% assured of election in this type of "Mickey Mouse" struggle.

I'm tempted to also say that the PS chances in 2017 are somewhere around 1% also, but that is unnecessary dick-waving.

Given that, as of yet, I have felt no need to stock up on food and vegetables despite your previous prognostications on the European crisis, may I have your permission to take your predictions with a grain of salt?
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Keith R Laws ‏@Keith_Laws  Feb 4
As I have noted before 'paradigm shift' is an anagram of 'grasp dim faith'
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