France 2012: Official Results Thread

[Sibboleth]

So, then. Context and all that.

Hollande polled 28.6%. This is the highest for a PS candidate since Mitterrand's 34.1% in 1988 and is the second highest (again, behind 1988) for a PS/SFIO/Etc candidate when there's been hard left competition on the ballot. It is also the highest for a challenging candidate since Mitterrand in 1974 (when he polled 43.2%, with the assistance of the Commies).

Sarkozy polled 27.2%. This is the second lowest ever polled by an incumbent (Chirac only managed his usual fifth of the poll in 2002). The complexities of the French Right make further comparisons a little tricky. Still, it's notable that the combined score of Sarkozy and Bayrou (36.3%) is about the same as the combined score of Chirac and Barre in 1988 (36.5)%. This is not especially encouraging for the Poison Dwarf for obvious reasons.

Le Pen polled 17.9%. As has been extensively reported, this is the FN's highest ever total in a Presidential election. The increase on 2007 is huge, needless to say. The difference between 2012 and 2002 is less stunning (at 1.04%) than initial exit polls indicated, though pointing that out feels like straw-clutching.

Mélenchon polled 11.1%. While this was not as high as shown by the polls, it is still the best Communist/Fellow Traveller result since Marchais took 15.3% in 1981. Together, Le Pen and Mélenchon polled 29%, which is a massive anti-system vote no matter how you cut it. This is also the first time that a 'Communist' candidate has finished above the designative 'Centrist' candidate of record. Seriously.

Bayrou polled 9.1%. This is (just about) less than half of what he polled in 2007, but still higher than he managed in 2002 (6.8%). Still, it's the second lowest total ever polled by the designated 'Centrist' candidate.

Joly polled 2.3%. This is on the low side for Green Presidential candidates, but higher than Voynet in 2007.

There were other candidates as well, of course.

[Andrea]

FWIW, here's expats results from 2007
http://www.assemblee-afe.fr/IMG/pdf/PR_tour1_2007_V2.pdf
http://www.assemblee-afe.fr/IMG/pdf/MAE_Resultats_2eme_tour.pdf

Le Figaro reported the aggregate for the new North Europe parliamentary constituency: Sarkozy 33.56% Hollande 32.28%, Bayrou 13.9% Melenchon 7.5% Joly 6.9% Le Pen 3.3%

[Nagas]

I'm not really well versed in French politics. Why/how did Le Pen do so well?

[Californian Tony]

So, then. Context and all that.

Hollande polled 28.6%. This is the highest for a PS candidate since Mitterrand's 34.1% in 1988 and is the second highest (again, behind 1988) for a PS/SFIO/Etc candidate when there's been hard left competition on the ballot. It is also the highest for a challenging candidate since Mitterrand in 1974 (when he polled 43.2%, with the assistance of the Commies).

Sarkozy polled 27.2%. This is the second lowest ever polled by an incumbent (Chirac only managed his usual fifth of the poll in 2002). The complexities of the French Right make further comparisons a little tricky. Still, it's notable that the combined score of Sarkozy and Bayrou (36.3%) is about the same as the combined score of Chirac and Barre in 1988 (36.5)%. This is not especially encouraging for the Poison Dwarf for obvious reasons.

Le Pen polled 17.9%. As has been extensively reported, this is the FN's highest ever total in a Presidential election. The increase on 2007 is huge, needless to say. The difference between 2012 and 2002 is less stunning (at 1.04%) than initial exit polls indicated, though pointing that out feels like straw-clutching.

Mélenchon polled 11.1%. While this was not as high as shown by the polls, it is still the best Communist/Fellow Traveller result since Marchais took 15.3% in 1981. Together, Le Pen and Mélenchon polled 29%, which is a massive anti-system vote no matter how you cut it. This is also the first time that a 'Communist' candidate has finished above the designative 'Centrist' candidate of record. Seriously.

Bayrou polled 9.1%. This is (just about) less than half of what he polled in 2007, but still higher than he managed in 2002 (6.8%). Still, it's the second lowest total ever polled by the designated 'Centrist' candidate.

Joly polled 2.3%. This is on the low side for Green Presidential candidates, but higher than Voynet in 2007.

There were other candidates as well, of course.

This is a very useful and informative post. You should just have added that the combined total of the far-left candidates (taken as the three Troskyst outfits) is at its lowest since 1969.

[rob in cal]

Do we have a breakdown of the voting intentions of the Melenchon and Joly voters in the second round. Of course the vast majority will be for Hollande, but I'm wondering just how strong for him.

[You kip if you want to...]

Just looking at the map. Assuming western Paris is very much like Cities of London and Westminster constituency?

[Senator MaxQue]

It's very wealthy. Old money, similar to Westminster, I suppose.

[Hashemite]

New map!

[Sibboleth]

lolvendee

[adma]

I'm having problems accessing Le Monde on my computer; any useful alternatives?  (Oh, and anything with scaleable maps of communes?)

[Sibboleth]

I'm having problems accessing Le Monde on my computer; any useful alternatives?  (Oh, and anything with scaleable maps of communes?)

There is, inevitably, google: http://www.google.com/elections/ed/fr/results

And also the official site here: http://elections.interieur.gouv.fr/PR2012/index.html

[adma]

For this particular purpose, Google doesn't work for me either (unfortunately, I'm not in a position to upgrade to Google Chrome, which may also explain my Le Monde problems).  As for the official site; unfortunately, sans maps, it's a cumbersome devil to navigate...

[Sibboleth]

How about this one: http://www.publicsenat.fr/lcp/politique/carte-des-elections-presidentielles

[adma]

How about this one: http://www.publicsenat.fr/lcp/politique/carte-des-elections-presidentielles

That one worked.  (Thanks.)

[So rightwing that I broke the Political Compass!]

Perhaps most notable- the young are the most conservative generation in France except for those over 60.

Any information on voting by ethnicity and religion?

[Colbert]

I have to admit i had sh**ting a lot. So, i will not made no one prevision and only bring maps (i have even made a cheminade map^^)

see you tomorrow folks

[Sibboleth]

Currently working on some pretty candidate maps. Not sure when they'll be up, mind.

[Leftbehind]

Perhaps most notable- the young are the most conservative generation in France except for those over 60.

Well it's certainly true that they're not as left-leaning as you might expect, but the Others are all important to make that assumption. A say, higher vote for Green/Trotskyists in the young, appear in that graph in such a way as if they were a force of the Right. Although I wouldn't be surprised if it were true - another reason to hate my generation.

[Sibboleth]

[Leftbehind]

Beautiful.

I was surprised at how good a job Google were doing at collating and mapping the results, but when colouring the parties shares, you couldn't see the variation above whatsoever for the main two.

[Californian Tony]

Thank you Al. If only I hadn't been so busy until yesterday (and so tired since then) I would have done some maps as well.

[So rightwing that I broke the Political Compass!]

Perhaps most notable- the young are the most conservative generation in France except for those over 60.

Any information on voting by ethnicity and religion?

Also, look at the voting by class. National Front does best among the working class(ouvrier), but steadily declines as you move up the income ladder... until you reach the upperclass(artisan, commercant, chef d'enterprise), where NF registers it's second best performance.

Also notably the upperclass registers 0% support for minor parties. And the fact that Bayrou does badly among them... I'd have thought he's precisely the kind of socially liberal establishmentarian that would appeal to them.

[Tender Branson]

New OpinionWay survey for the 2nd round:

[Tender Branson]

Still not over for Sarkozy, but it looks bleaker for him every day ...

[Hashemite]

If anybody is interested, given that I have five days off, I can throw some constituency maps for each candidate together.