France 2012: Official Results Thread
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Author Topic: France 2012: Official Results Thread  (Read 144437 times)
Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #375 on: April 23, 2012, 11:23:42 AM »

Vélizy results :

Sarko 33.85%
Hollande 26.64%
Le Pen 13.27%
Bayrou 10.71%
Mélenchon 9.33%
Joly 2.34%
Dupont-Aignan 2.08%
Poutou 1.01%
Arthaud 0.39%
Cheminade 0.37%

Yep, it still sucks.
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #376 on: April 23, 2012, 11:25:28 AM »

Results by (new) constituency



It's a real pity I have an exam tomorrow (in macroeconomics, no less) and that I start work on April 30, but I'll try to have some stats up soon. In any case, Geoclip's greatness will allow me to be lazy and steal their maps.

I assume Hollande won a majority of them ? I'm curious to know how many though.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #377 on: April 23, 2012, 11:32:25 AM »


I don't have the book in front of me at the moment, but something like:

A - Farming households, B - Rural households generally, C - Urban households.
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« Reply #378 on: April 23, 2012, 11:36:34 AM »

Anybody got some info on the areas where Panzergirl did worse than Daddy? What is the likely explanation?

Two main things:

a. Urban areas or increasingly suburban areas - almost all of them. Since 1984, the FN vote has moved away from the downtown cores of all cities and has become very much of an exurban/rural vote. White flight/immigration, high property prices, boboisation all explain why the FN has gradually declined in cities. This is, of course, very clear in Paris but it likely explains Rhone/Ain/Loire, Alsace, Haute-Garonne, Herault and potentially Isere.
b. In a few cases, those spots where the 2002ish FN vote was fairly well-off of the CSP+ socioprofessional categories. Sarko stole all of them in 2007, apparently he kept a few of his 2007 gains with the most well-off/CSP+ FN voters. Likely explains Alpes-Maritimes.

I'll need to look at cantonal results in Savoie to see what happened there. Probably factor a.
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Hashemite
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« Reply #379 on: April 23, 2012, 11:59:47 AM »

In metro France/Corsica by canton, there is a strong positive correlation of 0.466 between the percentage of ouvriers and the vote for Panzergirl. There is a similar 0.475 correlation between the percentage of ouvriers+employees ('salariat modeste') and the vote for Panzergirl. In 2007, the correlation between ouvrier and Daddy was 0.471, in 2002 it was only 0.237.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #380 on: April 23, 2012, 12:07:02 PM »

Where can you see how the Austrian French people voted ?

For that matter, where can you find out how other countries voted?
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« Reply #381 on: April 23, 2012, 12:09:18 PM »

Cantonal version of the FN 2002 vs. 2012 map:

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Hatman 🍁
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« Reply #382 on: April 23, 2012, 12:09:54 PM »

Where can you see how the Austrian French people voted ?

For that matter, where can you find out how other countries voted?
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danny
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« Reply #383 on: April 23, 2012, 12:22:50 PM »

Results in Israel (7,196 total votes):

Sarkozy: 82.74%
Hollande: 7.62%
MLP: 3.99%

Who would those voters be? Mostly French Jews living in Israel but not (yet) naturalized, or just the usual expat population? Those numbers make me sort of suspect the former.

I don't know but I was assuming so, especially since there were over 49,000 eligible voters so it was only 15% turnout.
Also note that this does not include Jerusalem (which had a polling place) which has a sizable population of French immigrants, since France doesn't recognize Jerusalem as being part of Israel.

PS, are naturalized Israelis ineligible to vote in these elections?
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DL
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« Reply #384 on: April 23, 2012, 12:27:09 PM »

I wonder how French citizens in Canada voted. There is a very large French community in Montreal now...I suspect they are mostly pretty left-leaning.
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tpfkaw
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« Reply #385 on: April 23, 2012, 12:31:37 PM »

So it looks like Le Pen lost votes in conservative areas and gained in leftist areas?  Makes sense.
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #386 on: April 23, 2012, 12:39:48 PM »

Uhhhhh...wow - http://pate.blogs.france24.com/article/2012/04/11/francois-hollande-jay-z-kanye-west-niggas-paris-campaign-video-france-elec-0
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ZuWo
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« Reply #387 on: April 23, 2012, 12:50:55 PM »

I haven't found a direct link to the results, but here's what the Swiss press has to say about how French citizens in Switzerland voted:

(Voters: 49 522, Turnout: 46%)

Sarkozy 41.75%
Hollande 20.19%
Bayrou 14.76%
Mélenchon 7.33%
Le Pen 7.17%
Joly 5.35%

http://www.rts.ch/info/suisse/3943008-les-francais-de-suisse-ont-massivement-vote-sarkozy.html
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #388 on: April 23, 2012, 01:00:17 PM »

Ahhh, the French Embassy in Austria has the results of Austrian-French voters:

HOLLANDE François         32,12%
SARKOZY Nicolas         28,09%
BAYROU François         15,49%
JOLY Eva                         10,27%
MELENCHON Jean-Luc     8,68%
LE PEN Marine                   2,77%
DUPONT-AIGNAN Nicolas 1,06%
POUTOU Philippe           0,61%
CHEMINADE Jacques       0,53%
ARTHAUD Nathalie           0,37%

Good result for Joly !

http://www.ambafrance-at.org/Resultats-du-premier-tour-de-l
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Tetro Kornbluth
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« Reply #389 on: April 23, 2012, 01:15:26 PM »

Ireland (on what looks like a less than 20% turnout):

http://www.ambafrance-ie.org/Presidential-election-First-round

JOLY Eva   149
LE PEN Marine   84
SARKOZY Nicolas   514
MELENCHON Jean-Luc   210
POUTOU Philippe   18
ARTHAUD Nathalie   7
CHEMINADE Jacques   8
BAYROU François   293
DUPONT-AIGNAN Nicolas   45
HOLLANDE François   617

Joly beat Le Pen, at least.

Also found the total votes for Francais De L'etranger:

Mme Eva JOLY   21 947    5,44
Mme Marine LE PEN   23 995    5,95
M. Nicolas SARKOZY   153 301    38,00
M. Jean-Luc MÉLENCHON   33 503    8,31
M. Philippe POUTOU   2 843    0,70
Mme Nathalie ARTHAUD   1 137    0,28
M. Jacques CHEMINADE   1 457    0,36
M. François BAYROU   45 867    11,37
M. Nicolas DUPONT-AIGNAN   5 148    1,28
M. François HOLLANDE   114 197    28,31

Sarkozy comfortable winner abroad it seems. See: http://elections.interieur.gouv.fr/PR2012/000/099/index.html
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Tetro Kornbluth
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« Reply #390 on: April 23, 2012, 01:28:14 PM »

So what are Sarkozy's odds of survival? Maybe 1/5 or something like that?

1%.  And I'm being generous there just because the PS is guaranteed to take the wrong strategy to winning, i.e. let's run to not lose, which is the only way of losing.  A competent party and candidate would be 100% assured of election in this type of "Mickey Mouse" struggle.

I'm tempted to also say that the PS chances in 2017 are somewhere around 1% also, but that is unnecessary dick-waving.

Given that, as of yet, I have felt no need to stock up on food and vegetables despite your previous prognostications on the European crisis, may I have your permission to take your predictions with a grain of salt?
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #391 on: April 23, 2012, 01:37:46 PM »

So, then. Context and all that.

Hollande polled 28.6%. This is the highest for a PS candidate since Mitterrand's 34.1% in 1988 and is the second highest (again, behind 1988) for a PS/SFIO/Etc candidate when there's been hard left competition on the ballot. It is also the highest for a challenging candidate since Mitterrand in 1974 (when he polled 43.2%, with the assistance of the Commies).

Sarkozy polled 27.2%. This is the second lowest ever polled by an incumbent (Chirac only managed his usual fifth of the poll in 2002). The complexities of the French Right make further comparisons a little tricky. Still, it's notable that the combined score of Sarkozy and Bayrou (36.3%) is about the same as the combined score of Chirac and Barre in 1988 (36.5)%. This is not especially encouraging for the Poison Dwarf for obvious reasons.

Le Pen polled 17.9%. As has been extensively reported, this is the FN's highest ever total in a Presidential election. The increase on 2007 is huge, needless to say. The difference between 2012 and 2002 is less stunning (at 1.04%) than initial exit polls indicated, though pointing that out feels like straw-clutching.

Mélenchon polled 11.1%. While this was not as high as shown by the polls, it is still the best Communist/Fellow Traveller result since Marchais took 15.3% in 1981. Together, Le Pen and Mélenchon polled 29%, which is a massive anti-system vote no matter how you cut it. This is also the first time that a 'Communist' candidate has finished above the designative 'Centrist' candidate of record. Seriously.

Bayrou polled 9.1%. This is (just about) less than half of what he polled in 2007, but still higher than he managed in 2002 (6.8%). Still, it's the second lowest total ever polled by the designated 'Centrist' candidate.

Joly polled 2.3%. This is on the low side for Green Presidential candidates, but higher than Voynet in 2007.

There were other candidates as well, of course.
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Andrea
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« Reply #392 on: April 23, 2012, 02:03:32 PM »

FWIW, here's expats results from 2007
http://www.assemblee-afe.fr/IMG/pdf/PR_tour1_2007_V2.pdf
http://www.assemblee-afe.fr/IMG/pdf/MAE_Resultats_2eme_tour.pdf

Le Figaro reported the aggregate for the new North Europe parliamentary constituency: Sarkozy 33.56% Hollande 32.28%, Bayrou 13.9% Melenchon 7.5% Joly 6.9% Le Pen 3.3%
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Negusa Nagast 🚀
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« Reply #393 on: April 23, 2012, 03:11:48 PM »

I'm not really well versed in French politics. Why/how did Le Pen do so well?
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #394 on: April 23, 2012, 03:49:14 PM »

So, then. Context and all that.

Hollande polled 28.6%. This is the highest for a PS candidate since Mitterrand's 34.1% in 1988 and is the second highest (again, behind 1988) for a PS/SFIO/Etc candidate when there's been hard left competition on the ballot. It is also the highest for a challenging candidate since Mitterrand in 1974 (when he polled 43.2%, with the assistance of the Commies).

Sarkozy polled 27.2%. This is the second lowest ever polled by an incumbent (Chirac only managed his usual fifth of the poll in 2002). The complexities of the French Right make further comparisons a little tricky. Still, it's notable that the combined score of Sarkozy and Bayrou (36.3%) is about the same as the combined score of Chirac and Barre in 1988 (36.5)%. This is not especially encouraging for the Poison Dwarf for obvious reasons.

Le Pen polled 17.9%. As has been extensively reported, this is the FN's highest ever total in a Presidential election. The increase on 2007 is huge, needless to say. The difference between 2012 and 2002 is less stunning (at 1.04%) than initial exit polls indicated, though pointing that out feels like straw-clutching.

Mélenchon polled 11.1%. While this was not as high as shown by the polls, it is still the best Communist/Fellow Traveller result since Marchais took 15.3% in 1981. Together, Le Pen and Mélenchon polled 29%, which is a massive anti-system vote no matter how you cut it. This is also the first time that a 'Communist' candidate has finished above the designative 'Centrist' candidate of record. Seriously.

Bayrou polled 9.1%. This is (just about) less than half of what he polled in 2007, but still higher than he managed in 2002 (6.8%). Still, it's the second lowest total ever polled by the designated 'Centrist' candidate.

Joly polled 2.3%. This is on the low side for Green Presidential candidates, but higher than Voynet in 2007.

There were other candidates as well, of course.

This is a very useful and informative post. You should just have added that the combined total of the far-left candidates (taken as the three Troskyst outfits) is at its lowest since 1969. Wink
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rob in cal
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« Reply #395 on: April 23, 2012, 04:04:52 PM »

Do we have a breakdown of the voting intentions of the Melenchon and Joly voters in the second round. Of course the vast majority will be for Hollande, but I'm wondering just how strong for him.
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« Reply #396 on: April 23, 2012, 04:27:36 PM »

Just looking at the map. Assuming western Paris is very much like Cities of London and Westminster constituency?
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MaxQue
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« Reply #397 on: April 23, 2012, 04:37:15 PM »

It's very wealthy. Old money, similar to Westminster, I suppose.
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« Reply #398 on: April 23, 2012, 04:47:49 PM »

New map!

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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #399 on: April 23, 2012, 06:54:30 PM »

lolvendee
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