France 2012: Official Results Thread
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tpfkaw
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« Reply #500 on: April 29, 2012, 10:08:07 PM »

We may also have to envision what sort of person a French expatriate in Cuba might be.

Fair enough, although Sarkozy's results in Libya and Armenia, and Melenchon's result in (once again Sandinista-ruled) Nicaragua also seem a little "fixed."

I didn't know Daniel Ortega is supervising French presidential election abroad.

It'd be trivially easy for a foreign government to commit absentee voter fraud; if they have the names and addresses of French expats they simply send requests for absentee ballots, intercept them at the post office, and fill them out themselves.  Expats in Latin America tend to be wealthy businesspeople, so a large vote for the far-left would not at all be characteristic.
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« Reply #501 on: April 29, 2012, 10:38:56 PM »
« Edited: April 29, 2012, 10:42:45 PM by All of a Sudden I Miss Everyone »

So Jews vote right wing in France?

We may also have to envision what sort of person a French expatriate in Cuba might be.

Most likely living in some resort area and not much different from an American expat in Mexico. Though of course it is only 24% so I guess people seeking international solidarity can explain that.

Le Pen's numbers in South Sudan is what I find most odd since I'd believe most French living in Africa are from immigrant families who have moved back.
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Bacon King
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« Reply #502 on: April 30, 2012, 12:05:40 AM »

Weird results explained!

Libya: most French expats that have already returned to Libya are in the oil industry (Total), "private security" business - i.e., mercenaries hired by the oil companies to protect their property (Gallice Security), and French Navy personnel sent to advise the new Libyan military. These all sound like quite the conservative types. There's probably also a bit of extra support for Sarkozy because of the proactive role he played in Ghaddafi's overthrow.

Armenia: Sarkozy has made a big deal on the campaign trail about repassing his Armenian Genocide bill that the French courts overturned; probably has a lot to do with it.

Cuba: The expats who aren't good communists get kicked out, of course. But more seriously, there's probably a huge self-selection bias among those who chose to emigrate to a dramatically leftist country rather than somewhere else in the region. Same probably applies to Nicaragua.

South Sudan: Hell if I know. Total has an oil concession here that they've barely started exploring, so it's probably the oiler + private security combo of Libya without any other expat community or esteem for overthrowing Ghaddaffi.

It'd be trivially easy for a foreign government to commit absentee voter fraud; if they have the names and addresses of French expats they simply send requests for absentee ballots, intercept them at the post office, and fill them out themselves.

Not true; French election law requires that postal absentee voters place a copy of their identification card in the ballot envelope, so it'd be pretty much  impossible for some foreign government to attempt this. The international polling stations have very strict security as well, and don't even allow non-French citizens to enter the premises. Not to mention the fact, of course, that it'd be quite ridiculously stupid for a nation's government to risk a huge international incident just to cast a few hundred fraudulent ballots for another country's election.

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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #503 on: April 30, 2012, 04:01:56 AM »

Only Libyans really know how much of a hero Sarkozy is ! Grin



I don't know about Jews in general, but Israel residents must fear socialists to have pro-Palestinian tendencies (though French diplomacy regarding Palestine has hardly been different between left and right-wing governments).
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Bacon King
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« Reply #504 on: April 30, 2012, 04:41:05 AM »

Here's a pretty cool map from Wikipedia, showing winner by commune:

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Bacon King
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« Reply #505 on: April 30, 2012, 05:01:21 AM »

South Sudan: Hell if I know. Total has an oil concession here that they've barely started exploring, so it's probably the oiler + private security combo of Libya without any other expat community or esteem for overthrowing Ghaddaffi.

Okay, figured this out. Le Pen won, yes: with 4 votes out of the 14 cast. So it's really just a statistical anomaly more than anything.
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« Reply #506 on: April 30, 2012, 02:58:37 PM »

How did Le Pen do in Israel?
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MaxQue
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« Reply #507 on: April 30, 2012, 03:29:11 PM »


Israel:
Sarkozy 82.7, Hollande 7.6, Le Pen 4, Bayrou 2.8, Mélenchon 0.97, Dupont-Aignan 0.84, Joly 0.56, Poutou 0.28, Cheminade 0.15, Arthaud 0.10

Jerusalem (which is separate of Israel and includes Ramallah):
Sarkozy 75.1, Hollande 9.5, Bayrou 6.2, Le Pen 3.6, Mélenchon 2.6, Dupont-Aignan 1.2, Joly 1.2, Poutou 0.19, Cheminade 0.19, Arthaud 0.19
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big bad fab
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« Reply #508 on: April 30, 2012, 05:06:12 PM »

Hash, I was wondering...
how about a comparison between NDA 2012 and Pasqua-Villiers 1999 ?

Unfortunately, no map from Euro 1999 are available any longer on your old blog Tongue Sad
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Stranger in a strange land
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« Reply #509 on: April 30, 2012, 08:06:38 PM »

We may also have to envision what sort of person a French expatriate in Cuba might be.

Fair enough, although Sarkozy's results in Libya and Armenia, and Melenchon's result in (once again Sandinista-ruled) Nicaragua also seem a little "fixed."

I didn't know Daniel Ortega is supervising French presidential election abroad.

It'd be trivially easy for a foreign government to commit absentee voter fraud; if they have the names and addresses of French expats they simply send requests for absentee ballots, intercept them at the post office, and fill them out themselves.  Expats in Latin America tend to be wealthy businesspeople, so a large vote for the far-left would not at all be characteristic.

Again, think about what type of French citizen lives in Cuba or Nicaragua, neither of which is friendly towards rich Western businesspeople, and that any French citizen living there would be doing so of their own accord. Also, the Libya result makes sense given Sarkozy's role in the intervention which helped overthrow Gaddafi.
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ag
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« Reply #510 on: April 30, 2012, 11:09:21 PM »

Again, think about what type of French citizen lives in Cuba or Nicaragua, neither of which is friendly towards rich Western businesspeople, and that any French citizen living there would be doing so of their own accord.

Actually, I am not sure of Nicaragua (don't have any info), but Cuba is, actually, pretty friendly for a certain kind of a European businessman. And, yes, quite a few Europeans (almost definitely French as well) do business there - with the state, much of the time, of course. Money doesn't smell, does it?
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MaxQue
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« Reply #511 on: May 01, 2012, 02:17:45 AM »

Anyone has an idea of what's happening with Massif Central?
Is it going the Bretagne way, a couple of decades later?
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #512 on: May 01, 2012, 03:22:49 AM »


Israel:
Sarkozy 82.7, Hollande 7.6, Le Pen 4, Bayrou 2.8, Mélenchon 0.97, Dupont-Aignan 0.84, Joly 0.56, Poutou 0.28, Cheminade 0.15, Arthaud 0.10

Jerusalem (which is separate of Israel and includes Ramallah):
Sarkozy 75.1, Hollande 9.5, Bayrou 6.2, Le Pen 3.6, Mélenchon 2.6, Dupont-Aignan 1.2, Joly 1.2, Poutou 0.19, Cheminade 0.19, Arthaud 0.19
I was seriously wondering about why they defined things that way. Trying to refuse to either endorse or non-endorse Israeli annexation of East Jerusalem?
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danny
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« Reply #513 on: May 01, 2012, 06:46:19 AM »

I was seriously wondering about why they defined things that way. Trying to refuse to either endorse or non-endorse Israeli annexation of East Jerusalem?


France doesn't recognize any part of Jerusalem as part of Israel (including west Jerusalem), they still refer to Jerusalem as corpus separatum as it was supposed to be under the "United Nations Partition Plan for Palestine".
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #514 on: May 01, 2012, 07:01:16 AM »

Uh... that sounds odd. (It's not as if they don't recognize the rest of Israel's post-48 boundaries either, is it?) Though it does explain things here.
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danny
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« Reply #515 on: May 01, 2012, 08:47:28 AM »

Uh... that sounds odd. (It's not as if they don't recognize the rest of Israel's post-48 boundaries either, is it?) Though it does explain things here.
Yes, they are not very consistant about this, one of the polls was in Beer Sheva and is included in Israel despite being part of Palestine under that plan.
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afleitch
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« Reply #516 on: May 01, 2012, 09:10:28 AM »


“Scottish” results (those registered with the Edinburgh consultate)

Hollande 35.04
Sarkozy 21.39
Bayrou 15.48
Joly 10.29
Melenchon 9.18
Le Pen 3.99
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ag
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« Reply #517 on: May 01, 2012, 09:34:22 AM »
« Edited: May 01, 2012, 09:43:39 AM by ag »

Uh... that sounds odd. (It's not as if they don't recognize the rest of Israel's post-48 boundaries either, is it?) Though it does explain things here.

The corpus separatum thing is the standard Western approach to the legal status of Jerusalem. There is nothing strange or new about it: it has always been the position not only of the French, but of the others as well. The Brits, for instance, do the same. This is what the website of their consulate in Jerusalem says:

"Although we accept de facto Israeli control of West Jerusalem, we consider East Jerusalem to be occupied territory. It is crucial that the parties involved come to an agreement whereby Jerusalem can be a shared capital of the Israeli and Palestinian States."

The idea, of course, is, that Israeli control of West Jerusalem will be recognized de jure (not merely de facto) only after the final settlement is achieved. Until then, for the diplomatic purposes, Jerusalem remains, I guess, the last remnant of the Mandate Palestine Smiley
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ag
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« Reply #518 on: May 01, 2012, 09:39:39 AM »

Uh... that sounds odd. (It's not as if they don't recognize the rest of Israel's post-48 boundaries either, is it?) Though it does explain things here.
Yes, they are not very consistant about this, one of the polls was in Beer Sheva and is included in Israel despite being part of Palestine under that plan.

They ARE very consistent: it's such a long-standing policy, there's been time to work it out to the minute detail. Israeli post-1948 (pre-1967) borders are, in general, recognized, with one exception: Israeli control of any part of the City of Jerusalem will only be recognized de jure upon the final settlement. The French are not alone here: this is the general approach of most of the world. This is why there are so few embassies in Jerusalem - almost nobody recognizes any part of Jerusalem as legally Israeli. This position is made very clearly, for instance, on the website of the British consulate in Jerusalem.
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big bad fab
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« Reply #519 on: May 01, 2012, 10:45:46 AM »
« Edited: May 01, 2012, 11:16:43 AM by big bad fab »

Hash, I was wondering...
how about a comparison between NDA 2012 and Pasqua-Villiers 1999 ?

Unfortunately, no map from Euro 1999 are available any longer on your old blog Tongue Sad

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EDIT: and for all, a small article on my blog with some modest maps:
http://sondages2012.wordpress.com/2012/05/01/geographie-electorale-simplifiee-du-1er-tour-lavenir-difficile-de-la-droite-lechec-de-bayrou-la-force-du-neo-lepenisme-et-le-regain-des-gauches/
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danny
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« Reply #520 on: May 01, 2012, 02:32:25 PM »

Uh... that sounds odd. (It's not as if they don't recognize the rest of Israel's post-48 boundaries either, is it?) Though it does explain things here.
Yes, they are not very consistant about this, one of the polls was in Beer Sheva and is included in Israel despite being part of Palestine under that plan.

They ARE very consistent: it's such a long-standing policy, there's been time to work it out to the minute detail. Israeli post-1948 (pre-1967) borders are, in general, recognized, with one exception: Israeli control of any part of the City of Jerusalem will only be recognized de jure upon the final settlement. The French are not alone here: this is the general approach of most of the world. This is why there are so few embassies in Jerusalem - almost nobody recognizes any part of Jerusalem as legally Israeli. This position is made very clearly, for instance, on the website of the British consulate in Jerusalem.

It may be long standing but I don't see how it is consistent if they are going to recognize other parts of pre-67 areas as part of Israel and not "west Jerusalem". And it isn't clear to me what "Jerusalem" means. Is it the original UN corpus separatum? The areas currently defined by Israel as Jerusalem? the areas the British mandate defined as jerusalem?
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ag
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« Reply #521 on: May 02, 2012, 10:48:04 AM »

It may be long standing but I don't see how it is consistent if they are going to recognize other parts of pre-67 areas as part of Israel and not "west Jerusalem". And it isn't clear to me what "Jerusalem" means. Is it the original UN corpus separatum? The areas currently defined by Israel as Jerusalem? the areas the British mandate defined as jerusalem?

It is consistent with the nearly universally accepted international view of the issue, as reaffirmed in 1980 by the UN Security Council resolution 478.  The corpus separatum refers to Jerusalem, as per the UN Security Council Resolution 181 (II): this is very clearly stated, without any ambiguity, and is not a peculiarly French position at all. The rest of the Israeli post-1949 border is recognized.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #522 on: May 02, 2012, 03:08:46 PM »

Think future discussion of that particular issue would be better elsewhere?
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Hash
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« Reply #523 on: May 02, 2012, 06:11:13 PM »

Hash, I was wondering...
how about a comparison between NDA 2012 and Pasqua-Villiers 1999 ?

Unfortunately, no map from Euro 1999 are available any longer on your old blog Tongue Sad

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In a bid to restore this terrible thread, I drew up a correlation coefficient between the two variables at a departmental level, and it was only 0.17, which is positive but weak. I did find a 0.37 correlation between Boutin and Sarko, though (at a cantonal level).

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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #524 on: May 02, 2012, 06:43:31 PM »

Do you have a link for results by constituency? Ought to be useful for working things out for the third part of the four General Elections.
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