France 2012: Official Results Thread
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rob in cal
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« Reply #275 on: April 22, 2012, 06:57:11 PM »

   Anyone have any feeling about what these results signify in terms of the upcoming parliamentary elections, in terms of strength of the parties etc..
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MaxQue
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« Reply #276 on: April 22, 2012, 06:59:16 PM »

Awful for the right, because FN could create many triangulars.
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Andrea
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« Reply #277 on: April 22, 2012, 07:02:48 PM »

ah, we still miss the French abroad.
Bayrou still have some fans in Taiwan.
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Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]
tsionebreicruoc
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« Reply #278 on: April 22, 2012, 07:06:56 PM »

Well, when you look at all definitive results that show pink because Hollande been the 1st, while that are traditionally rather blue places, like Haute-Loire it shows a Le Pen beyond 20, and a normal Mélenchon, it twistes a bit the départemental view then, and could eventually indicate that most of MLP vote express more a true rightist turn than an overall anti-sarkozist feeling. I mean the Right is still here all the way in those places, it's just going to a darker Right...

Surprised if Sarko won Rhône, but I don't know much about that area. Is Lyon a more rightist city than average?

Hmm, culturally yes, but who knows why the sane people of the city of Lyon choose the 'Socialist' Colomb for a while now...

He got elected in 2001 because the right was divided and he was easily reelected in 2008, because, according to polls, he had 85% approvals.

That's the weird thing when you look at the guy, but well, if they are happy with him...
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Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]
tsionebreicruoc
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« Reply #279 on: April 22, 2012, 07:09:12 PM »

MLP is so high in the whole North-East, not surprising she's high there, but she's really high, everywhere beyond 20% around there, and you can find some 25%...
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Democratic Hawk
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« Reply #280 on: April 22, 2012, 07:09:23 PM »

Seemngly, my family name is of Norman origin and stems from the town of Graye-sur-Mer, in Calvados, Basse-Normandie. I wonder how it will vote? That said, there's a town called Gray, in Haute-Saone, Franche-Comte (though not of connection)

The communes of Gray (32.2%), Arc-les-Gray (31.8%) & Gray-la-Ville (33.1%) for Hollande

Graye-sur-Mer: Sarkozy 29.8% (117); Hollande 28.3% (111); Le Pen 15.6% (61); Melenchon 12% (47) though Hollande has won Calvados (29.3%)
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Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]
tsionebreicruoc
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« Reply #281 on: April 22, 2012, 07:13:24 PM »

lol, seems like Le Figaro is almost happy of that big Le Pen:



Marine Le Pen's breakthrough relaunches the 2nd run
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Hash
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« Reply #282 on: April 22, 2012, 07:15:21 PM »

Surprised if Sarko won Rhône, but I don't know much about that area. Is Lyon a more rightist city than average?

Lyon is still the most 'bourgeois' city against 'bobo' Paris and 'populaire' Marseille, but like Paris, it is shifting left very rapidly with boboization and so forth. Hollande will likely win Lyon, and do very well in the bobo 1st and 4th arr'd, Sarko will sweep the bourgeois 2nd and 6th. Marine's performance in Lyon's leftie sh**thole burbs and the exurbs will be huge, Memelenchon will probably not do so swellingly in Venissieux, Givors or Vaulx-en-Velin.

...that in this very rural département in a quite leftist French région, Midi-Pyrénées, you can find about as much communes in blue than in pink...

But Hollande still outperformed there and Sarko and Le Pen underperformed, overall. Is Herault, to its south, not in the same region? Hollande did far worse there and Le Pen far better, although Sarko about the same.

Yeah, that's what I was saying in my stuff about climate and Mediterranean arch, Aveyron is part of South-West, doesn't belong to the Mediterranean climate area.

And all those départements that you can see in blue in the western half of the country are also quite rural, well, just enjoy to pass your mouse on all dpts and if you have an idea of where are most of French agglomerations/urbanized parts, you might see that what you were saying wouldn't be necessarily true...

Jesus Christ people, come on. You're describing voting patterns at a grade 3 level. My blog explains in with length, but "rural France" has never been homogeneous despite what so many idiots seem to think since the 1870s. Rural France has never been as a whole some massive right-wing strongholds. The DemSocs did best in rural areas in 1849, for starters. Religion or lack thereof, land ownership, social class and political tradition remains the best explanation of voting patterns in most of rural France. It might be appealing to say all rural areas are right-wing, but then the Ariege and Creuse must have some huge urban areas!
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Democratic Hawk
LucysBeau
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« Reply #283 on: April 22, 2012, 07:17:13 PM »

Yvelines: Sarkozy 34.2%; Hollande 27.3%; Le Pen 12.4%; Bayrou (11.2%) / Rhone: Sarkozy 30.8%; Hollande 26.9%; Le Pen 15.1%; Melenchon 10.7%

Just Paris and Seine-Saint-Denis now.
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #284 on: April 22, 2012, 07:18:56 PM »

Yvelines: Sarkozy 34.2%; Hollande 27.3%; Le Pen 12.4%; Bayrou (11.2%) / Rhone: Sarkozy 30.8%; Hollande 26.9%; Le Pen 15.1%; Melenchon 10.7%

My sh*tty departement has apparently remained sh*tty.

Waiting for Paris and 93, hopefully that will push Hollande up a bit.
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Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]
tsionebreicruoc
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« Reply #285 on: April 22, 2012, 07:20:39 PM »

Hollande accepted only one debate, to 'respect the tradition'.

Seems it could happen on the 2nd of May.

...that in this very rural département in a quite leftist French région, Midi-Pyrénées, you can find about as much communes in blue than in pink...

But Hollande still outperformed there and Sarko and Le Pen underperformed, overall. Is Herault, to its south, not in the same region? Hollande did far worse there and Le Pen far better, although Sarko about the same.

Yeah, that's what I was saying in my stuff about climate and Mediterranean arch, Aveyron is part of South-West, doesn't belong to the Mediterranean climate area.

And all those départements that you can see in blue in the western half of the country are also quite rural, well, just enjoy to pass your mouse on all dpts and if you have an idea of where are most of French agglomerations/urbanized parts, you might see that what you were saying wouldn't be necessarily true...

Jesus Christ people, come on. You're describing voting patterns at a grade 3 level. My blog explains in with length, but "rural France" has never been homogeneous despite what so many idiots seem to think since the 1870s. Rural France has never been as a whole some massive right-wing strongholds. The DemSocs did best in rural areas in 1849, for starters. Religion or lack thereof, land ownership, social class and political tradition remains the best explanation of voting patterns in most of rural France. It might be appealing to say all rural areas are right-wing, but then the Ariege and Creuse must have some huge urban areas!

C'mon, I was never implying this, the point of my post was precisely to say that you can't generalize. I know Limousin well enough, just for one, to know it, was just trying to show that the opposite wasn't necessarily true. Now, culturally, rural spaces in France, beyond voting patterns, would be culturally dominated by 'rightist ideas', which is indeed a big trait to describe a painting, but still.
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Hash
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« Reply #286 on: April 22, 2012, 07:21:11 PM »

The Bas-Rhin has some very amusing voting patterns looking through that Google stuff.

On a side note, I've advocating nuking Languedoc-Roussillon since 2010. I still think it's overdue. Or at least nuking the resort towns would be great.
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Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]
tsionebreicruoc
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« Reply #287 on: April 22, 2012, 07:23:20 PM »

On a side note, I've advocating nuking Languedoc-Roussillon since 2010. I still think it's overdue. Or at least nuking the resort towns would be great.

Focus on Cannes-Nice and especially all what's between 1st, thanks.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #288 on: April 22, 2012, 07:24:36 PM »

Jesus Christ people, come on. You're describing voting patterns at a grade 3 level. My blog explains in with length, but "rural France" has never been homogeneous despite what so many idiots seem to think since the 1870s. Rural France has never been as a whole some massive right-wing strongholds. The DemSocs did best in rural areas in 1849, for starters. Religion or lack thereof, land ownership, social class and political tradition remains the best explanation of voting patterns in most of rural France. It might be appealing to say all rural areas are right-wing, but then the Ariege and Creuse must have some huge urban areas!

Ah, I was wondering how long it would take you to raise to what might almost have been bait.
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Democratic Hawk
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« Reply #289 on: April 22, 2012, 07:25:26 PM »

Yvelines: Sarkozy 34.2%; Hollande 27.3%; Le Pen 12.4%; Bayrou (11.2%) / Rhone: Sarkozy 30.8%; Hollande 26.9%; Le Pen 15.1%; Melenchon 10.7%

My sh*tty departement has apparently remained sh*tty.

Waiting for Paris and 93, hopefully that will push Hollande up a bit.

Do you live in Rhone or Yvelines?

Anyway, the 93's in: Hollande 38.7%; Sarkozy 19.5%; Melenchon 17%; Le Pen 13.5%
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #290 on: April 22, 2012, 07:26:50 PM »

Poison Dwarf carries Lyon by a tad less than 700 votes.
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #291 on: April 22, 2012, 07:29:17 PM »

Yvelines: Sarkozy 34.2%; Hollande 27.3%; Le Pen 12.4%; Bayrou (11.2%) / Rhone: Sarkozy 30.8%; Hollande 26.9%; Le Pen 15.1%; Melenchon 10.7%

My sh*tty departement has apparently remained sh*tty.

Waiting for Paris and 93, hopefully that will push Hollande up a bit.

Do you live in Rhone or Yvelines?

Anyway, the 93's in: Hollande 38.7%; Sarkozy 19.5%; Melenchon 17%; Le Pen 13.5%

Yvelines. Vélizy-Villacoublay, to be precise (which is just at the border with Hauts-de-Seine and is more right-wing than the departement as a whole).
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Leftbehind
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« Reply #292 on: April 22, 2012, 07:30:06 PM »


Those figures are a bit presumptuous, aren't they? At 99.9% on Google's collating page, Le Pen looks a fair bit away from that 20%.
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Democratic Hawk
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« Reply #293 on: April 22, 2012, 07:31:10 PM »

Le Parisien is reporting Paris: Hollande 34.8%; Sarkozy 32.2%; Melanchon 11.1%; Bayrou 9.3%; Le Pen 6.2%; Jolly 4.2%
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homelycooking
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« Reply #294 on: April 22, 2012, 07:31:35 PM »

NDA victorious in his hometown by a whisker! Unfortunately for him, no luck in any of the other 37,000 communes.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #295 on: April 22, 2012, 07:31:55 PM »

Le Parisien is reporting Paris: Hollande 34.8%; Sarkozy 32.2%; Melanchon 11.1%; Bayrou 9.3%; Le Pen 6.2%; Jolly 4.2%

lolpoisondwarf
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #296 on: April 22, 2012, 07:32:34 PM »


Those figures are a bit presumptuous, aren't they? At 99.9% on Google's collating page, Le Pen looks a fair bit away from that 20%.

Well, what they published are probably the estimate of some polling firm. Le Monde's strength compared to other journals is that it is published on afternoons and therefore contains real results rather than gross estimates. Their electoral pages are usually pretty great with complete elections results by departements and in the main communes.
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #297 on: April 22, 2012, 07:33:44 PM »

Le Parisien is reporting Paris: Hollande 34.8%; Sarkozy 32.2%; Melanchon 11.1%; Bayrou 9.3%; Le Pen 6.2%; Jolly 4.2%

lolpoisondwarf

I'm actually surprised. I would never have imagined he would break 30% there.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #298 on: April 22, 2012, 07:34:35 PM »

Anyways...

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Democratic Hawk
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« Reply #299 on: April 22, 2012, 07:35:22 PM »

Yvelines: Sarkozy 34.2%; Hollande 27.3%; Le Pen 12.4%; Bayrou (11.2%) / Rhone: Sarkozy 30.8%; Hollande 26.9%; Le Pen 15.1%; Melenchon 10.7%

My sh*tty departement has apparently remained sh*tty.

Waiting for Paris and 93, hopefully that will push Hollande up a bit.

Do you live in Rhone or Yvelines?

Anyway, the 93's in: Hollande 38.7%; Sarkozy 19.5%; Melenchon 17%; Le Pen 13.5%

Yvelines. Vélizy-Villacoublay, to be precise (which is just at the border with Hauts-de-Seine and is more right-wing than the departement as a whole).

I see the bigger of your neighbours to the north-west is very much Sarkozy country
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